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Model Uncertainties and SCA Maps Owens Lake Dust Mitigation Project

Model Uncertainties and SCA Maps Owens Lake Dust Mitigation Project. Bishop, September 28-29 2005. Los Angeles Department of Water & Power CH2M HILL and Air Sciences. Sensit grid resolution K-factor screens Adequate source representation Use of “forced” data filling

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Model Uncertainties and SCA Maps Owens Lake Dust Mitigation Project

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  1. Model Uncertainties and SCA Maps Owens Lake Dust Mitigation Project Bishop, September 28-29 2005 Los Angeles Department of Water & Power CH2M HILL and Air Sciences

  2. Sensit grid resolution K-factor screens Adequate source representation Use of “forced” data filling Use of Gillette method Not verified, site specific Interchangeable pack violators Single day violators Dust ID Protocol: Concerns

  3. Many meetings discussing K-factors Some screens do not work well Example: 30-degree cone Questionable K-factors left in Example: Transitional winds K-factors highly variable (0.1 to 350) K-factor Screens

  4. Identification of pack violators dependent on selection approach Example: 2003-2004 modeling Pack Violators

  5. District 03-04 modeling flagged 7498 as pack. We flagged 7408. However, we found cells 7408 and 7498 were interchangeable Uncontrolled concentrations < 60 mg/m3 Flagged during high K-factor period K-factors based on other sensits. Both are single day pack violators If rest of area controlled, will these areas really be a problem? Pack Violators: Example

  6. A number of single day cells. Often driven by high K-factor events derived from other sensits. Often “turn off” under different scenarios Example: Site 7360 – single day, it be surrounded by brine pool and control areas Are single day violators due to cell or due to spillover from adjacent active cell? Single Day Violators

  7. District Map: SCA ~10 sq. miles Modeling Uncertainty Map Local Disturbance Map Construction Impact Map 2002-2004 SCA Map

  8. Modeling Uncertainty: Identify pack cells (P) Identify cells with one exceedance/year (S) Identify cells that were flagged only by filled data/Gillette method (F) Identify cells that are not flagged when default or 25th percentile K-factors used (V) 2002-2004 SCA Map

  9. Combinations (7): Filled, Variable (F,V) – dark brown Single day (S) - yellow Single day, Filled, Variable (SFV) – gray Single day, Pack, Variable (SPV) – tan Single day, Variable (SV) – light gray Variable (V) – light brown No qualifier () – Red Modeling Uncertainty Map

  10. Soil Survey Disturbance Map • Local Disturbance Map • Based on CH2M Surface Conditions Survey • Only on areas outside current DCAs • Only flagged cells considered • Categories of disturbance within 30’ of sensit No Disturbance (OK) - gray Low - brown Moderate - yellow Severe - red Not evaluated - tan

  11. Construction Impact Map Identified sensit cells that are within 500’ of construction area • Based on CH2M Surface Conditions Survey • Only on areas outside current DCAs evaluated • Only flagged cells considered here • Categories: Construction within 500’ - brown Construction beyond 500’ - yellow Not evaluated - tan

  12. END

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