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Direct Property – to have and to hold. Disclaimer.
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Disclaimer This presentation is provided by Becton Investment Management Limited and is for general information only.Opinions expressed are our present opinions only and are subject to change. In preparing this presentation, we have obtained information from sources we believe to be reliable, but do not offer any guarantees as to its accuracy or completeness.The information contained in the presentation is general in nature and in preparing this presentation Becton Investment Management Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision, a prospective investor should consider, with the assistance of a financial and tax adviser, whether an investment is appropriate in light of their particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. It does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any securities advice or securities recommendation. Furthermore, it is not intended that it be relied on by recipients for the purpose of making investment decisions. Subject to law, none of the companies of Becton Investment Management Limited or its respective directors or employees, accepts any responsibility or owes any duty of care to any person acting, or refraining from acting, as a result of material in this presentation.
The View • Economic – Interest rates slashed - Markets bottoming, recession to come?? • Banking environment – restrictive lending, govt. guarantees having impact on funds management industry, decreasing risk tolerance • Property fundamentals – still strong (supply/demand), but pressure on values as valuers take account of the points above
Role of direct property Correlations of direct property with other assets (period ending December 2007)
Role of direct property Correlation Matrix: December 1984-December 2007 Sources: IPD Property Investors Digest March 2008
Role of direct property Major Asset Classes - Rolling annual returns to March 2008 Source: IPD, Australia Digest March 2008
Role of direct property Annual Income Returns and Volatility of Returns (nil Tax) Source: ADPIA
Role of direct property 16.00% 14.00% Australian Shares PCA Industrial PCA Retail AREIT 12.00% PCA Composite PCA Office 10.00% Total Return (p.a.) 8.00% 6.00% Cash Fixed Interest 4.00% Overseas Shares 2.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% Volatility (p.a.) Total return and volatility (risk) of returns for major asset classes Source: Atchison Consultants/IPD
Property Market Outlook 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 Vacancy Rate Historical Average National Office Vacancy Rate, 1970 to March 2008 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research & Consulting
Property Market Outlook 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 CBD Regional Sub-Regional Neighbourhood National Retail Vacancy, 1998 to 2007 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research & Consulting
Property Market Outlook 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 sqm 1,000,000 500,000 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Eastern Seaboard Industrial Supply (Projects > 5,000 sqm), 1998 to 2007 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research & Consulting
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