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Peter G. Black (1), Jeffrey D. Hawkins (2) and Russell L. Elsberry (3)

A Proposed New Strategy for Tropical Cyclone Reconnaissance Based on Western Pacific TCS08 Proof of Concept. Peter G. Black (1), Jeffrey D. Hawkins (2) and Russell L. Elsberry (3) (1) Naval Research Laboratory and SAIC, Inc., Monterey, CA (2) Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA

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Peter G. Black (1), Jeffrey D. Hawkins (2) and Russell L. Elsberry (3)

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  1. A Proposed New Strategy for Tropical Cyclone Reconnaissance Based on Western Pacific TCS08 Proof of Concept Peter G. Black (1), Jeffrey D. Hawkins (2) and Russell L. Elsberry (3) (1) Naval Research Laboratory and SAIC, Inc., Monterey, CA (2) Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA (3) Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference St. Petersburg, Florida 2-6 March, 2009

  2. Tropical Cyclone Structure 2008 WC-130J Aircraft Performance • Research Flights • Missions: 28 • Mission Flight Hours: 263 • High-Level Depression 300mb Missions: 12 • Tropical Cyclones: 4 • TC 700mb Missions: 12 • Buoy Deployment Missions: 2 • GPS Dropsondes Deployed: 750 • AXBTs Deployed: 250 • Drifting Buoys Deployed: 24 • Number Flight Personnel: 75 • WC-130J Aircraft: 2

  3. WC-130J Capabilities • Endurance:12-hour • Ceiling:300 mb, i.e. 9.7 km (31K ft) altitude • (after 2.5-hr transit) • WPAC Range- from Guam, staging to Kadena • Okinawa & Yakota, Japan: 120-160E, 7-42N • Real-time HDOB, 1-sec resolution recorded • SFMR surface winds • GPS sonde deployment • AXBT deployment • Radar Video Recording

  4. New Recco Strategy Needed • Shift focus in developing systems toward defining vertical structure over a domain • Focus on better definition of 3D initial vortex for evolving coupled models • Driven by emerging requirements for improved 5 to 7 day forecasts and related requirement to improve genesis and intensity change forecasting

  5. CONCLUSIONS • The strategy of flying high in weak systems, in concert with remote sensing guidance, rather than flying low looking for weak circulations, is an idea whose time has come. • This requires additional expenditures for expendables: an average of 26 GPS dropsondes and 13 AXBTs per flight at one deg resolution for sondes, two deg resolution for AXBTs. Added expenses of approximately 50% relative to flight hour and personell costs would be required. • With Use of recorded radar video in concert with near-real time satellite microwave products, sonde profiles can be co-located relative to clusters of active convection and observations. This will allow forecasters to determine the altitude and strength of developing meso-synoptic vortices and greatly enhance situational awareness during the tropical cyclone forecast and warning process. • We are at an historic turning point in history for improving hurricane intensity observation and forecasting where the capability to observe the TC surface and mid-level wind domain concurrent with subsurface ocean thermal structure matches the improved coupled model capabilities to assimilate and model the total TC environment. This alignment should provide the next best opportunity for improving hurricane intensity and structure forecasting.

  6. Unprecidented Real-Time Satellite Capabilities: Data Fusion

  7. Google-Earth WC-130J:blue P3: yellow DATA FUSION TCS08 Aug 27-28 Developers: Joe Turk, NRL Bob Creasey, NPS

  8. Zig-Zag Square Spiral Racetrack Bow-Tie TCS08 Flight Patterns-1 Base of Operations

  9. Rotated Fig 4 Butterfly Bow-Tie Figure 4 TCS08 Flight Patterns-2 Base of Operations

  10. Upper Ocean Heat Content TCS25 28 Aug, 2008 0000GMT Developer: Dong-Shan Ko, NRL-Stennis

  11. SSMIS- F16 27 Sept, 2213 GMT WC-130J sondes- SFC 27 Aug, 21 UTC - 28 Aug, 03 UTC

  12. SSMIS- F16 27 Sept, 2213 GMT WC-130J sondes- 700 MB 27 Aug, 21 UTC - 28 Aug, 03 UTC

  13. SSMIS- F16 27 Sept, 2213 GMT WC-130J sondes- 700 MB 27 Aug, 21 UTC - 28 Aug, 03 UTC

  14. Data Fusion:Google-Earth Enhanced IR + WC-130J flight track, Dropsonde locations 0330 UTC 7 Sept, 2008 0030 UTC 7 Sept, 2008

  15. Surface

  16. 850 MB

  17. 700 MB

  18. 400 MB

  19. Surface

  20. 400 MB

  21. TCS08 Ocean Heat • Content Obs: • Concurrent with GPS dropsondes • Preview of ITOP2010 AXBT vs NRL Ocean Model Initial Conditions TCS08 AXBT Locations Ko, NRL Stennis

  22. Ko, NRL Stennis

  23. Operations: Aircraft – buoy deployment First occurrence of the deployment of drifting buoys ahead of a category 5 tropical cyclone (Jangmi). Chart at left and imagery below are from a few hours after the deployment of the buoys along the diagonal to the northwest of the TC 2313 UTC 26 September First buoy deployment In TY Hagupit several days earlier P-3 flight track Second deployment in STY Jangmi Buoy, aircraft, and satellite data in Google Earth

  24. Niiler, Scripps Morzel, NWRA/CoRA

  25. TCS08- Jangmi 27 Sept, 2132 27 Sept, 1134 28 Sept, 0006 27 Sept, 0445

  26. JMA TCS08 Jangmi Sept, 2008 Track/Intensity SATCON Intensity: Velden, CIMSS Hawkins, NRL

  27. H*WIND STY Jangmi 27 Sept, 2008 QSCAT: Magenta Drift Buoys: Blue SFMR: Black

  28. H*WIND Analysis STY Jangmi 27 Sept, 2008 With QSCAT & ASCAT only With SFMR Data

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