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Who Knows? Who Cares? Lessons From Transparency Projects. David Wheeler. Case 1: Pollution Disclosure In Developing Countries. State. Markets. Community. New Regulatory Model. World Bank: Pollution Disclosure Programs. Mexico. China. India. Colombia. Philippines. Vietnam.
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Who Knows? Who Cares? Lessons From Transparency Projects David Wheeler
Case 1: Pollution Disclosure In Developing Countries State Markets Community New Regulatory Model
World Bank: Pollution Disclosure Programs Mexico China India Colombia Philippines Vietnam Indonesia
Grading Polluters: Indonesia’s PROPER A+ Five-Color System A B D F
80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100 PROPER Ratings: % CHANGE AFTER 18 MONTHS
Philippines EcoWatch Results ECOWATCH Ratings April 1997 Excellent Very Good Compliant Non-Compliant Very Poor
Philippines EcoWatch Results ECOWATCH Ratings April 1997 November 1998 Excellent Very Good Compliant Non-Compliant Very Poor
Ratings Excellent Very Good Compliant Non-Compliant Very Poor China GreenWatch Results 1999
Ratings Excellent Very Good Compliant Non-Compliant Very Poor China GreenWatch Results 1999 2000
Vietnam Results February, 2002 Ratings Excellent Very Good Compliant Non-Compliant Very Poor
Vietnam Results February, 2002 June, 2002 Ratings Excellent Very Good Compliant Non-Compliant Very Poor
Lessons • Disclosure is Strategic • Symbols Are Powerful • Credibility Requires Good Metrics • Effective Disclosure Requires Leverage • Leverage Points Differ • Disclosure Response is Competitive • Don’t Expect Miracles (Costs Matter)
CGD: FORMA Forest Monitoring For Action
FORMA/Indonesia Sumatra
FORMA/Indonesia Riau Province Sumatra
Forest cover in 2000 300km Forest in 2000
Deforestation by late 2005 300km Forest in 2000 Cleared 2000 - 2005
Cleared by 2006-1 Probability 50 – 60% 60 – 70% 70 – 80% 80 – 90% > 90% Forest in 2000 Cleared 2000 - 2005
Cleared by 2006-2 Probability 50 – 60% 60 – 70% 70 – 80% 80 – 90% > 90% Forest in 2000 Cleared 2000 - 2005
Cleared by 2006-3 Probability 50 – 60% 60 – 70% 70 – 80% 80 – 90% > 90% Forest in 2000 Cleared 2000 - 2005
Cleared by 2006-4 Probability 50 – 60% 60 – 70% 70 – 80% 80 – 90% > 90% Forest in 2000 Cleared 2000 - 2005
Cleared by 2006-5 Probability 50 – 60% 60 – 70% 70 – 80% 80 – 90% > 90% Forest in 2000 Cleared 2000 - 2005
Cleared by 2006-6 Probability 50 – 60% 60 – 70% 70 – 80% 80 – 90% > 90% Forest in 2000 Cleared 2000 - 2005
Cleared by 2006-7 Probability 50 – 60% 60 – 70% 70 – 80% 80 – 90% > 90% Forest in 2000 Cleared 2000 - 2005
Cleared by 2006-8 Probability 50 – 60% 60 – 70% 70 – 80% 80 – 90% > 90% Forest in 2000 Cleared 2000 - 2005
Cleared by 2006-9 Probability 50 – 60% 60 – 70% 70 – 80% 80 – 90% > 90% Forest in 2000 Cleared 2000 - 2005
Cleared by 2006-10 Probability 50 – 60% 60 – 70% 70 – 80% 80 – 90% > 90% Forest in 2000 Cleared 2000 - 2005
Cleared by 2006-11 Probability 50 – 60% 60 – 70% 70 – 80% 80 – 90% > 90% Forest in 2000 Cleared 2000 - 2005
Cleared by 2006-12 Probability 50 – 60% 60 – 70% 70 – 80% 80 – 90% > 90% Forest in 2000 Cleared 2000 - 2005
Cleared by 2007-1 Probability 50 – 60% 60 – 70% 70 – 80% 80 – 90% > 90% Forest in 2000 Cleared 2000 - 2005
Cleared by 2007-2 Probability 50 – 60% 60 – 70% 70 – 80% 80 – 90% > 90% Forest in 2000 Cleared 2000 - 2005
Cleared by 2007-3 Probability 50 – 60% 60 – 70% 70 – 80% 80 – 90% > 90% Forest in 2000 Cleared 2000 - 2005
Cleared by 2007-4 Probability 50 – 60% 60 – 70% 70 – 80% 80 – 90% > 90% Forest in 2000 Cleared 2000 - 2005
Cleared by 2007-5 Probability 50 – 60% 60 – 70% 70 – 80% 80 – 90% > 90% Forest in 2000 Cleared 2000 - 2005
Cleared by 2007-6 Probability 50 – 60% 60 – 70% 70 – 80% 80 – 90% > 90% Forest in 2000 Cleared 2000 - 2005
Cleared by 2007-7 Probability 50 – 60% 60 – 70% 70 – 80% 80 – 90% > 90% Forest in 2000 Cleared 2000 - 2005
Cleared by 2007-8 Probability 50 – 60% 60 – 70% 70 – 80% 80 – 90% > 90% Forest in 2000 Cleared 2000 - 2005
Cleared by 2007-9 Probability 50 – 60% 60 – 70% 70 – 80% 80 – 90% > 90% Forest in 2000 Cleared 2000 - 2005
Cleared by 2007-10 Probability 50 – 60% 60 – 70% 70 – 80% 80 – 90% > 90% Forest in 2000 Cleared 2000 - 2005
Cleared by 2007-11 Probability 50 – 60% 60 – 70% 70 – 80% 80 – 90% > 90% Forest in 2000 Cleared 2000 - 2005
Cleared by 2007-12 Probability 50 – 60% 60 – 70% 70 – 80% 80 – 90% > 90% Forest in 2000 Cleared 2000 - 2005
Cleared by 2008-1 Probability 50 – 60% 60 – 70% 70 – 80% 80 – 90% > 90% Forest in 2000 Cleared 2000 - 2005
Cleared by 2008-2 Probability 50 – 60% 60 – 70% 70 – 80% 80 – 90% > 90% Forest in 2000 Cleared 2000 - 2005
Cleared by 2008-3 Probability 50 – 60% 60 – 70% 70 – 80% 80 – 90% > 90% Forest in 2000 Cleared 2000 - 2005
Cleared by 2008-4 Probability 50 – 60% 60 – 70% 70 – 80% 80 – 90% > 90% Forest in 2000 Cleared 2000 - 2005
Cleared by 2008-5 Probability 50 – 60% 60 – 70% 70 – 80% 80 – 90% > 90% Forest in 2000 Cleared 2000 - 2005
Cleared by 2008-6 Probability 50 – 60% 60 – 70% 70 – 80% 80 – 90% > 90% Forest in 2000 Cleared 2000 - 2005
Cleared by 2008-7 Probability 50 – 60% 60 – 70% 70 – 80% 80 – 90% > 90% Forest in 2000 Cleared 2000 - 2005