Growth and Transformation Plan in Ethiopia

1. Growth and Transformation Plan in Ethiopia Adam M. Zerihun Presented on the open seminar on Growth and Transformation Plan in Ethiopia, the Norwegian development fund November 24, 2011, Oslo, Norway

2. IMF and World Bank criticize Ethiopia's economic planNovember 4th 2011 • Overly ambitious and a threat to macroeconomic stability • The GTP is misguided, impossible to finance and severely damaging the economy • Ambitious public investment and growth targets • Insufficient capacity to execute plans and inadequate funding for proposed investments • Government's dependency on the National Bank of Ethiopia - pushed the inflation rate to over 40% • Despite soaring inflation and many people suffering from lower purchasing power (especially the poor), the government has already publicly dismissed the claims

3. The prevailing economic situation • Few, ruling party affiliated (political or family hood and friendship) are multi-millionaires • Millions are starving- although denying reports of the Ethiopian regime – image! • 3 meals a day is becoming a luxury in the country • Basic food items like, bread, cooking oil and sugar are supplied in ration • 40% inflation • Live alone the poor, the middle class can not afford to supply his family with enough food in the current Ethiopia

4. Leasing fertile farmland • Flower and khat cultivation is prioritized • Oxen is still used for ploughing and even owning an oxen is not possible for the majority farmer • Standard of living is deteriorating from time to time

5. Rampant and sophisticated corruption Constraining to GTP • According to the world bank half of the national economy (excluding land telecommunication and much of banking) is accounted for by companies held by TPLF affiliated business group EFFORT *Current head- AzebMesfin, wife of Zenawi • EFFORT is the major partner/ beneficiary of foreign assistance, including from the Norwegian institutions

6. Rampant and sophisticated corruption Constraining to GTP • Guna trading House PLC – become • the sole exporter of coffee • significant exporter of sesame seeds • Other import businesses (including Fertilizers) • TPLF-affiliated construction companies - win easily contracts of the govm’t • Arms procurement- favourite area of Meles and his circle • Al-Amoudi- EPRDF affiliated Ethio-Saudi billionaire • Gold (second biggest export commodity) export and major mining is awarded to Mohammed • 8.4 billion USD vanished into the black hole- offshore banking (partly may be to payments to TPLF informants and Lobbyists in the diaspora) • *John Abbink (2009) The Ethiopian second republic and the fragile social acontract. African spectrm, vol. 44 No. 2

7. GTP constraining political atmosphere One party system • 2010 election- 99.6% in favour of EPRDF • Controlled 545/547 parliamentary seats • Draconian laws safeguard the power monopoly through terrorizing the opposition, journalists and the public • The media law • The NGO law • Anti-terror law

8. GTP constraining political atmosphere • Human rights violations • Arrest and subsequent violations of basic human rights • Brutal murders of political candidates • Open torture and ill-treatment of political prisoners • Intensive human rights violations in the country, particularly in the Ogaden region and Oromia areas

9. GTP constraining political atmosphere • Complete capture of state institutions Military, security, major economic sectors (Banking,….) • Establishment of a fear society • Countless journalists, editors, judges, academicians, human rights activists fled the country or are kept behind bars • Chinese spy technology to bug phone & internet communications and jamming free media • 3.4 million local officers for 80 mill people-1 for 12 families • Scope of peaceful political participation • Opposition parties are systematically persecuted and pressurized to flee • Political assembly and demonstration are banned

10. Transparency and information flow A missing tool for development • State monopoly on telecommunication and media • 2% mobile phone distribution – Africa’s average 30% • Jamming independent media including, VOA, ESAT and various internet websites

11. Is there real economic devm’t in Ethiopia? • Food crises/Famine • Millions are starving, but denying reports from the govm’t • Melesand Ethiopia experiment objects - MDG? • Meleshailed as member of a ’new breed’ of post–cold war African leader and become aid darling • Received more than to 35 billion USD in development aid since 1991 • Donors common Interest--- big push approach • Income for being Anti-terror ally- • Promotion by the west??, Who disregard his own experiment? • ‘Aid dependent regime’s do not listen to their own citizens, but to donors, Aid is destructing African countries’ Moyo • China’s aggressive economic dominance in developing countries, like Ethiopia- contributory to the ‘new thinking’ within donor countries?

12. Conclusion • In a country where • political and economical power is monopolized by few • only ruling party affiliated are actors and believed to be benefficiaries • the majority is excluded and do not participate • Growth and Transformation plans is unrealistic in Ethiopia with the current attitude of the Meles regime

13. *http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Ethiopia ** //www.indexmundi.com/ethiopia/inflation_rate_%28consumer_prices%29.html *** http://www.airninja.com/worldfacts/countries/Ethiopia/population.htm *** https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/et.html

14. Conclusion • Mr Zenawi is a multi-faced Africa’s worst dictator • fooling donors and threatening the west – shift his companionship to China • Donors should stop playing a double standard • Ethiopians will be forced to fight by all means for freedom => regional instability? • Increased fear for Rwanda’s blood shed repeat in Ethiopia- Genocide watch