Advice for the Wise - Karvy Private Wealth Report 2016

1. ADVICE FOR THE WISE September 2016

2. CONTENTS From The CEO’s Desk • Did You Know? • Domestic Equity Outlook • Domestic Debt Outlook • Domestic Debt Strategy • Global Equity Outlook • Global Economy Update • Global Debt Outlook • Sector Outlook • Real Estate Outlook • Commodities • Foreign Exchange • What’s Trending. • Disclaimer •

3. FROM THE CEO’s DESK Dear Investors, Ending months of speculation, the government finally appointed Dr. Urjit Patel as the next RBI Governor, who is set to take over the helm of affairs at the Central Bank on 4th September. Equity markets, investors and the corporate world in general have given a big thumbs up to this announcement as they anticipate a continuation of the policy stance implemented by Dr. Raghuram Rajan. Under Dr. Patel, the RBI is expected to continue its focus on Inflation targeting, speedy recovery of the stressed assets of public sector banks and improvement of credit growth and the liquidity framework within the country. As a parting gift, Dr. Rajan announced a slew of measures aimed at boosting the corporate bond market, broadening the forex market and permitting banks to issue masala bonds in overseas markets. The RBI will move to cap the exposure of banks to large borrowers, while at the same time permit corporates to issue bonds to raise funding. This will prevent companies from being overly dependent on banks for their funding and permit regulated investors (like insurance companies) to invest in bonds issued by a wider range of companies. Dr. Rajan indicated that the RBI will eventually start accepting corporate bonds as collateral at its liquidity adjustment facility window, which essentially means that banks would be able to use corporate bonds as security to borrow from the RBI. Separately, the central bank will allow banks to raise rupee resources through masala bonds as well as give foreign investors direct access to the bond trading platforms. The impact of these reforms is likely to be far-reaching.

4. Meanwhile, as global liquidity flows sobered down, the Indian equity markets too tempered their frenetic pace. Nonetheless, the Nifty managed to touch a 16-month high of 8800. Given the negative interest rate scenario in Japan and Europe, coupled with the volatility seen after the Brexit referendum, the US Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates in its forthcoming meeting in September. Going ahead, we expect our Indian markets to continue doing well and we urge investors to use every dip as a buying opportunity. As we enter into the festive season, we expect the domestic consumption-driven stocks and sectors to take the markets to higher levels. On a separate note, the performance of our women athletes at the Rio Olympics needs to be truly lauded. The dedication, enthusiasm and commitment shown by our triumvirate of Sindhu, Sakshi and Dipa embody the never-given-in spirit of true winners. The nation is proud of them! Let me end this note by wishing you all a Happy Ganesh Chaturthi! May Lord Ganesha shower his blessings on you and your families!

5. DID YOU KNOW United States has the largest gold Reserve more than 8,000 metric tons of gold followed by Germany gold reserves of approximately 3,378.2 metric tons As a economy China lifted more Argentina has highest interest people out of poverty than any rates in the world 20% on one-year other country. time deposit. .

6. DOMESTIC EQUITY OUTLOOK

7. As on 25th August 2016 1 Year Change 1 Month Change Emerging markets are being driven by global liquidity in search of yields. While US has reiterated its resolve to increase interest BSE Sensex 27,835 -0.50% 8.25% rates, Japan and the EU are engaged in a race to the bottom CNX Nifty 8,592 0.02% 10.27% driving monetary policy to uncharted territories. Investors are Equity Markets debating the limits of monetary policy and looking forward to a BSE Mid Cap 12,977 4.48% 23.87% more creative use of fiscal policy by the developed economies. Periodic spurts in global yields have failed to dampen the BSE Small Cap 12,501 2.90% 16.71% enthusiasm of bond bulls. Although economic fundamentals in India are progressively getting better, the next few months will not 140 S & P BSE Sensex CNX Nifty BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap be about Indian fundamentals. Global developments would be the 130 key driver of sentiments and stock prices. 120 110 100 90 80

8. DOMESTIC EQUITY OUTLOOK GOVERNMENT POLICY The much awaited GST bill has been finally passed by both houses of Parliament and is likely to be ratified by half the Indian state legislatures paving the way for its rollout for FY17-18. Railway budget is likely to be subsumed in the Union budget for FY17-18 marking a historic departure from convention.

9. 8.00% WPI CPI 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% -6.00% Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX CONSUMER PRICE INDEX India's wholesale prices index continued in positive territory at CPI for the month of June remained flat at 5.77% as • • 3.55% for July, 2016 as compared to 1.62% for the month of compared to 5.76% in May. June. Year-on-year, cost of food and beverages rose 7.38 percent • Food articles inflation increased in the month of June by (7.2 percent in May). • 11.82%. Vegetables increased by 28.05%. Inflation in the fuel The food prices rose by 7.79% compared to downwardly • and power segment was -1.0%, while that of manufactured revised 7.47% in the previous month. products it was 1.82% in June. Source – Tradingeconomics

10. GDP IIP 9.0 15.0% 8.0 10.0% 7.0 5.0% 6.0 5.0 0.0% 4.0 -5.0% IIP GDP Industrial output in India rose by 2,1 percent year-on-year in june of 2016, against upwardly revised 1.1% in May 2016. • India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the first quarter of the current financial year slowed down to 7.1% versus 7.9% for the previous quarter. • Manufacturing rose 0.9%, as against 0.6% in May. Meanwhile, the mining sector output increased by 4.7% in May 2016. • Private consumption growth eased to 6.7 percent from 8.3 percent in the previous quarter while government spending jumped 18.8 percent, accelerating from a 2.9 percent growth in Q1. Gross fixed capital formation shrank at a faster 3.1 percent, following a 1.9 percent contraction in the previous period. • Source – Tradingeconomics

11. DOMESTIC DEBT OUTLOOK Corporate Bond Spreads 250 5 Years 10 Years 15 Years As on 25th August 2016 1 Month Change 200 1 Year Change 150 10-Yr G-Sec- Yield 7.12 (13bps) (67bps) 100 Debt Markets Fixed Deposit 7.25 0bps (75bps) 50 0 The yields on 10 Yr G sec closed at 7.25% which is 21 bps  AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ lower than the last months close of 7.43% G-Sec 8.80 The daily turnover for the notes on the Reserve Bank of India’s  8.60 10 YR Gsec Yield 5 YR Gsec Yield 15 YR Gsec Yield 8.40 dealing platform reached an unprecedented 1.43 trillion rupees 8.20 8.00 ($21.4 billion) on 28th July. At 921 billion rupees, the daily 7.80 average value of securities traded for the month of July was 7.60 7.40 also an all-time high, and more than double the amount for the 7.20 7.00 first six months of 2016, as benchmark 10-year bonds capped 6.80 their best month since May 2013. Source – Reuters

12. DOMESTIC DEBT STRATEGY Investors who have a low appetite for interest rate volatility and seeking accrual returns with moderate duration can look at short term debt funds with the time horizon of 1 year to 2 years. Even though, most of the short term fund’s YTMs have fallen to sub-8%, our recommended short term debt funds still have high YTMs (8%-10%) providing interesting investment opportunities. SHORT TERM DEBT CORPORATE BOND FUNDS The macro economic outlook along with corporate profitability seems to be improving. We remain positive on the credit outlook and look for opportunities in the credit space. The corporate bond market segment continues to be attractive over the medium to long term. The yields are at elevated levels and interest rate outlook seems favourable. The current scenario offers the potential opportunity to lock in higher accruals, with the expectation that these levels of yields may not sustain over the short to medium term. With credit easing, there are chances that the companies’ rating will be upgraded that would further cause a rally in bonds, which in turn will benefit corporate bond funds. DYNAMIC BOND FUNDS As RBI has reduced the key policy rates, dynamic bond funds have benefited a lot as most of them have a mix of gilt and long term bonds in their portfolio. Going ahead, we expect RBI to further reduce key policy rates only after studying the macro-economic data such as inflation, movement in crude oil prices and so on. Investors who don’t want to time the market and who can depend on fund managers to take view on interest rates can look at dynamic bond funds. LONG TERM DEBT FUNDS With the likelihood of another rate cut being minimal and the uncertainty with regard to the monsoon and global commodity prices, particularly crude oil, a rally in G-Sec yields is unlikely. Investors should start exiting their investments in Gilt Funds and Long Term Income Funds and go for accrual based short term funds.

13. GLOBAL EQUITY OUTLOOK

14. GLOBAL INDICES 140 MSCI World Hang Seng S&P 500 Nikkei As on 25th August 2016 1 Month Change 1 Year Change 130 120 110 MSCI World 1727 1.25% 6.86% 100 90 Hang Seng 22814 3.10% 8.23% 80 Equity Markets S&P 500 2172 0.15% 11.95% 70 Nikkei 16555 1.06% -9.91%

15. GLOBAL EQUITY OUTLOOK US is likely to increase interest rates in the September policy marking a decisive turn in the trajectory of global interest rates and a benign liquidity environment.

16. GLOBAL ECONOMY UPDATE U.S. to urge G20 to boost economies, pay attention to angry citizens U.S. President Barack Obama will call on leaders from the Group of 20 to use fiscal policy and other tools to boost economic growth while reducing excess capacity at steel factories. UNITED STATES   U.S. economic growth was slightly more tepid than initially thought in the second quarter as businesses aggressively ran down inventories, offsetting a spurt in consumer spending. Gross domestic product expanded at a 1.1 percent annual rate. That was modestly down from the 1.2 percent rate it reported last month and also reflected more imports than previously estimated as well as weak government spending. Japanese manufacturing activity showed signs of steadying in August as output rose for the first time in six months, in a tentative sign that the economy may be recovering from a slump earlier this year. The IHS Markit/Nikkei Japan Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) edged up to 49.6 in August from a final 49.3 in July on a seasonally adjusted basis.  JAPAN  Japanese manufacturers' mood soured in August to its lowest since 2013 when the central bank embarked on aggressive monetary easing. According to the Reuters poll, reflecting the pain caused by a rising yen and highlighting the huge task facing policymakers to generate growth. Source – Reuters

17. GLOBAL ECONOMY UPDATE Higher exports, state spending propel German growth Solid economic growth generated a record budget surplus for Germany in the first half of this year, stoking a debate within government about whether the country should use its spare revenue to cut taxes or increase spending. EUROPE   London firms losing faith in quick-fix access to EU after Brexit Big financial groups in London are losing faith in a quick fix to get access to the European Union after Britain leaves the bloc and are instead drawing up contingency plans to avoid becoming hostage to Brussels politics. Indian factory activity expanded at its fastest pace since mid-2015 in August, helped by surging new orders, while only modest price increases should give the central bank scope to ease policy further, ndian annual economic growth slowed in the April-June quarter to 7.1 percent, short of expectations for 7.6 percent according Reuters poll. EMERGING ECONOMIES   Activity in China's manufacturing sector unexpectedly expanded in August, though growth was modest. The official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.4 in August, compared with the previous month's 49.9 and above the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis.. Source – Reuters

18. GLOBAL DEBT OUTLOOK The Russian government is hoping to tap the international capital markets again this year and could raise another $1.25bn from a Eurobond issue.  1 Month Change Ratings Country 10 Yr G-Sec Yield  Saudi Arabia will probably push ahead with the sale of at least $10 billion of bonds even if the U.S. raises interest rates next month, spurred on by demand for emerging-market assets that may leave enough room for other Gulf states to follow.. Qatar National Bank is planning to tap the international bond market, The bank is set to issue a 5-year bond of at least $500m, adding to what has already been a record year of issuance for the group. Germany -0.06% 4 bps Hong Kong 0.97% 3 bps AAA Sweden 0.09% (2 bps) Switzerland  -0.46% 10 bps AA+ USA 1.59% 10 bps China 2.82% 3 bps AA- Japan -0.05% 9 bps Source – Reuters

19. SECTOR OUTLOOK

20. SECTOR OUTLOOK SECTOR STANCE REMARKS Passenger vehicles and CVs will continue to outperform two-wheeler segment. Tractors to benefit on account of base effect and normal monsoons. Auto-ancillaries expected to do well due to revival of demand and stable global markets. Automobiles We prefer “discretionary consumption” theme within FMCG. Key beneficiaries such as durables and branded garments, as the growth in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable incomes. A bounce in raw materials could put pressure on margins. Expect uptick in volumes post monsoons. FMCG Order inflows expected to improve as spending and capital expenditure likely to move up on economic recovery. Moreover, sluggish execution and weak macros create a challenging environment. E&C Private sector banks continue to deliver earnings in line with expectations. However, PSBs delivering poor numbers on higher slippages and lower credit growth. We expect this trend to continue for next few quarters. BFSI

21. SECTOR OUTLOOK SECTOR STANCE REMARKS Positive impact would be due to currency volatility which would be offset by the Negative impact from the slower volume growth in the EU regions IT/ITES Lack of fuel linkages , poor SEB health, adverse CERC guidelines have compromised the ROE’s leading to de-rating in near term. Reform initiatives through UDAY can improve sector prospects in long run. Power Utilities Cement volumes and realizations saw uptick in South region. Early signs of recovery, specifically hopes of bounce back in North and West region due to pick up in infrastructure. Cost benefits would continue to drive earnings. Cement Regulatory risks have become more evident and frequent with FDA inspections for Pharma companies. US growth continues to be muted for large caps due to lower approvals and regulatory issues. Healthcare

22. SECTOR OUTLOOK SECTOR STANCE REMARKS Crude prices at 6 month high, though prices have corrected by 15% in past one month and substantially lower on annual basis. Nil subsidy in FY16 for OMC’s is a positive. Trend expected to continue. Energy Regulatory uncertainties have come down. However, aggressive bids for spectrum has revived fears of sub-optimal returns on capital. Further, expected launch of R-Jio at competitive prices in Q2FY17 will have negative implications. Telecom Lower global growth and Chinese slowdown has kept the growth subdued. Some recovery seen over past few months with Chinese economy stabilizing. Long term prospects continue to remain weak. Metals

23. REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK

24. REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK Tier I Tier II RESIDENTIAL With improvements in infrastructure across cities like The Central Government has eased FDI norms and lifted Chandigarh, Jaipur, Lucknow, Ahmedabad, Bhopal, restrictions on ticket size, Project size and stage of entry Nagpur, Patna and Cochin and quality products being of capital thus, paving way for virtually any project to offered the end users /investors are being spoilt for receive Foreign equity funds. Residential Prices have choice. The Demand drivers have increased remained stagnant across Tier I markets. All Tier I nuclearization, rising disposable incomes and easier markets have continued to witness moderate decrease in availability of credit. demand with sluggish market sentiments.

25. REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK Tier I Tier II COMMERCIAL Low unit sizes have played an important role in Bangalore NCR and Hyderabad have seen strong maintaining the absorption levels in these markets. Lease demand in the commercial segment and even Mumbai rentals as well as capital values continue to be stable at has picked up in the later half of the year. The capital their current levels in the commercial asset class. values have also been on rise in major markets except in NCR where values have remained stable. Absorption volumes have been surpassing new completions consistently, since H1 2014, as a result of which, the vacancy levels in India have been dwindling.

26. REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK Tier I Tier II RETAIL The Mall concept is new to Tier II cities and High Street In Mumbai demand for space in successful malls retail is still popular. Anecdotal evidence suggests that continued to be on the rise and categories such as F&B, rentals have remained stagnant in this space. premium apparel and entertainment dominated leasing activity. International brands were seen increasing their footprints . Hyderabad has seen a steady growth in demand while markets like NCR, Bangalore and Chennai remained stagnant.

27. REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK Tier I Tier II LAND Land in Tier II and III cities along upcoming / established Fringe areas with improving connectivity to Metro cities growth corridors have seen good percentage appreciation and other top 8 to 10 cities in India have seen interest in due to low investment base in such areas. purchase of Plotted / Villa developments due to lower ticket size and better marketing by developers /aggregators. There is an uptick in demand for warehousing with the growth of E commerce.

28. COMMODITIES GOLD Gold 32000 Gold has seen a smart appreciation in this calendar year. Global 31000 uncertainties have pushed international gold prices beyond $1300. 30000 29000 Any risk aversion due to macro or geo-political news flows could 28000 27000 strengthen its prices. Near term range remains $1300-1400. 26000 25000 As on 25th August, 2016 : 31,281 per 10gm • 24000 1 month change : 1.68% • 1 year change : 17.16% •

29. COMMODITIES CRUDE OIL Crude prices have stabilized between $40- $50 per barrel. Crude Crude along with Gold continues be the prime indicator of 60.00 global risk appetite. It is unlikely that Crude spends more time 40.00 in the current range and a massive breakout is imminent in 20.00 either direction depending on global conditions. 0.00 As on 25th July, 2016 : $49.25 per bbl • 1 month change : 13.10% • 1 year change : 17.90% •

30. FOREIGN EXCHANGE As on 25th August 2015 Currency 1 Month Change 1 Year Change • The World Bank issued 500 million SDR units ($698 million) of three-year notes in China’s interbank market this week, the first sale of debt in the International Monetary Fund’s alternative reserve assets since the 1980s. -0.42% -1.38% USD/INR 67.09 0.55% 17.17% GBP/INR 88.66 1.93% 0.39% Euro/INR 75.59 • The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) bragged the Lion City remains the largest foreign exchange centre in the Asia-Pacific region and the third largest globally after London and New York. MAS revealed that the average daily trading volume of Singapore’s forex market swelled 35% to US$517 billion in April 2016 from US$383 billion in the same month three years ago. 3.50% -17.30% Yen/INR 66.84 0.88 0.41% 0.11% USD/Euro 4.00% 3.50% 3.00% 1.93% 2.00% • The country's foreign exchange reserves rose by $1.3 billion to $367.2 billion in the week to August 26 on account of increase in foreign currency assets. 1.00% 0.55% 0.00% USD GBP EURO YEN -0.42% -1.00%

31. WHAT’S TRENDING URJIT PATEL ANNOUNCED AS THE NEW RBI GOVERNOR Profile • Urjit Patel, 52, is presently one of the four deputy governors at the RBI. He has run the central bank's monetary policy department since 2013 and has worked closely with the Raghuram Rajan during his stint at the central bank. Patel was advisor (energy & infrastructure) to The Boston Consulting Group. He is a PhD (economics) from Yale University (1990) and MPhil from Oxford (1986). He has been a non-resident Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution since 2009. Between 1990 and 1995, Patel was with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), where he worked on the US, India, Bahamas and Myanmar desks. During 1996-97 he was on deputation from the IMF to the RBI and provided advice on development of the debt market, banking sector reforms, pension fund reforms, real exchange rate targeting and evolution of the foreign exchange market. Patel has also served the government in various positions during the NDA-I regime. Apart from these, his other assignments include, president (business development), Reliance Industries; executive director and member of the management committee, IDFC; member of the Integrated Energy Policy Committee of the Government of India; and member of the Board, Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation Ltd, the RBI site said. Between 2000 and 2004, Patel has worked closely with several Central and state government high-level committees such as, Task Force on Direct Taxes, Union Ministry of Finance; Advisory Committee (on Research Projects and Market Studies), Competition Commission of India; secretariat for the Prime Minister’s Task Force on Infrastructure; Group of Ministers on Telecom Matters; Committee on Civil Aviation Reforms; Ministry of Power’s Expert Group on State Electricity Boards and High Level Expert Group for Reviewing the Civil & Defence Services Pension System, Government of India. • • • • • • Source – www.rbi.org.in, www.wikipedia.com, www.firstpost.com

32. WHAT’S TRENDING Current Monetary Policy Status • The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has committed itself to a regime of flexible inflation targeting. Flexible inflation targeting means that a central bank will try to keep inflation close to its formal target while being sensitive to conditions in the real economy. • In the new monetary policy framework, persistently high inflation is deemed unacceptable because it harms economic growth over the medium term, as is well known. • The monetary policy will be flexible as long as inflation is within the range that has been given by the political system. Raghuram Rajan had to fight a blazing inflationary fire when he took charge three years ago. Inflation is now within the acceptable range—though the trend in recent months is ample cause for worry. • The trade-off between inflation and growth was relatively easier when inflation was being brought down in the first two stages—from 10% to 8% and then from 8% to 6%. The journey from 6% to 4% will be much more difficult. It could involve a much higher sacrifice ratio. That is why the nature of the monetary policy response could change in the coming months—not because there is a new governor, but because the underlying economic situation has changed. Monetary policy could be more flexible than widely assumed. • Patel will now have to share the power to set interest rates with a new monetary policy committee (MPC). • Patel is a reticent man—though he has actually given more speeches as deputy governor than the two speeches that have been mentioned in media reports after he was appointed governor. How he eventually runs Indian monetary policy will depend on the state of the underlying economy, but it is important to remember that the recent victories in the long battle against high inflation will give him space to be flexible. There is a reason it is called flexible inflation targeting. Source – www.livemint.com

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