Socio-technical transitions: Multi-level perspective, pattterns and mechanisms

1. Socio-technical transitions: Multi-level perspective, pattterns and mechanisms Prof. Frank Geels SPRU, University of Sussex, UK DTU, 10 May 2010, Copenhagen

2. Contents • Topic of transitions • Alternative theories • Multi-level perspective • Future agenda: 4.1 Differentiation, elaboration 4.2. Mechanisms (agency-related) 5. Conclusions

3. 1. Topic of analysis Transitions to sustainability

4. Level of societal functions

5. Socio-technical system transitions

6. Multi-actor process (organizational field)

7. Socio-technical transitions are: • Multi-actor process • Co-evolution process (multiple elements) * Technical changes * Wider changes, e.g. regulations, user practice, infrastructure, culture

8. 2. Alternative theories Dynamics of transitions? 1. Technological substitution models 2. Punctuated equilibrium perspective 3. Long-wave theory

9. 1. Technological substitution

10. Problems, shortcomings • 'Point source' or 'push' approach ('follow the hero') • David-versus-Goliath storyline • Decline of existing technology (+ lock-in, inertia) is taken for granted • Focus on market, technology. • No politics, culture, infrastructure, etc.

11. 2. Punctuated equilibrium(Tushman, Anderson) Strength: Conceptualises change and stability

12. Problems • Emergence of radical innovations unclear (blind, random, ‘genius’) • Technology-push character: New technologies cause ‘era of ferment’ (technological determinism) 3. Mainly technology + markets No politics, culture, etc.

13. 3. Long-wave theory (Freeman, Perez, Louca)

14. Strengths: • Co-evolution of pervasive technology and society • Interest in (macro)transitions • Problems • Technology-push: Techno-economic does the ‘acting’. Socio-institutional is ‘reacting’ (some Marxist tendencies) • Emergence of novelty unclear (Big Bang)

15. Lifecycle of a technological revolution (Perez, 2002)

16. 3. Multi-level perspective (MLP) Conceptual backgrounds • Evolutionary economics • Science and technology studies (STS) • Neo-institutional theory

17. Nested hierarchy (static)* variation/novelty in niches* selection at regime + landscape levels* multi-dimensional + enacted

18. Regime: inertia, lock-in, path dependence • Economic: • vested interests • sunk investments (competence, infrastructure) • scale advantages, low cost • Social: • cognitive routines make ‘blind’ (beliefs) • alignment between social groups (‘social capital’) • user practices, values and life styles

19. Power: • Opposition to change from vested interests • Uneven playing field + policy networks Analytical problem: how to overcome lock-in?

22. Transition processes involve: 1) Internal momentum of niche-innovations (various processes; SNM) 2) External landscape pressures 3) Tensions in regime  'windows of opportunity'

23. Strengths (compared to other theories) • Radical innovation is socially enacted process • Selection by regime + landscape • Selection is multi-dimensional + enacted • Analyse stability of regime + niche-innovation journey • Multiple transition pathways

24. 4. Future agenda 4.1. Differentation, elaboration of MLP (questioning, adding, reformulating) Transition pathways 1. Technological substitution 2. Regime transformation (endogenous) 3. Regime reconfiguration 4. De-alignment and re-alignment

25. 1. Technological substitution

26. 2. Transformation pathway

27. 3. Reconfiguration pathway

28. 4. De-alignment and re-alignment

29. Possible additional pathways What if we focus on multiple regimes? • From one regime to multiple regimes (specialization, differentiation) • From multiple regimes to one regime (e.g. ICT) • Linking multiple regimes through niches (biofuels, CHP, BEV) • ?????

30. Other patterns • Add-on and hybridization • Fit-stretch pattern • Hype-disappointment cycles • Niche-accumulation pattern

31. 1. Add-on and hybridization Rising Star (1822) Comet (1812) Great Britain (1843) Great Eastern (1858)

32. 2. Fit-stretch pattern: • Changing beliefs about form and function • Learning, negotiation, debate

33. Technical novelty + showing off (1880s) Daimler’s horseless carriage (1885) Electric car (1880s) used in parks, promenading

34. Adventure machine (1895-1910): Racing + touring Mercedes from 1901.

35. Utilitarian automobile(1910-1920) Practical use by professionals (not 'fun', pleisure) T-Ford (1908): strong, sturdy, cheap

36. Multifunctional automobile (1920-1940) * Commuting * Tourism * Professions

37. 3. Hype-disappointment cycles (Gartner)

38. Hype-cycles in debates of ‘green’ car propulsion systems

39. 4. Niche-accumulation pattern Example of cars

40. Steamship niche-trajectory

41. 4.2. Agency and mechanisms • Cartel of fear (first-mover risks) • Innovation race (Totota Prius) • New entrants overthrow established firms • Sailing ship effect

42. The Thomas Lawson (1902-1907)

43. More to be done on: • Cultural framing (legitimacy) • Power struggles + strategic games (social movements, corporatist networks, political economy) • ?????

44. 5. Conclusions MLP produced useful insights for: * long-term and large scale processes * stability and change * dynamics, patterns, mechanisms * multi-actor + multi-dimensional But is ongoing research program. Constructive criticism,elaboration welcome + needed.

45. Ad 1) Momentum of niches Economic perspectives: a) Learning by doing b) Increasing returns to adoption (scale, network externalities), c) Strategic games between firms, innovation races, bandwagon effects Sociological perspectives (socio-cognitive): a) Contagion effects, critical mass, tipping points, b) Cognitive and socio-political legitimacy ('liability of newness'), discourses, social movements, c) Self-fulfilling prophecies, expectations, visions that make themselves come true Power and politics: a) Power struggles in market (standard-battles, strategic alliances, patent barriers), b) Opposition from societal actors, stakeholders (risk, vested interests, negative externalities) c) Policy: Adjustments in regulations, investment in infrastructure, lobbying in policy networks