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Metabolic Transitions in Portugal

FLAD, Innovation and Productivity for Portugal 2002, June, 26 th. Metabolic Transitions in Portugal. Paulo Ferrão IN+ - Center for Innovation, Technology and Policy Research IST - Instituto Superior Técnico http://in3.dem.ist.utl.pt. Motivation.

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Metabolic Transitions in Portugal

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  1. FLAD, Innovation and Productivity for Portugal 2002, June, 26th Metabolic Transitions in Portugal Paulo Ferrão IN+ - Center for Innovation, Technology and Policy Research IST - Instituto Superior Técnico http://in3.dem.ist.utl.pt

  2. Motivation • Understanding the Economy metabolism, through Materials Flows Analysis, may contribute to formulate sustainable policies at a national, regional and sectoral level. • Is the Portuguese economy a transitional economy, in transition ?

  3. Portuguese Data • Spatial boundary: Continental Portugal and Azores and Madeira Archipelagos • Years: 1960 to 1998 • Sources: DMI:National Statistic Institute (INE) Geological and Mining Institute (IGM) Forestery Agency (DGF) Population, GDP: OECD’s National Accounts publications

  4. Portuguese DMI: Data • DMI categories: Imported Metals and its products Wood, cork and its products Products from chemical industry and other industries Food, beverage products Vegetable products Live animals and animal products Other

  5. Portuguese DMI: Data • DMI categories: Domestic Non-renewable: Fuel ores Metallic ores Stone, clay, sand Non-metallic ores Marine salt Renewable: Agricultural crops Grazing Forest (wood, cork) Fishing, Hunting Honey, Beeswax

  6. Portuguese Economy: IMPORTS

  7. Portuguese Economy: Exports

  8. Portuguese Economy: Imports and Exports Source : Portuguese Environmental Report, 1999

  9. Scope Is Portugal in transition, Why ?

  10. Adapted from Bringezu and Schütz, 2000, Total Material Requirement of the European Union, European Environment Agency, Technical report No 55. The Portuguese case study (1988-1997) We are in transition!What type?

  11. “We need revolution, not evolution”, ...may be. Portuguese DMI: Evolution • 1998 DMI: 174 million ton, 18 ton per capita • Significative growth 1960-1998: 483% per capita

  12. Portuguese DMI: Domestic/Imported • Almost all non-renewable domestic extraction is due to Rock, Clay and Clay extraction for construction • Imports: mainly fossil fuels

  13. Portuguese DMI: Domestic contr. • Domestic materials: Stone, clay, sand Biomass

  14. Portuguese Transition, based on rock, clay and sand Here is the impact of revolutions, and why there is transition BAU

  15. Sustainability and Production Identity Sustainability and Employment Identity * Moll, 1999, Reducing Societal Metabolism. A Sustainable Development Analysis Material Flows Interactions • Decomposition analysis: Malaska (1998)* Sustainable development associated to MF < 0

  16. * A Residual-free Decomposition of the Sources of Carbon Dioxide Emissions Residual-free DMI decomposition • Contributions calculated by Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index Method (Chung and Rhee, 2000)*:

  17. Main effect:GDP/POP increases DMI/GDPdecreases in 1960 and 1980 decades Production equation: Employment equation: Main effect:DMI/EMP increases DMI Decomposition • DMIincreasesin each period

  18. International disaggregation Employment in construction

  19. Is Portugal transitional ?

  20. International Comparisons Imports and Exports vs. DMI No ? Source: Fischer-Kowalski, M. & Amann, C. (2001) in Population and Environment, Vol. 23, n.1

  21. DMIvs. GDP Well, coherently growing... Source: Fischer-Kowalski, M. & Amann, C. (2001) in Population and Environment, Vol. 23, n.1

  22. A transitional economy: Material Intensity Yes ? Source: Fischer-Kowalski, M. & Amann, C. (2001) in Population and Environment, Vol. 23, n.1

  23. Sectoral transition in environment, GWP ?

  24. CO2 origin • The fuel consumption in Portugal is especially made by petroleum derivates • In 1997, natural gas was introduced

  25. Input-Output AnalysisDirect and indirect costs of the most important sectors to fulfil the total demand in 1993 and 1995 1. Textile & clothing industry 2. Construction 3. Transport vehicles and equipment 4. Agriculture & hunting 5. Chemical products 6. Non-commercial services of Public Administration 7. Financial services 8. Services rendered for companies 9. Petroleum 10.Restaurants & Hotels 8 6 24 19 22 21 23 30 20 30

  26. GNP and GWP per economic sector for the years of 1993 and 1995 1. Textile & clothing industry 2. Construction 3. Transport vehicles and equipment 4. Agriculture & hunting 5. Chemical products 6. Non-commercial services of Public Administration 7. Financial services 8. Services rendered for companies 9. Petroleum 10.Restaurants & Hotels

  27. Environmental sustainability of the sectors (increase of GNP versus increase of GWP) • 1. Textile & clothing industry • 2. Construction • 3. Transport vehicles and equipment • 4. Agriculture & hunting • 5. Chemical products • 6. Financial services • 7. Services rendered for companies • Petroleum • 9. Restaurants & Hotels

  28. Scales and tools to measure transition ?

  29. FLAME MORPHOLOGY GAMC – 5th Course: Global Automotive Technology

  30. From Turbulence to MFA • The large scales transport energy. • Stretching promotes faster, smaller and dissipative eddies. • Stretching occurs in shear layers, detemined by velocity gradients. • The large scales transport materials, promote stocks(). • Market promotes local, faster flows where materials dispersion occurs. • Dissipation and recyclability is determined by price, regulatory and cultural gradients. more complex!

  31. 4D 3D Uconv=36.5m/s 2D -3 0 3 r/d Identification of large-scale motionsIdentification of materials motion (e.g. copper)(metabolism length scales)

  32. Time series analysis Physical Trade Balance (PTB) • Physical Trade Balance (PTB) = Imports - Exports • The Mineral products imported are essentially fuels

  33. Domestic Material Consumption (DMC) • Domestic Material Consumption (DMC) = DMI - Exports • Almost all the material inputs in the Portuguese economy are for domestic consumption

  34. Addition to stock DPO to air (CO2)and to land (MSW) compared to DMI DMI ~DMC, is substantially bigger than DPO to air (CO2) and to land (MSW), and since CO2 emissions are normally the major part of the total DPO, probably a great part of the material inputs are accumulating in stocks (in this case, infrastructures)

  35. Dynamic analysis, auto and cross correlations in time series Metabolism time scale, from infraestructure to use

  36. The contribution of eco-design,a case-study in the auto-industry.

  37. LCA LCA MPV Case Study (IST data)

  38. Design-Environment Interactions Technological Solutions Design Materials Selection Power Train Technology Production Elv Processing Use Pollutants Emissions Recyclability

  39. VEHICLE M1, N1 USE 85% (2006) 95% (2015) Recovery Recycling ELV 80% (2006) 85% (2015) Re - use ELV Collection ELV Treatment Disposal EU DIRECTIVE PROPOSAL ON ELV

  40. Fluids Glass Plastics Rubber Cables ELV processing infrastructure Component suppliers Manufacturer Component suppliers Raw material producers Raw material producers Dismantler Re-use Recycling Components Hulk Steel Siderurgy ASR Shredder Non-ferr met.. Foundry Energy recovery Landfill

  41. Current recycling effectiveness R R R R R

  42. Contributions to Landfill

  43. Pesquisa & Desenvolvimento Construção de Produtos Optimizando a Reciclagem.Caixa do filtro de ar do BMW Z3.

  44. Pesquisa & Desenvolvimento Reciclagem na Produção.Consola Central do BMW Série 5. • Material: ABS + PC. • Quota de Reciclados: 100% mat. moído ou 20% mat. reciclado sem laca. • Quantidade: aprox. 200 t/a. O plástico é injectado e recebe uma película sobre a superfície.

  45. Software de ecodesign para componentes automóveis End-of-life Production Use

  46. Design forRecycling ELV processing infra-estrutucture Optimization model for ELV processing Minimum cost fulfilling regulatory requirements

  47. Conclusions • 1960-1998:Significative DMI growth,no absolute dematerialization. • DMI originated mainly from domestic environment • Strong dependence on Stone, clay and sand, associated to infrastructures development. • Transitional Economy in some indicators, material intensity. • Two complementary approaches to analyze time and length scales of the economy metabolism. • Ecodesign may contribute to this aim, either environmentally and economically

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