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Beyond the Bathtub

Beyond the Bathtub. Lesley Ewing California Coastal Commission December 19, 2012. Beyond the Bathtub. XXXXXXXX Climate Change. Best Available Science. ?????. Sea Level Rise Task Force Interim Guidance Document. ?????. One Size Does NOT Fit All. Photos (Clockwise from top left)

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Beyond the Bathtub

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  1. Beyond the Bathtub Lesley Ewing California Coastal Commission December 19, 2012

  2. Beyond the Bathtub XXXXXXXX Climate Change

  3. Best Available Science ????? Sea Level Rise Task Force Interim Guidance Document ?????

  4. One Size Does NOT Fit All Photos (Clockwise from top left) Sunset Beach; El Segundo Power Plant; Port of LA; Santa Monica Pier; Asilomar Beach; Seymour Center, Santa Cruz; Pacifica.

  5. SLR Concerns for Permits New development should be safe from erosion, flooding or wave impacts over its life – without shore protection. Long-term Beach Change Erosion for 75 or 100 years* PLUS Seasonal Beach Change Wave & Water Level Changes Water level from high tide PLUS 75 or 100 years* of sea rise PLUS Waves from 100-year storm (1% probability of occurrence)

  6. SLR Concerns for Permits New development should be safe from erosion, flooding or wave impacts over its life – without shore protection. Long-term Beach Change Erosion for 75 or 100 years* PLUS Seasonal Beach Change Wave & Water Level Changes Water level from high tide PLUS 75 or 100 years* of sea rise PLUS Waves from 100-year storm (1% probability of occurrence)

  7. SLR Concerns for Permits New development should be safe from erosion, flooding or wave impacts over its life – without shore protection. Long-term Bluff Changes Slope Stability with a Factor of Safety > 1.5 PLUS Erosion for 75 or 100 years (life of structure) Setback = FS (1.5) + (Annual Erosion Rate x life of structure)

  8. SLR Concerns for Permits New development should be safe from erosion, flooding or wave impacts over its life – without shore protection. Long-term Bluff Changes Slope Stability with a Factor of Safety > 1.5 PLUS Erosion for 75 or 100 years (life of structure) Setback = FS (1.5) + (Annual Erosion Rate x life of structure)

  9. SLR Concerns for Planning • LCPs are Key to Addressing SLR • Land Use Plans • Kinds of Development • Locations Development • Intensity of Development • Resource Protection Policies • Hazards Element • Safety Element • Implementing Ordinances Source: San Diego Foundation, Focus 2050

  10. Summary and Questions “There will be time to deal with climate change…... But there will not be a better time. There will only be worse times.” David Remnick, No More Magical Thinking, New Yorker, 19Nov2012.

  11. Coastal Commission Policy Guidance – coming soon www.coastal.ca.gov

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