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Historical Perspective

Historical Perspective. First attempt in 1961/62 by then Ministry of Economic Planning Gap of two years Responsibility shifted to CBS Continuation after 1964/65. NA compilation practices. GDP predominantly based on Value added approach

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Historical Perspective

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  1. Historical Perspective • First attempt in 1961/62 by then Ministry of Economic Planning • Gap of two years • Responsibility shifted to CBS • Continuation after 1964/65

  2. NA compilation practices • GDP predominantly based on Value added approach • Separate estimates of expenditure components except change in stocks • Change in stock: residually estimated • No explicit statistical discrepancy • Attempt to produce GDP by income approach

  3. Rebasing and linking practices Analytical and Mechanical re-referencing Base year • 1964/65 – Analytical and First NA series • 1974/75 – Analytical • 1984/85 – Analytical • 1994/95 – Mechanical linking • 2000/01 - Analytical

  4. Demand Components • Final Consumption Expenditure • Government • Households • Nonprofit institution serving households • Capital Formation • Gross fixed capital formation • Change in stocks • Net exports • Exports • Imports

  5. Measuring Household Consumption • HIES Resolution • Households Consumption Expenditure • Value of consumer goods and services acquired, used or paid for by a household through direct monetary purchases, own account production, barter or as income in kind for the satisfaction of the needs and wants of its members • Actual final consumption of Households • Sum of its household consumption expenditure and the value of consumer goods and services acquired or used by the household through transfers from government, non-profit institutions or other households

  6. Household Consumption • Major Data Source • Household Survey • Retail Survey • Balance of payments • Value added tax • Income and consumption link • functional relationship between disposable income and consumption • Commodity flow

  7. Compilation practice in Nepal • Independent estimates for • Households final consumption expenditure • Government final consumption expenditure • NPISH final consumption expenditure • Gross fixed capital formation • Exports • Imports • Residual • Change in stocks • Statistical Discrepancy • No explicit discrepancy • Change in stocks contains discrepancy also

  8. Compilation practice in Nepal • Household consumption largest single component • Accounting for around 80% of GDP • Benchmark data • Nepal Living Standards Survey (NLSS) • Balance of Payment • Extrapolation • Population growth rate • CPI for food, non food and service separately • Price system applied • Acquisition price • Includes non-deductable VAT and other taxes on products • Includes all types of margins • Income Consumption Link • Some exercise had also been carried out.

  9. Coverage and sources

  10. Nepal Living Standards Survey Consumption related questions at a glance

  11. Classification adopted • COIPCOP • Not adopted yet • Disaggregation is based on • CPI components • Correspondence • NLSS consumption headings and CPI components

  12. Major CPI Components

  13. Actual Final Consumption • Sum of household consumption expenditure, individual consumption expenditure of Government and consumption expenditure of NPISH

  14. Consumption in Figure in millions Rs.

  15. Typical Issues • Credit issues • may involve three distinct components • price of the goods itself- It is Consumption • expenses of the financial company making loan: It is Consumption • interest payments: Not consumption • No such distinctions are made • Unincorporated Household Sector • Spending is intermediate consumption • No such analysis has been done

  16. General Issues/Limitations • Systematic Errors • Sampling error of the survey itself • Coverage Errors/Uncertinities • goods and services purchased infrequently • Economy of Scale • Supply and Use tables

  17. What'snewinSupply and Use Table • Independent estimates for change in stocks for 2004/05 • New level for household consumption • Estimates for around 52 different good and services • Commodity flow approach • around 5% higher than published one. • Adjustment for FISIM allocation

  18. Scheduled program • Follow up consumption survey • Exploring the VAT and government account detail • Separate treatment for • Infrequent Goods and services bought for final consumption by households • Payment to government units to obtain various kinds of licenses, permits, certificates, passports • Explicit and imputed service charges on household uses of financial intermediation services provided by banks, insurance companies, pension funds • Change in Stocks

  19. Thanks

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