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Bill Dupree

FAA Tactical Weather Forecasting In The United States National Airspace. Bill Dupree. Marilyn Wolfson Rick Johnson, Jr. Bob Boldi Evelyn Mann Kim Theriault Calden Carol Wilson Paul Bieringer Brian Martin Haig Iskenderian. Aviation Delay Problem. Aviation Weather Delays.

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Bill Dupree

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  1. FAA Tactical Weather Forecasting In The United States National Airspace Bill Dupree Marilyn Wolfson Rick Johnson, Jr. Bob Boldi Evelyn Mann Kim Theriault Calden Carol Wilson Paul Bieringer Brian Martin Haig Iskenderian

  2. Aviation Delay Problem Aviation Weather Delays US Air Traffic Density Forecast Requirements • Accurate Wx and Forecasts • Current • Rapid Update (2-5min) • High-resolution (1km) • Reliable

  3. Motivation for Precip Forecast(Terminal Delays) 04:00 Z 03:30- 5:10 Z 10:30-12:10am Local Time Memphis, TN 15 July 1997 Vertical Integrated Liquid Water (VIL)

  4. Motivation for Echo Tops Forecast(En Route Delays) VIL (levels) Echo Tops (kft) Flights Shown: All flights at or above 4.9 km (16,000 ft)

  5. Overview • Problem • 0-2 Hour Weather Forecast System • Evolution of Forecast System • Forecast Components • Forecast Products • Performance • Research Efforts

  6. Evolution of the Forecast System NEXRAD Canadian Radars ASR-9 Radars 2003: Growth/Decay Trending 2002: 2-hr Forecast (Multi-scale Tracking & Weather Classification) 2003: Winter Forecast 2005: Echo Tops Forecast 2005: Satellite/Precip Loop 1998: 1-hr Forecast in ITWS 1999: Growth/Decay Tracker Patent 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) New York Orlando Memphis Dallas

  7. Weather Classification Multi-scale Tracking Forecast Engine Weather Classification NEXRAD Precipitation (VIL) 9 July 2003 17:17 Z Line Storms Small Cells Large Cells Stratiform Rain

  8. Multi-scale Tracking Technology Envelope Envelope Vectors VIL 9 July 2003 Weather Classification Image 13 x 69 km Multi-scale Tracking Vectors Cell Cell Vectors 13 km

  9. Growth and Decay Trends Trend Images Difference Images (Each Advected to Analysis Time) VIL & Echo Top Images Prior Image Current Image Boundary Growth Growth/Decay Apply match template kernels to each pixel VIL

  10. Generation of 2-hr Forecast Weather Classification Multi-scale Tracking Growth & Decay Trends Boundary Growth Echo Top Cap VIL Forecasts Thunderstorm Evolution Models Echo Top Forecasts

  11. VIL Forecast Verification 60min(25 June – 1 July 2005) Hit Miss False Alarm

  12. Overview • Problem • 0-2 Hour Weather Forecast System • Research Efforts

  13. Convective Initiation Forecasting(Front and Wind Boundary Locations) DATA SOURCES Doppler Radar Surface Sensors Model Winds Surface Wind Analysis System Temporal Integration Filters Automated Front/Boundary Detections

  14. Automated Front Detection 20 April 2005 (10-5 sec-1) Data from NOAA FSL: Space Time Mesoscale Analysis System (STMAS)

  15. Summary • Demonstrating 0-2 hr forecasts of VIL and Echo Tops • Covers busiest air traffic sectors of US • Performance is consistently excellent • User feedback has been crucial in system development • High benefits now being realized • Convective initiation forecasts still needed • Promising new techniques for automated boundary detection

  16. End of presentation

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