I ndirect land use change - a view from IEA Bioenergy

1. Indirect land use change - a view from IEA Bioenergy Göran Berndes IEA Bioenergy Task 43 Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden (presented by Uwe R. Fritsche, IEA Bioenergy Task 40 National Team Leader, Öko-Institut, Germany)

2. Need to discuss bioenergy/LUC with regard to • longer term perspectives • 2o Ctarget for 2050 (G8 and UNFCCC) • need for radical energy system transformation • Incentive schemes and regulation mainly concerned with iLUC favor bioenergy systems with low iLUC risks but which are in other respects inferior (e.g. overall CO2 reduction) • Strict focus on climate benefits from ecosystem protection may lead to increased conversion pressure on valuable ecosystems that have low C density

3. One critical strategic question is how society should use the ”remaining space” for GHG emissions

4. One critical strategic question is how society should use the ”remaining space” for GHG emissions • Some of the emission space might be required to develop a biomass industry capable of providing renewable energy & material services for the world in the long-term ...or use some space for developing alternatives to fossil fuels? Remaining emission space Fill it up with fossil carbon LUC for bioenergy Non-fossil fuel related Non-fossil fuel related

5. Forest bioenergy • Forest bioenergy systems are associated with carbon emissions and sequestration that are not in temporal balance with each other. • Evaluation systems that rely on narrow accounting and short time horizons fail to detect important features of forest bioenergy systems • Active forest management can ensure that increased biomass output need not take place at the cost of reduced forest carbon stocks (but biodiversity is an issue)

7. 900 Stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at levels proposed in relation to the 2-degree target requires drastic changes in the way the global energy system functions. 800 700 Atmospheric CO2 concentration (parts per million, ppm) 600 Business as usual 500 400 300 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Scenarios where the atmospheric CO2 concentrations stabilize somewhat above 450 ppm. Even lower levels needed for high likelihood of staying below 2 degree warming Source: Chalmers Climate Calculator

8. 900 Stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at levels proposed in relation to the 2-degree target requires drastic changes in the way the global energy system functions. 800 700 Atmospheric CO2 concentration (parts per million, ppm) 600 Business as usual 500 400 300 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 The BAU scenario reduces deforestation to 10% of 2010 level by 2100. Bending the BAU curve to stay below 450 ppm requires drastic energy system transformation Source: Chalmers Climate Calculator

9. 900 The effect of strongly reduced LUC emissions is relatively small compared to what is required for reaching such stabilization targets. But the lower the target the more important will LUC emissions be 800 700 Atmospheric CO2 concentration (parts per million, ppm) 600 500 400 • The difference between the two lower graphs is due to different LUC emissions. • The upmost graph corresponds to a scenario that has constant deforestation rate equal to the 2010 level up to 2100. • The lowest graph corresponds to a scenario where the deforestation rate is reduced linearly to reach 10% of the 2010 level by 2100 (same as the BAU case). 300 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Source: Chalmers Climate Calculator