COMMUNICATING HURRICANES

1. COMMUNICATING HURRICANES How People Get and Use Storm Risk and Emergency Information Now Catherine F. Smith, Ken Wilson, Donna Kain

2. Communication Makes Information Meaningful For Action Meaningful = • accessible • understandable • relevant/applicable • usable Action = • any activity or process Decision

3. Practical Question for EM Is severe weather risk and emergency information delivered, received, understood?

4. Assumptions • EMs and PIOs need to know how communications are delivered, received, and understood. • You are partners in this research. Let’s discuss the takeaways.

5. Problem: People • Limit of communication effectiveness is people. "The greatest limitation to flood warnings is human behavior.” Steven Molino, floodplain manager • Limiting factors: • Risk awareness, risk perception, location, situation, social networks, communication technology and media, message characteristics.

6. Mitigation: People Communication works best when communicators account for people’s ways of making sense of information.

7. Research • Case study of hurricane risk and emergency communication in eastern NC 2008-2010 • We surveyed 20 counties and interviewed 6 counties in-depth.

8. Presentation Agenda • Findings from phone surveys in 20 counties • Insights from interviews/focus groups in 6 counties • Discussion throughout

9. Acknowledgements • “Hurricane Risk Perception and Emergency Communication Effectiveness in Coastal Zones” • Catherine F. Smith, Donna J. Kain, Kenneth Wilson Research Assistants Michelle Covi, Douglas Solomon, and others • Supported by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Sea Grant North Carolina and East Carolina University

10. When Severe Weather Threatens…

11. Information Sources • Most people consult a mix of sources • We asked about nine sources • TV • Social Networks and Information Networks • Commercial Radio • Internet • Newspapers • NOAA Weather radio • Alert services • Local Officials • State/National Officials

12. Use of Information Sources Commercial TV is used by largest percentage of residents and businesses/ organizations

13. Use of Information Sources

14. Use of Information Sources Other sources are used by smaller percentages.

15. Use of Information Sources Some sources are never used

16. Use of Information Sources

17. Contrasting Use of 4 Sources by Residents and Businesses or Organizations

18. Influences on Access • Housing Type • Television Service • Cable • Satellite (no local alert capability) • Broadcast • Phone Service • Landline • Cell phone (possible alert capability)

19. Quality of Information from Different Sources *Rating based on scale 1 to 5, where 5 is best and 1 is worst

20. Takeaways for Discussion • The internet lags behind older media. • Alert services are in the mix. • Businesses/organizations “get” EM. • Residents “get” severe weather but they do not rely on EM information or use public sources. • Peoplenetwork toprocess information.

21. Business Takes Severe Weather Seriously • Most businesses (72%) reported they had a plan for dealing with severe weather emergencies. • Over half (55%) of the businesses that have plans have had their plan for 10 years • Over half (54%) have had their emergency plans tested by a severe weather event. • Businesses expect a hurricane to seriously impact the area in the next 10 years.

22. Business Takes Severe Weather Seriously • Businesses tend to adopt their severe weather plans as a response • to a severe weather event (48%) • to another type of emergency (8%) • Fewer responded to external requirements • 16% due to a law or regulation • 9% insurance requirements • 7% required by the home office

23. Business Plans Include: • Preparation for severe weather events (95%) • Closing during an emergency (82%) • Re-entry and re-opening (80%) • Internal communications (76%) • Assisting employees to evacuate (67%) • Business continuity (64%) • Remaining open during an emergency (63%) • Back-up power (62%) • Dealing with the public (62%) • External communications (55%) • Long term recovery (53%) • Assisting employees to return to the area (52%) • Informing the public (51%)

24. Business Takes Severe Weather Seriously • Only one-third (33%) shared their plan with the local emergency managers. • During emergencies, businesses communicate with: • County emergency management group (48%) • City or county government (44%)

25. Who Does Not Have a Plan? • Being in an ocean-front county does not increase the likelihood that a business will have a plan. • Being established longer does not increase the likelihood that a business will have a plan. • Being locally owned and having one location decreases the likelihood that a business will have a plan (65% vs 87%). • More employees increases the likelihood of having a plan • Over 100, 92% have a plan • 11 to 100, 77% have a plan • 1 to 10, 59% have a plan

26. Households Respond to Severe Weather • Many households take the threat seriously • 68% reported that they had a disaster preparedness plan • 76% know the location of an emergency shelter • 91% know the evacuation route from their home • 82% know if an evacuation order covers their home

27. Households Respond to Severe Weather • However: • 39% report that an evacuation order makes them “much more likely to evacuate • 26% report that an evacuation order has “no effect on my decision” • 18% are not sure if an evacuation order covers their home

28. Households Respond to Severe Weather • 14% reported at least one time they did not evacuate when they should have • Why: • did not feel threatened (28%) • did not realize how bad the storm would be (22%) • thought the storm was not severe or close enough (15%). • While people are confident that they will make the right decision, people make mistakes.

29. Considerations • “Once you think your safety may be at risk, what are the most important considerations when deciding whether or not to evacuate?” • Strength of the hurricane (93%) • Direction of the hurricane (78%) • A mandatory evacuation order (67%) • People want to make their own decision but your evacuation orders are part of their decision-making process

30. Households Respond to Severe Weather • Things are getting better and families are more willing to plan for an emergency today • In our survey, 68% of respondents had a plan • After Hurricane Floyd, only 56% had a plan • After Hurricane Bonnie, only 49% had a plan A Socioeconomic Impact Analysis for Hurricanes Bonnie, Dennis and Floyd by John C. Whitehead, Marieke Van Willigen, Bob Edwards, Kenneth Wilson and John Maiolo, the Final Report to North Carolina Division of Emergency Management (HMGP 1240-0012) and North Carolina Sea Grant (NCSU 1998-0617-08), June 2001.

31. Takeaways for Discussion • Most businesses and organizations take severe weather emergencies seriously. • They have plans they adopted because they thought they needed them • Their plans have been tested in real emergencies • Problems are concentrated in smaller, single location businesses

32. Takeaways for Discussion • Many households take severe weather events seriously but a significant minority does not. • Almost one person in 10 does not know the evacuation route from their home. • People seem to consider your evacuation orders as “an important piece of information” in making their evacuation decision. • People are confident in their decisions but they do make serious mistakes. • Things are getting better.

33. For this report in full http://www.ecu.edu/riskcomm