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Politische Kommunication in der Globalen Welt

Politische Kommunication in der Globalen Welt Demoskopie als strategisches Walhlkampfinstrument Mainz Oktober 2003. IS THERE ANYTHING NEW IN DEMOSCOPY?. Three perspectives: Methodology New electoral contexts Political use of polls. Methodology:

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Politische Kommunication in der Globalen Welt

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  1. Politische Kommunication in der Globalen Welt Demoskopie als strategisches Walhlkampfinstrument Mainz Oktober 2003

  2. IS THERE ANYTHING NEW IN DEMOSCOPY?

  3. Three perspectives: • Methodology • New electoral contexts • Political use of polls

  4. Methodology: • There are not important news • Probabilistic samples, telephonical polls with CATI system, perception analyzer, tracking, simulated vote • Regresion, factorial, models, multidimensional scaling • LA is very profesionalized

  5. New electoral context: • The electorates are changing • The classic linkage social class / vote is weaker • Short term factors are displacing the long term / structural factors

  6. New electoral context: • Voters have become volatile, unstable • The electorates get involved in the campaing in a later time • So, the research strategy has to be different • The tracking system is more important

  7. New electoral context: • Politicians are afraid of the “shame vote” • Phenomenons as Menem or Alan García • Simulated vote: people vote before answering the interview

  8. New electoral context: • Demoscopy is not only quantitative research • Cualitative research is occupying more place in diagnosis • The percentages are important, but the concepts are equally

  9. New electoral contexts: • We need to identify what makes a difference • When the party system is consolidated, we do not need to inquire about new electoral offers

  10. New electoral contexts: • When the party system is breaking, it is necesary to describe new electoral “markets” every time • When electoral politics personalize, the research rules change

  11. Political use of polls: • Politicians are mainly interested in the “horse race” • There is little planning • Sometimes there is low confidence in the capacity of polls to describe reality

  12. Political use of polls: • The fear to the influence of media over people is the worst one • Many politicians want polls to show them as winners: that is the key

  13. In sum: • There are not important news about methodology • Demoscopy is advanced in LA • It is very important to understand the cultural matrix • We have a problem with politicians and media

  14. Further information or bibliography about this issue, please contact:Carlos Fara & AsociadosLuis Sáenz Peña 20 4to. RBuenos Aires (1110) ArgentinaTel.fax: (54 - 11) 4383-0482E-mail: farasoc@arnet.com.ar

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