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Agenda – March 2014

Agenda – March 2014. Market Condition Scott O’Neil Webinar Tuesday 3/25 (1:20 – 24:00): http://www.marketsmith.com/Learn/Webinars.aspx Decision Factors in Volatile Markets Market Trend Portfolio Leading Stocks Chart Patterns & Breakout Strategies Overall Grade for Stock Checkup

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Agenda – March 2014

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  1. Agenda – March 2014 • Market Condition • Scott O’Neil Webinar Tuesday 3/25 (1:20 – 24:00): http://www.marketsmith.com/Learn/Webinars.aspx • Decision Factors in Volatile Markets • Market Trend • Portfolio • Leading Stocks • Chart Patterns & Breakout Strategies • Overall Grade for Stock Checkup • Q&A: Specific Stock Review • IBD National Meet-Up Monthly Series: FYI ONLY: Link • Stock Contest: Target April Discussion: Anyone use Google Docs?

  2. Market Trend • Guide for how to read the IBD paper (posted in our Files section on Meetup.com): • Some possible strategies for distribution day counts: • When any market index accumulates 3-5 distribution days over any 4-5 week period, begin reducing positions • When any market index accumulates 5-6 distribution days over any 4-5 week period, begin reducing positions aggressively and raise cash, especially if there are 4 distribution days within an 8 day period • Market Pulse History: • Market Pulse History < 3/23: Link • Market Pulse History > 3/23: Link

  3. Portfolio Rules • Example of Portfolio Rules (need to have your own): • In general, have a bias for staying in the market and holding your “low average cost” blocks • Maintain a weekly overall portfolio advance/decline % trend • If the portfolio is drawn down by 7.5% from the prior week, sell all of a stock that is trading below the buy price. If the drawdown continues after that trim the least performing stocks first to reduce exposure • If three consecutive failures to the cut-loss-sell-point, then stop buying and figure out what is wrong - you are picking the wrong stocks or buying at the wrong time • Track your ratio of winners to losers (those stocks that had to be sold at a loss). The ratio should be about 3 winners to 1 loser. If your ratio is not near this level you are either picking the wrong stocks or buying at the wrong time • Always move incrementally in the market.  Add exposure when you see: 1. a Follow Through Day; 2. Additional accumulation in the indices; 3. Successful breakouts; 4. Indices pushing through resistance; 5. Your initial positions show you a profit

  4. Leading Stocks • Demonstration of IBD Screen Center: Link • IBD 50, International Leaders, Leading Sector Stocks • My Routine (Daily) • Select “Price & Volume” and sort by highest volume • Is there institutional buying/selling? • What percentage of the stock list? • Is high volume activity mostly driving prices up or down? • Note movement of specific stocks and stock groups .. any relevance to portfolio holdings? • Sort by Highest to Lowest percentage price change • What percent of the stock list is advancing versus declining? • How big are the advances and the declines? • Note movement of specific stocks and stock groups • Sector Rotations • When market is volatile watch for movement to “defense groups” such as utilities and long tenured established companies

  5. Chart Patterns & Breakout Strategies • References for Chart Patterns: Bases • Meetup.com Site: IBD Lesson 3 PDF and PowerPoint: Link • Meetup.com Site: Base Chart Patterns Visuals (Eric’s PowerPoint): • Breakout Buy Strategies • Level of conviction in stock (market condition, stock ratings, industry group rank, chart pattern, base count, etc…) • Position Size Scaling: 50% at BP, 35% at (BP+ 1.5%), 15% at (BP+2.5%) • Position Size 100% at any point between BP and BP+5% • If >5% wait for opportunity as many stocks return to their buy points after a breakout • Review specific stock examples for discussion See our Files Section on Meetup.com

  6. An Overall Grade for Stock Check-Up • Method to get 1 consolidated grade from the multiple ratings in stock checkup: Thank-You Lee Tanner from Petaluma IBD Group!

  7. Agenda – March 2014 • Market Condition • Scott O’Neil Webinar Tuesday 3/25 (1:20 – 24:00): http://www.marketsmith.com/Learn/Webinars.aspx • Decision Factors in Volatile Markets • Market Trend • Portfolio • Leading Stocks • Chart Patterns & Breakout Strategies • Overall Grade for Stock Checkup • Q&A: Specific Stock Review • IBD National Meet-Up Monthly Series: FYI ONLY: Link • Stock Contest: Target April Discussion: Anyone use Google Docs?

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