Europe & Asia

1. Europe & Asia Defense Issues and Asia’s Future Security Architecture (Michael E. O’Hanlon) Bettina Roehr 4013R374-7

2. Content • Security Challenges in East Asia • North Korea • State Failure • China • Existing Mechanisms to address Challenges • China • State Collapse • North Korea • Potential Future Arrangements • North Korea • Chinas Rise • Failed States & Nontraditional Threats • Conclusion

3. Key Dates North Korea • 1990’s North Korea began developing a clandestine uranium-enrichment program •  violating the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) • 2002 admits clandestine uranium enrichment  U.S. challenger North Korea after discovering the uranium enrichment program • 2003 North Korea withdraws from NPT after it’s violation  Yongbyong nuclear facility reactivated • 2006 underground Nuclear Test • 2007 revival of Six-Party Talks  3 key parts of Yongbyon shut down • 2009 second Test of Nuclear Weapons • 2013 third Nuclear Test

4. Security Challenges in East Asia: North Korea Dangers imposed by North Koreas Nuclear Arsenal • Selling of nuclear technology or material to terrorists • Potential State Collapse, leading to nuclear materials falling into wrong hands • Nuclear Domino Effect in North East Asia-Pacific

5. Security Challenges in East Asia: North Korea • Fatal Argument: giving away to North Koreas Nuclearization without pressure or diplomacy to denuclearize • Too optimistic Argument: Accepting as a tolerable development on the world stage

6. Security Challenges in East Asia: State failure and Terrorism • National Security and State Failure affect global security • Failed States are Safe Havens for Terrorists

7. Security Challenges in East Asia: China • China reestablish position as “Middle Kingdom” • Structuralist Argument:”Any time a great rising power encounters an established one, war is likely as they sort out their relative places in a new international order.” (282) • Competition with U.S. over Natural Resources (e.g. Oil) • Competition with U.S. over ocean fishery • China possibly attack of other countries (Japan, Taiwan, Russia) over disputed resources, would drag the U.S. into war

8. Security Challenges in East Asia: China • Constraints on Conflict • Nuclear Weapons serve as deterrent to Total War • Wealth and power do not depend on direct physical control of land masses • Integration into the international economy is nearly essential for job creation and national stability

9. Security Challenges in East Asia: China Will China Challenge a regional power? • Japan (e.g. territorial issues) • Might trade deficits and effects on the global environment lead to conflict? • Strong economic relationship btw. China and U.S. • Chinas growing economy might create tensions but not war • Economic interdependency what purpose could a war have

10. Existing Mechanisms: China • bilateral alliances (e.g. Japan & U.S.) • Anchor the U.S. in Asia • U.S. position in Asia deters Chinas use of force & military build-up • U.S. aims at a broader security community • Reassure non-allies • Low risk of weakening • Trilateral Coordination & Oversight Group • Japan expands security dialogue with Korea and Australia • Multilateral global Institutions • China as a member of the World Trade Organization • Danger of Multi global Institutions • Two Blocks of States • China might risk a crisis

11. Existing Mechanisms: State Collapse • Nuclear-Armed Pakistan • Rapid Cooperation • Military means rather useless • ‘surgical strikes’ require intelligence about exact location • ‘Caged Tigers’ • Stabilize situation • Large scale undertaking • Lacking capacity

12. Existing Mechanisms: North Korea • Cooperation of Multiple Regional Actors • Six-Party Talks as framework • Not always successful • North Korea split the other 5 parties at key issues • Giving more time to North Korea to develop its’ Nuclear Arsenal

13. Existing Mechanisms • Basis & Framework to address North Korea is sound • Strategy within this framework needs to be improved • Bilateral Alliances are most effective to address Chinas rise and fencing it • Stronger coordination and better adjustment to ongoing amendments in existing key bilateral alliances • A New Security Agenda, including New Mechanisms are strongly needed to address failing states

14. Potential Future Arrangements: North Korea • New policy is needed (Authors approach) • greater economic & diplomatic power vs. nuclear weapons, isolation & international difficulties • Status quo unsustainable • BUT international relations, more trade, investment, assistance • “hawk engagement” (others) • Diplomacy is massively applied, intending it to fail • Reveal North Korea as main offender in negotiations & diplomatic breakdown • Easier to punish North Korea • “Perry process” (others) • Step-by-step roadmap for better relations • Bilateral talks & diplomatic tools

15. Potential Future Arrangements: North Korea • What if North Korea collapses? • South Korean & US bilateral alliance provides basis for joint training and planning • Current command issue needs to be resolved • Japans restricted involvement in security alliance, regarding military operation • Role of Self-Defense Force extremely limited • China important consultant • No involvement in planning and implementation • Chinas relatively close ties to North Korea

16. Potential Future Arrangements: Chinas Rise • Two kinds of Security Challenges • Immediate: Direct threat to U.S. allies • Long-Run: Rising influence of China & declining influence of the U.S. • Strong & well fit bilateral alliances • Healthy internally & perception of broader region • Wider regional security dialogues • Most Asian countries not allies of the U.S. • U.S. avoiding distraction • U.S. often to concerned with global war on terror • regional disputes & concerns usually not on jihadism

17. Potential Future Arrangements: Chinas Rise • Chinas adapting security policy • Downplay of territorial disputes • 2001 bilateral friendship treaty with Russia • Establishment of new Security Organizations • Shanghai Cooperation Organization • Strengthening of political & economic relations in South East Asia • Making deals with authoritarian governments in times when the U.S. restrict relationships

18. Potential Future Arrangements: Chinas Rise • U.S. should take a pragmatic approach • Address near-term regional problems (e.g. piracy) • Address long-term goals in broadening security community • Use bilateral contacts & regional forums • Annual summits of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation • Symbolic for potential inclusion of China • Short term challenges • Potential use of force against Taiwan & South China Sea • Overlapping economic interest • Reinforcement of claim on specific regions rather than perusing regional hegemony

19. Potential Future Arrangements: Chinas Rise • U.S. presence in South Korea • Beneficial for Japan South Korea Relations • Reassure South Koreans in potential disputes with Japan • Protects Japan from being singularized • U.S. facilitates a trilateral network • Confidence building, military exchanges • In the long-term it is important that citizens support such partnership • Rather unlikely that South East Asia will formalize security partnership with the U.S. • Countries avoid antagonizing China

20. Potential Future Arrangements: Chinas Rise • U.S. strategies • Increased Subtle strategic thinking • Using surprise to tackle problems • More sensitivity • Engagement in regional dialogues • Tailor aid packages, joint military exercises and policy intervention to local needs

21. Potential Future Arrangements: Failed States & Nontraditional Threats • Create confidence and cooperation among major powers • Influence traditional security dilemmas • Fight poverty • Manage environmental damage • Tackling immediate interests may create long term broader regional stability • Increased collaboration tasks • training for peacekeeping & humanitarian relief, search-and-rescue exercises, counter piracy &counterdrug operations • Neutral States may be included (e.g. Russia and China) • Transparency about some military operations

22. Potential Future Arrangements: Failed States & Nontraditional Threats • Aiming at: Meaningful Military Capacity & capability to rapid coordinated response to natural disasters • Need: Strong basis for regional collaboration • Existing bilateral alliances present the starting point • Exercises should reveal weaknesses rather than demonstrate political goodwill Existing military alliances foster uniform standards in military equipment & training

23. Potential Future Arrangements: Failed States & Nontraditional Threats • Japans Case • Expand countries physical capabilities for operations abroad (with a certain ceiling ) • Legal, diplomatic and military checks on new capacities • Transparent about plans & encourage other countries for capacity building • Smaller more mobile military • Humanitarian relief, interventions to stop genocide & civil conflicts, hostage rescue

24. Conclusion • No need for new security organizations • Basic tools already exist • Need for creative new policy ideas for individual problems • More Cooperation • Japans fundamental decision • Historical sensitivity regarding its neighbors • Devote more resources to establishing overseas deployable military personal

25. References • Green, Michael & Gill Bates (2009), “Asia’s New Multilateralism: Defense Issues and Asia’s Future” Columbia University Press: New York • Kim, Duyeon (2013), “Fact Sheet: North Korea’s Nuclear and Ballistic Missile Program” The Center For Arms Control and Non-Proliferation: Washington, D. C. (retrieved:19 Jan. 2014) < http://armscontrolcenter.org/publications/factsheets/fact_sheet_north_korea_nuclear_and_missile_programs/>