Action on Climate Change in South Africa: Challenges And Opportunities Shirley Moroka

1. Action on Climate Change in South Africa: Challenges And Opportunities Shirley Moroka 9 August 2006, São Paolo, Brazil

2. This Presentation: • Institutional arrangements • Energy mix and emissions • Vulnerability and adaptation • What has been done? • Current activities • The need for a plan of action

3. Institutional arrangements • DEAT focal point- coordination role • IMC- DEAT, DST, DME, DFA, DoA, DWAF, DoT, DPE • IDC (GCCC)- same as above • NCCC- National departments, Provinces, Municipalities, academia, industry, NGOs,

4. Energy Overview: Supply 2004

5. Where do SA’s emissions come from? • Key sources of emissions • Energy sector ~80% of GHG emissions • Supply on its own 45% (Eskom and Sasol) … • … but also users – industry, transport, others • The challenge of mitigation in SA is an energy question • No question that the fuel mix will have to change • if SA is to take some responsibility for mitigation • SA’s emissions are increasing … • … and high in international comparison

6. Major sources of emissions are energy supply and use Waste 4% Agriculture 9% Industry 8% Energy industries Fugitive emissions 45% 2% Other energy 7% Transport 11% Industrial energy 14% Share of national GHG emissions, 1994

7. Emissions from electricity projected to increase over time 300 250 Projected CO2 emissions from electricity supply, NIRP reference case 200 Mt CO2 150 100 50 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Based on data for the NER’s 2003/4 National Integrated Resource Plan

8. SA’s share of emissions, GDP and population 1.23% 0.92% 0.73% GDP Emissions Population SA's share of global total • Data source: Climate Analysis Indicator Tool, WRI

9. SA emissions in international comparison • SA contributes 1-1.5% of global emissions • Share differs, depending on gases, sources and time-frame considered • SA’s share of annual energy CO2 emissions is more than 50% higher than for historical cumulative CO2 emissions with LULUCF • Challenge for SA: • Emissions per GDP and per capita high

10. DIRECT IMPACTS Water Resources Agriculture Forestry Human Health Biodiversity ECONOMIC Fossil fuel based economy Coal exporter Developing economy Financial constraints Insufficient appropriate technology POINTS OF VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE DUE TO DIRECT IMPACTS

11. Some programmes that have been implemented in SA to adapt? • Sectoral programmes focused on poverty • Landcare – transforms unsustainable agricultural practice • Working for Water – alien plant removal to restore water • Working for Wetlands – restoration of water sources • Working on Fire – Fire control • Potential for the use of LULUCF & sink strategies for mitigation are limited • Little forest cover • For SA, LULUCF is a vulnerability & adaptation issue

12. What has SA done in response to climate change? • National climate change response strategy • Outreach, • National climate change conference • Ministerial Indaba • CDM DNA established • Renewable energy target • 10 000 GWh by 2013 • Energy efficiency strategy • 12% less final energy demand than BAU in 2014 • NEM-Air Quality Act provisions • Controlled emitters • Controlled fuels • Reporting • Air quality management plans • Priority pollutants?? • Etc.

13. CDM in South Africa • Small but growing • Established Designated National Authority in the Dept of Minerals & Energy (http://www.dme.gov.za) • 29 CDM projects submitted to the DNA (11 PDDs, 18 PINs) • 44 MtCO2 over the period 2005 to 2012; possibly 942 Mt in PINs • Actively engaging in carbon markets • Emissions derivative trading on JHB Stock Exchange • Markets need certainty to secure carbon as a long term tradable commodity i.e. second commitment period for Kyoto (article 3.9) • Uneven geographical distribution issue for Africa

14. Current Activities • Air Quality Act implementation • GHG inventory systems • Vehicles emissions strategy • Climate change R&D strategy • Technology needs assessment • Sector implementation plans of the national climate change response strategy • Bio-fuels task-force (food security & water scarcity)

15. South Africa understands urgency of action “One of our most urgent challenges as the global community is to convince all nations to join and support the international effort to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases. I have no doubt that the next few years will be crucial to move us out of an approach of stalling, of avoidance, and of excuses to one where we all accept our responsibility to deal with climate change within an inclusive multilateral international framework. Climate change is a global scourge and requires a unified global partnership for action”. – Minister van Schalkwyk, April 2005 at ‘Champion of the Earth’ award

16. Need for a Plan of Action • All nations accept responsibility to deal with climate change within an inclusive multilateral regime that balances adaptation & mitigation • Consolidate fragmented decisions into a coherent programme of work. • Coordinate different strands of work • Supported by financing and improved investment environment from both public and private sources • Engage – political level; private sector, finance ministers, public …

17. Thank You