Simulating Police Outcomes: A Framework for Understanding Policing Strategies

1. Simulating Police Outcomes:A Framework for UnderstandingPolicing Strategies John E. Eck University of Cincinnati Division of Criminal Justice Presentation at the meeting on Crime Hot Spots: Behavioral, Computational and Mathematical Models Institute for Pure and Applied Mathematics, UCLA January 29 - February 2, 2007

2. An Initial Thought ..computer simulations are actually philosophical thought experiments, intuition pumps, not empirical experiments. They systematically explore the implications of sets of assumptions. Daniel Dennett

3. Barbarian Invasions and Crime • Standard criminology is bankrupt • A good invasion can help • Mostly raids – uncooperative, naive, and short • Taking the easy loot • Leaving some methods but little insight • Need to settle, interbreed, and stay • Welcome Barbarians!

4. Introduction • Simulating police is a subset of simulating crime • Early simulations focused now discredited policing strategies • Topics • Police Strategies – roles and effectiveness • Simulation Framework – 4 parts • Focused Policing • Problem-oriented Policing

5. Diverse Community Problem-oriented Range of Interventions Specificity Analysis Tailored interventions Evaluation Partnering Public interactions Building support ambiguous effective Standard Model Focused Patrolling Investigations Fast Response Hotspots patrols Repeat offender invest. Repeat victimization Narrow – Law enforcement ineffective effective general specific Focus Police Strategies & Evidence Adapted from, Weisburd, D. & J.E. Eck 2004 “What Can Police Do to Reduce Crime, Disorder and Fear?” The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science. 593: 42-65.

6. Diverse Problem-oriented Community Range of Interventions Simulations important for a) understanding problems; b) pre-testing interventions; and c) evaluating results. Simulation low utility due to lack of clarity of means and ends Standard Model Focused Potential for simulation, particularly first generation simulations. Evidence suggests insufficient fecundity to be a central focus. Part of larger simulation. Narrow – Law enforcement general specific Focus Strategies and Simulations

7. 4 Requirements • Problem/Patterns (change) are outputs • Error modeling must be built in • Standard policing part of background • Model intervention mechanisms

8. 1. Simulation of Problem/Pattern 2. Reporting/Recording Filter 3. Simulation of Standard Operations 4. Simulation of Problem Interventions Output Human eye view of patterns Gods’ eye view of patterns Basic Parts of Police Simulations

9. Filtering & Calibration Results of valid sims of this Crime event i occurrences Crime event i reports to police May not reflect this Crime events recorded and classified as i, j, k etc Everybody knows the dice are loaded. Everybody roles with their fingers crossed. Leonard Cohen “Everybody Knows”

10. ? Probability of reporting this crime to the police A C B Number of previous victimizations The Great Mystery of Crime Reporting How does victimization experience influence peoples willingness to report crimes to the police?

11. 1. Simulation of Problem/Pattern 2. Reporting/Recording Filter 3. Simulation of Standard Operations 4. Simulation of Problem Interventions Output Human eye view of patterns Gods’ eye view of patterns Simulating Standard Policing

12. Standard Policing • Vary density of police patrols • Vary speed of response • Vary offender removal settings • Vary filter simulation settings

13. Simulating Focused Policing 1. Simulation of Problem/Pattern 2. Reporting/Recording Filter Sim. of crime analysis 3. Simulation of Standard Operations 4. Simulation of Problem Interventions Output Human eye view of patterns Gods’ eye view of patterns

14. Focused Policing • Simulate a crime analysis function • Detects hotspots • Patrols respond to detected hotspots • Vary sensitivity, error, speed, & intensity of analysis and patrols • Create analogous arrangements for focusing on offender networks and repeat victims

15. Links known Unknown links Perceived Hotspots in Offender & Victim Spaces Commuting time income age

16. Simulating P-O Policing 1. Simulation of Problem/Pattern 2. Reporting/Recording Filter 3. Simulation of Standard Operations Sim. of problem analysis 4. Simulation of Problem Interventions Output Human eye view of patterns Gods’ eye view of patterns

17. Problem-oriented • Problem Analysis simulation is a simulation of the problem simulation • Allows testing of various heuristics • Can be used to study knowledge limitations • Range of interventions broad • Mechanisms for interventions diverse • Simultaneous multiple intervention points possible • Can be applied to non-police interventions

18. Intervention Selection Planning & Evaluation Simulation of Problem Simulation of Problem Analysis Simulating POP vs Simulating Intervention Simulation of Problems Intervention simulation POP Simulation

19. Examples of Intervention Simulations • Model of crowds used to simulate alternative parade routes (Batty 2005) • Design street barricade arrangements based on crime and traffic flow models • Experimentally vary place management intensity for landlord interventions Batty, M. 2005 Cities and Complexity: Understanding Cities with Cellular Automata, Agent-Based Models, and Fractals. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

20. Analysis Units in 3 Strategies Standard Model – No analysis: patrols wander or go to most recent crime Focused Policing – Analysis detects spatial-temporal cluster: patrol of clusters Problem-Oriented Policing – Analysis models problem: police address process

21. Conclusions • Welcome • Pay attention to existing evidence • Pay attention to useful theories • Pay attention to data errors • Pay attention to forms of policing

22. A Final Cautionary Note Today's scientists have substituted mathematics for experiments, and they wander off through equation after equation, and eventually build a structure which has no relation to reality. Nikola Tesla

23. Further Reading • Center for Problem-Oriented Policing www.popcenter.org