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CEnREP – Camp Resources 2011

Environmental Law in the Amazon: Testing Impacts on Land-Use Dynamics using Spatial Panel Models. CEnREP – Camp Resources 2011. Wrightsville Beach NC, August 7-9. Pedro Pires de Matos* Erin O. Sills NC State University. * Corresponding author: pedro_matos@ncsu.edu. Outline.

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CEnREP – Camp Resources 2011

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  1. Environmental Law in the Amazon: Testing Impacts on Land-Use Dynamics using Spatial Panel Models CEnREP – Camp Resources 2011 Wrightsville Beach NC, August 7-9 Pedro Pires de Matos* Erin O. Sills NC State University * Corresponding author: pedro_matos@ncsu.edu

  2. Outline Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon Environmental Law Data Econometric Models for Spatial Panels Results

  3. Deforestation in the Amazon 12% - 30% (van der Werf, 2009 – FAO, 2006)

  4. Deforestation in the Amazon The “Arc of Deforestation”

  5. Deforestation in the Amazon Annual loss of forest cover in the Brazilian Legal Amazon Km2 Causes of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon, 2000-2005 Logging (2-3%) Other 1-2%) Large-Scale agriculture (5-10%) Small-scale agriculture (20-25%) Source: INPE 2011 Cattle ranching (65-70%) Source: Mongabay.com, 2011

  6. Environmental Law in Brazil • The first Forestry Code was created with Federal Decree N. 23.793, from 1934. • TheconceptofLegal Amazonwascreatedin1953 (Federal Law 1.806). • The Forestry Code was substantially revised by Federal Law n. 4.771, from 1965. • Defines small properties: • Small property in Legal Amazon <150 ha. • Minimum of 80% of household income from agro-forestry or extraction. • Defines Permanent Protection Areas (Área de Preservação permanente – APP): • Protect water resources, soil, landscape, biodiversity and population’s wellbeing. • Defines Legal Reserve (Reserva Legal – RL): • Preserve ecosystems and biodiversity.

  7. Environmental Law in Brazil • APP – Protect resources and provide ecosystem services • River margins (riparian corridors) • Lakes and other bodies of water • Water springs • Top of hills and mountains • Steep hillsides (> 45 degrees) • High erosion areas • High altitude areas (> 1800m) • Urban green areas (e.g. protection of highway corridors) • RL – Preserve ecosystems and biodiversity • 80% of rural properties’ area in the Legal Amazon • Lowered to 50% for deforestedproperties • RL can be shared by several lots and be located in a different place within the same hydrographical basin

  8. Environmental Law in Brazil • APP – Protect resources and provide ecosystem services • River margins (riparian corridors) • Lakes and other bodies of water • Water springs • Top of hills and mountains • Steep hillsides (> 45 degrees) • High erosion areas • High altitude areas (> 1800m) • Urban green areas (e.g. protection of highway corridors) • RL – Preserve ecosystems and biodiversity • 80% of rural properties’ area in the Legal Amazon • Lowered to 50% for deforestedproperties • RL can be shared by several lots and be located in a different place within the same hydrographical basin

  9. The research question The question: Are these legal instruments effective? The answer: X Yes No It depends An economist’s default answer

  10. Study Area 9392 Lots 0 20 Km

  11. Data Total area per land use/land cover

  12. Data Forest cover as percentage of lot area 1984 2009 2000 2005 1996

  13. The research question The question: Are these legal instruments effective? The answer: X Yes No It depends An economist’s default answer The “actual” research question: Are these legal instruments affecting land use/land cover change dynamics? (i.e. do farmers alter their behavior around legally defined minimum forest cover levels?)

  14. Data

  15. Age of Lot Official Date (INCRA) First occupation Spatially weighted Lot settlement year 2/3 consecutive years: Visible pasture > 0.5 ha Decrease in forest > 0.5 ha Visible urban class Spatial weighting Locate 10 nearest neighbours (NN) If age gap between lot and youngest of 8 NN > 10 y Assign that age to lot

  16. Market access Distance to main city Distance to nearest market

  17. Key variables Forest Cover 2000 Rivers

  18. Spatial panel models t

  19. Spatial panel models Pooled cross sections Fixed effects Random effects

  20. Spatial panel models Spatial Lag Model (SLM) Spatial Error Model (SEM)

  21. Spatial panel models Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) Generalized Spatial Model (GSM)

  22. The Model

  23. Results

  24. Results

  25. Results

  26. Conclusions and ongoing work • Environmental legislation is not effective... • ... but farmers appear to “acknowledge” its presence. • Policy implications: • Improved enforcement decelerates deforestation (obvious). • Enforcement above incentives/subsidies (e.g. REDD+)? • Working with sub-samples and additional covariates. • Incorporating HH survey data.

  27. Environmental Law in the Amazon: Testing Impacts on Land-Use Dynamics using Spatial Panel Models Thank you for your time. Questions? CEnREP – Camp Resources 2011 Wrightsville Beach NC, August 7-9 Erin O. Sills Pedro Pires de Matos* NC State University * Corresponding author: pedro_matos@ncsu.edu

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