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Flash estimates of GDP

Flash estimates of GDP. Roberto Barcellan European Commission - Eurostat. Introduction. GDP is the the “indicator” able to resume the economic performance of a country GDP is the ultimate product of the statistical chain Crisis: need for early estimates of GDP

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Flash estimates of GDP

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  1. Flash estimates of GDP Roberto Barcellan European Commission - Eurostat

  2. Introduction GDP is the the “indicator” able to resume the economic performance of a country GDP is the ultimate product of the statistical chain Crisis: need for early estimates of GDP Methodological and technical debates A standalone rapid estimate of GDP is not sufficient for policy makers Sequence of statistical products Set of indicators

  3. GDP: a sequence of statistical products

  4. Who does what? Planning Bureaus / Research institutes / Statistical authorities Statistical Authorities

  5. The dashboard approach • Set of coherent macroeconomic key indicators • Flexible to adapt to evolving needs • information on • Prices • national accounts • labour market statistics • short-term statistics • external trade • Dynamic evolution

  6. Framework: the pyramid of statistical information Specificpurpose Multi-purpose Composite indicators Indicator (sets) Accounting systems Primary and secondary data

  7. Information and rapid estimates nowcasts Flash estimates Regular estimates Increase availability of basic information Decreasing use of econometric / statistical techniques

  8. How to move towards rapid estimates of a set of indicators? Define the dashboard Define the typology of statistical product glossary International cooperation for guidelines and strategic short, medium and long term objectives handbooks Methodological background Seminars and sharing best practices

  9. Creating a “culture” of rapid estimates Adequate communication Transparency Pre-defined release windows What does estimate what? Promoting the dashboard

  10. Summary ideas Importance of rapid estimates Sequence of statistical products fit for purpose For each product: basic information and methodology Dashboard Outcome of a coordinated statistical production process Communication

  11. Thank you for your attention!

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