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Hourly Load Validation Issues: SPSC Reference Case and High DSM Case

Hourly Load Validation Issues: SPSC Reference Case and High DSM Case. Galen Barbose Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory TEPPC DSM Task Force Conference Call: Nov. 15, 2010 TEPPC Data Work Group Conference Call: Nov. 16, 2010. Topics. Background

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Hourly Load Validation Issues: SPSC Reference Case and High DSM Case

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  1. Hourly Load Validation Issues:SPSC Reference Case and High DSM Case Galen Barbose Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory TEPPC DSM Task Force Conference Call: Nov. 15, 2010 TEPPC Data Work Group Conference Call: Nov. 16, 2010

  2. Topics • Background • Three visible problems with the hourly load forecasts for the SPSC Reference and High DSM Cases: • Severe compression of High DSM hourly load forecast for IPC • Severe compression of High DSM and SPSC Reference Case hourly load forecasts for CFE in February • High DSM hourly forecast for BCTC severely understates peak load reductions relative to the LRS forecast • Action items

  3. Background: Terminology and Scope Terminology: DSM = Demand Response & Energy Efficiency • Demand response (aka “Dispatchable DSM”): Interruptible load, direct load control, etc. • Energy efficiency: continuous load reductions from equipment change-out or operational changes Scope: • The SPSC Reference Case and High DSM Case scenarios include both types of DSM • …but the demand response component is incorporated at a later stage in the modeling • For our purposes, the energy efficiency component of the two cases is the relevant one

  4. Background: Method for Constructing SPSC Reference Case and High DSM Case Forecasts • SPSC DSM Working Group developed monthly GWh and MW forecasts for the two cases • Both sets of load forecasts were constructed by making decrements to the LRS monthly load forecasts • SPSC Reference Case: Decrements reflect impact of current energy efficiency policies and program plans • High DSM Case: Decrements reflect achievement of full cost-effective energy efficiency potential • Adjustments for both cases account for energy efficiency savings already embedded within the LRS load forecasts • Hourly forecasts were created using POWERBASE and the same historical hourly load shapes that were used for the TEPPC base case and LRS forecasts

  5. Issue 1: Severe compression of High DSM hourly load forecast for IPC High DSM Scenario Load Forecasts for the 3 IPC Load Bubbles When POWERBASE applies the hourly load shapes to the monthly High DSM load forecasts for IPC, the resulting hourly load forecasts are highly compressed.

  6. How was the monthly High DSM Forecast for IPC constructed? • Monthly High DSM Load Forecast was calculated by applying monthly “shape factors” to the annual High DSM Incremental Savings (in Step D), and deducting those monthly values from the monthly LRS Load Forecast • Monthly shape factors were derived from data on monthly energy efficiency savings in IPC’s IRP From IPC’s December 2009 IRP (existing/committed programs) Based on NPCC economic potential estimate for the PNW (a “beefed up” version of the target in the 6th Power Plan) 933 Calculated from GWh potential savings using the MW-to-GWh savings ratio from NPCC 6th Plan: 4097 GWh x 0.23 MW/GWh = 933 MW

  7. Adjustments to LRS peak load forecast are greater than adjustments to energy forecast This is causing the High DSM hourly load forecast to become overly compressed

  8. How can we fix this? • The simplest solution is to recalculate the economic potential annual peak demand savings using a lower MW-to-GWh savings ratio • Currently calculated using the MW-to-GWh savings ratio for Idaho from NPCC’s 6th Plan = 0.23 MW/GWh • This MW-to-GWh savings ratio is on the high end of the spectrum, but did not lead to problems when applied to other BAs in the PNW • The problem arises for IPC because the LRS forecast has a relatively high load factor 933

  9. Potential alternate assumptions for the MW-to-GWh savings ratio • Typical values are in the range of 0.16-0.23 • Values tend to be higher in regions with more cooling demand • The Idaho Power IRP savings projections imply a MW-to-GWh savings ratio of 0.13 • This is very low; for comparison, a perfectly flat savings profile (no hourly variation) equates to a MW-to-GWh savings ratio of 0.11 • Avista’s IRP savings projection implies a MW-to-GWh savings ratio of 0.17 Proposal: Recalculate IPC High DSM peak demand savings and peak load forecast assuming MW-to-GWh savings ratio of 0.17

  10. The revised assumption increases monthly peak demand and decreases load factors Monthly Peak Demand Forecasts for IPC (MW) The lower load factors of the revised monthly High DSM forecast will translate into a less compressed (and more realistic) hourly load forecast Is this approach reasonable?

  11. Issue 2: Severe compression of SPSC Ref. Case and High DSM hourly forecasts for CFE in February LRS SPSC Ref. Case High DSM • The SPSC DSM Working Group did not make any adjustments to the CFE forecast for either the SPSC Reference Case or the High DSM Case • The hourly forecasts differ from LRS for Jan, Feb, Mar, and Nov • The hourly load forecasts across all three cases should be identical

  12. Issue 3: High DSM hourly forecast for BCTC severely understates peak load reduction relative to LRS forecast • The monthly High DSM forecast for BCTC specifies peak load reductions of 15%-17% each month • In contrast, the hourly High DSM load forecast shows peak load reductions of 1%-2% each month • This problem manifests in the hourly load forecast in the form of very low load factors and an excessively stretched load shape • The source of this problem can be traced to a data entry error in the monthly High DSM scenario peak demand forecast that SPSC provided to WECC Corrected Monthly High DSM Peak Demand Forecasts for BCTC (MW)

  13. Action Items for Resolution of Issues • Severe compression of High DSM hourly load forecast for IPC WECC will use the revised High DSM Case monthly peak load forecast for IPC (see Slide 10) to develop a revised hourly load forecast • Severe compression of High DSM and SPSC Reference Case hourly load forecasts for CFE in February WECC will use the hourly LRS forecast for CFE for both the SPSC reference case and the High DSM case • High DSM hourly forecast for BCTC severely understates peak load reductions relative to the LRS forecast  WECC will use the revised High DSM Case monthly peak load forecast for BCTC (see Slide 12) to develop a revised hourly load forecast

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