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Epidemic-Type Aftershock-Sequences (ETAS) model

Epidemic-Type Aftershock-Sequences (ETAS) model. 島內 30 公里以上規模大於 5 Change Interval 1.5 yrs Background Interval 4.5 yrs. 從臨界轉變的角度理解地震預測 技術 Theory of critical transitions helps understand seismicity-based earthquake prediction techniques. 中央大學地球科學系暨地球物理研究所 陳建志. Schematic Diagram of PI.

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Epidemic-Type Aftershock-Sequences (ETAS) model

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  1. Epidemic-Type Aftershock-Sequences (ETAS) model

  2. 島內30公里以上規模大於5 Change Interval 1.5 yrs Background Interval 4.5 yrs

  3. 從臨界轉變的角度理解地震預測技術Theory of critical transitions helps understand seismicity-based earthquake prediction techniques 中央大學地球科學系暨地球物理研究所陳建志

  4. Schematic Diagram of PI Time 1973 t0 t1 t2 t3 Schematic: Spatial Cross Section Of Intensity Map along a Linear Track “Change Interval” “Forecast Interval” Intensity = I Intensity Change = I Activation P = Probability = {< I >}2 Quiescence x (position) I2 I1 Data begins 1. Compute relative intensity maps: I1=I(x,t0,t1) ; I2=I(x,t0,t2). 2.Normalize them so they have the same statistics with respect to area averages. 3. Define the averageChange Map: <I> = <I2- I1> The average is over all change maps having the same change interval(t1,t2). 4. DefineP = {<I> }2, and subtract the area mean to obtainP 5. Color-contourLog10{P}on a map

  5. LURR Theory P Loading (∆R)- 0 : number ½: Benioff strain 1: energy 1/3: size (length) 2/3:size (area) (∆P)+ X+>X- , Y>1 (∆P)- (∆R)+ Unloading Loading (∆P)+ (∆R)- X+=X- , Y=1 (∆R)+ (∆P)- R Unloading Stress-strain relation of rock materials

  6. 地震斷層系統的臨界轉變模型

  7. LURR PI

  8. THANKS

  9. 觀測資料與0327埔里地震關係 震央距：19km 觀測資料有反應約 在發震5秒之後

  10. 地震前後差異： 井1 約被抬升60mV/km 井2 約 60mV/km 發震前（0303-0306） 約有3秒的相對低頻訊號

  11. 惠蓀林場潰壩與大地電場監測實驗場址 上游 上游 S 井1 井2

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