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The Calculus of Sustainability

The Calculus of Sustainability. Thomas J. Pfaff Ithaca College. What is Sustainability?. Development (Living in such a way) that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.

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The Calculus of Sustainability

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  1. The Calculus of Sustainability Thomas J. Pfaff Ithaca College

  2. What is Sustainability? • Development (Living in such a way) that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. -1987 at the World Commission on Environment and Development (the Brundtland Commission, former Norwegian Prime Minister Gro Harlem Brundtland)

  3. Three E’s or P’s of Sustainability

  4. Joint Science Academies Statement It has become increasingly clear that there are very serious difficulties related to sustainability and security of energy. These include: Major global and regional impacts on the environment, climate change, and health from an extrapolation of current energy sources and systems. June 2006

  5. National Academies Report: Climate Change The rising temperature observed since 1978 are particularly noteworthy because the rate of increase is so high and because, during the same period, the energy reaching the Earth from the Sun had been measured precisely enough to conclude that Earth’s warming was not due to changes in the Sun. -March 2006

  6. A Look at Global Temperature T(x)=0.00054x2 -0.00846x+57.1586 F T’(x)=0.00108x-0.00846 F/year x years after 1950 • T(57)= 58.43 F and T’(57)=0.0531 F/year • In 2007 the average global temperature was 58.43 deg F and increasing at a rate of 0.0531 deg F per year. - Now Ask a Question About This-

  7. Temperature Predictions • T(75)=59.6 F and T(150)=68.04 F • The model predicts that in 2025 the average temperature will be 59.6 deg F, and in 2100 it will be 68.04 deg F, an increase of 1.13 and 9.61 deg F, respectively, since 2007. –Now Ask a Question About This-

  8. More Temperature Predictions • Using T’(57)=.0531 F/year • If global temperatures continue to increase at current rates, then by 2025 there will be an increase of 0.96 deg F and by 2100 there will be an increase of 4.94 deg F. The average global temperature in those years will be 59.39 and 63.37, respectively.

  9. -National Academies Report on Climate Change (March 2006)

  10. Our Changing Climate Report • http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/global_warming/our-changing-climate-final.pdf • http://www.climatechoices.org/ca/index.html

  11. Summary of Sea Ice • 1980 • Max: 16.13 msk, x=2.59 • Min: 7.86 msk, x=8.79 • Inf: -2.20 msk/month, x=6.44 • Melt Period: 6.20 months • 2008 • Max: 15.11 msk, x=2.26 • Min: 5.40 msk, x=8.80 • Inf: -2.84 msk/month, x=6.77 • Melt Period: 6.54 months

  12. Glacier Pair Images • http://www.windows.ucar.edu/teacher_resources/glacier_then_now.pdf

  13. M. King Hubbert’s (1903-1989), chief consultant-general geology- for shell development company, 1956 paper Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels.

  14. Normal Density: • 55% of all domestic oil was consumed from 1960 to 2000: • 99% of all domestic oil is predicted to be consumed by 2036:

  15. Resources • http://www.ithaca.edu/tpfaff/sustainability.htm • http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/global_warming/our-changing-climate-final.pdf • http://www.climatechoices.org/ca/index.html • http://www.theoildrum.com/ • http://narccap.ucar.edu/data/index.html

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