Infrastructure Damage in ShakeOut (&ARkStorm)

1. Infrastructure Damage in ShakeOut (&ARkStorm) RESIN seminar, UC Berkeley, 30 Sep 2009 Keith Porter, Associate Research Professor Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering University of Colorado at Boulder

2. Damage & social-science studies Earth-science effects modeled by several SCEC experts, discussed and revised after a large conference Consequent damage assessed by 19 study groups: • HAZUS study, replaced piecewise by research teams, expert panels, & combinations • Informed by computer models • Grounded in historic evidence • Acknowledge need to extrapolate from past experience and limited analysis Economic analysis and emergency response outcomes by USC, OES, CU, and others

3. Infrastructure damage + elevators, hazmat, and community impacts on Palm Springs, CA

4. Charge to researchers and panelists • Panels included operators, maintenance personnel, PIOs, many of whom who were already engaged with Caltech & USGS. Coordinating agencies little help. • Scope & duration of panels (3.5 hr) provided with the invitation • Researchers were top experts in their field, e.g., Scawthorn • Acquire & accept hazard information • Review findings of “upstream” lifelines (power, water, roads…) • Characterize assets at risk, past studies, past events • Interpret computer models, if available, but acknowledge differences in scale, interaction, and other issues of extrapolation etc. • Produce one realistic damage outcome, depiction of restoration (low stakes?). Depiction evolved during the discussion, sometimes accommodating political sensitivities. Spanned from granular to systemic damage & restoration: why & where would damage occur, how would restoration occur? • Identify promising mitigation measures, research needs. (Carrot) • Later, review studies by others, revisit findings (lifeline interaction) • Schedule: 3-6 months

5. MMI, PGA, PGV, Sa(0.3), Sa(1.0), Sa(3.0) maps produced Provided to damage estimation teams and panels: ground motion maps, showing realistic directionality effects (downtown LA, etc.) cannot by duplicated using traditional approaches. Before physics-based modeling, loss < 1/3 of that modeled here

6. Scawthorn fire following earthquake study • 1,600 ignitions requiring a fire engine • 1,200 exceed capability of 1st engine • Orange County & LA basin: dozens of large fires merge into conflagrations destroying 100s of blocks • 200 million square feet burnt ≈ 133,000 single family dwellings • Property loss: $65 billion • No Santa Ana winds, not worst case • Study vetted by top state and county fire officials with relationships w Shakeout leaders & Scawthon 1989 Loma Prieta 1994 Northridge

7. Electric power study 10 experts from 5 agencies find: • Immediate loss of power throughout region • Collapse of some high-tension towers, damage to transformers on overhead poles • Generating plants taken offline for inspection • Interesting feedback & revision occurred • Thinking through the scenario & considering LL interaction led to mitigation actions LA, Riverside, & San Bern. Counties: • 30-50% of service restored in 24 hrs • 75-90% restored in 3 days, ~100% in 1-4 mos Ventura, Orange, & Imperial Counties: • 90% restored in 2 days Kern & San Diego Counties: • 90% restored in 24 hr Transmission lines & power plants 1971 San Fernando Earthquake

8. ARkStorm Scenario: same approach • Hazard info • Windspeed maps, floodmaps (depth & velocity; riverine and coastal), wave heights, etc. in KMZ • Damage assessments similar to ShakeOut • + Ag, offshore, coastal, environmental… • Vetting by review groups as appopriate

9. Thanks keith.porter@colorado.edu (626) 233-9758