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Overview Of The Economic Situation

Macro Developments of Romania “The Tiger of the East” Mariya Kaneva Stilyana Kandjeva April 1 st , 2009. Overview Of The Economic Situation. 1997 – 2000 recession Domestic consumption and investment fueled GDP growth Rise in inflation (2007-2008)

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Overview Of The Economic Situation

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  1. Macro Developments of Romania“The Tiger of the East”Mariya KanevaStilyana KandjevaApril 1st, 2009

  2. Overview Of The Economic Situation • 1997 – 2000 recession • Domestic consumption and investment fueled GDP growth • Rise in inflation (2007-2008) • Strong GDP growth in 2008 moderated by the financial crisis

  3. Goods Market

  4. Goods Market

  5. Goods Market • Real GDP growth – 8% (2008) • GDP per capita - $12,500 (2008) • GDP composition by sector: • Agriculture – 8.1% • Industry – 36% • Services – 55.9% • FDI inflows – 6% of GDP (2007)

  6. Goods Market • Exports: • $59.75 billion f.o.b. (2008 est.) • Commodities: machinery and equipment, textiles and footwear, metals and metal products, machinery and equipment, minerals and fuels, chemicals, agricultural products • Exporting partners: Italy, Germany, France, Turkey, Hungary, UK • Imports: • $92.09 billion f.o.b. (2008 est.) • Commodities: machinery and equipment, fuels and minerals, chemicals, textile and products, metals, agricultural products • Import partners: Germany, Italy, Hungary, Russia, France, Turkey, Austria • Current account balance: -$28.03 billion (2008 est.)/ 12.6% of estimated GDP

  7. Expected contraction of real GDP Current account deficit to narrow sharply Key Indicators – Forecast

  8. Investment and Saving

  9. Disinflation trend – reversed Inflation targeting Raised interest rates Increased credit growth Asset Market

  10. Labor Force – 9.32 million (2008 est) By occupation: agriculture: 29.7%  industry: 23.2%  services: 47.1% Unemployment rate 3.6% (2008 est.) Labor Market

  11. Labor Market (cont’d)

  12. Conclusion • Romania to seek funding from the EU in 2009 • Contraction in Real GDP • Recovery of the economy in 2010 • Current account deficit to narrow sharply (in 2008, 12.6% of GDP) • Romania has potential • One challenge – to continue structural reforms and sound fiscal policies after the recession

  13. Economic Data. Economist Intelligence Unit. March 11, 2009. http://www.economist.com/countries/Romania/profile.cfm?folder=Profile-Economic%20Data Factsheet: Romania. Economist Intelligence Unit. March 11, 2009. http://www.economist.com/countries/Romania/profile.cfm?folder=Profile-FactSheet Romania. The World Factbook. March 19, 2009. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ro.html#Econ Country Brief 2008: Romania. World Bank. October 2008. http://www.worldbank.org.ro/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/ECAEXT/ROMANIAEXTN/0,,contentMDK:20636934~menuPK:287302~pagePK:141137~piPK:141127~theSitePK:275154,00.html Romanian Macroeconomic Insight. Macroanalitica.com. May 2008. http://macroanalitica.com/docs/MMI_May_2008_v4.pdf Monetary Policy. Central Bank Romania. http://www.bnro.ro/Monetary-Policy-1864.aspx List of Sources

  14. Thank you for your attention!

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