Advancing the Societal and Economic Applications of Weather Information

1. Societal and Economic Research and Applications Working Group (SERA WG) Brian Mills Chair, WWRP-SERA WG Meteorological Research Division Environment Canada c/o Faculty of Environment, University of Waterloo Waterloo, ON, Canada N2L 3G1 Brian.Mills@ec.gc.ca City of Calgary, June 21, 2013 - T. Martin, Calgary Herald http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/weather_society.html

2. Context Munich Re (2013)

3. Context Munich Re (2013)

4. Context

5. SERA WG The primary purpose of the WG SERA is to advance the science of the social and economic application of weather-related information and services. This is accomplished in part through the development, review and promotion of societal and economic-related demonstration projects focused on high-impact weather (HIW) and information. Activities address one or more of the following priority knowledge and application areas: • estimation of the economic (societal) value of weather information; • understanding and improving the use of weather information in decision making; • understanding and improving the communication of weather forecast uncertainty; • development of user-relevant verification methods; and • development of decision support systems and tools.

6. Membership L-R:Joanne Robbins (UK), Jacqueline Frick (former member, Switzerland), Linda Anderson-Berry (Australia), Haleh Kootval (WMO-PWS), Brian Mills (chair, Canada), Angelika Wirtz (IRDR, Germany), Kwabena Anaman (Ghana). Not pictured:Paul Kovacs (Canada), Jeffrey Lazo (USA), Nanette Lomarda (WMO-WWRP), Eugene Poolman (South Africa), Michael Staudinger (Austria), David Johnston (IRDR, New Zealand)

7. SERA WG Achievements • Development of the societal elements of the WWRP Strategic Plan (2008-09) and contribution to BAMS special issue on Earth System Prediction Initiative (2009-10) • Formal reconstitution of the SERA-WG with additional expertise in social sciences (e.g., economics, psychology, geography), user/decision-making communities (e.g., insurance), and hydrometeorological service providers (2009-present) • Enhanced linkages to other WMO commissions and projects, for example: • JCOMM/CHy Coastal Inundation Forecast Demonstration Project (2010-present) • WMO Forum: Social and Economic Applications and Benefits of Weather, Climate and Water Services (2008-present) • Shanghai World EXPO 2010 Nowcasting Service Demonstration Project (WENS) Science Steering Group (SSG) (2009-11) • Formal working arrangement established between WMO-WWRP and the Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR) programme (supported by the International Council for Science, International Social Science Council, and United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction) (2011-12)

8. SERA WG Achievements • Working group meetings and special side sessions • Inaugural meeting, 12-13 October, 2009, at the ITCP, Trieste, Italy; • Second meeting and joint session with the JWGFVR, 27-29 September, 2010, at Météo France, Toulouse, France; • Special side meeting involving a subset of members held in conjunction with the Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR) programme Scientific Conference, 30-October to 3-November, 2012, Beijing, China; and • Third meeting, 25-30 July 2012, at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in Melbourne, Australia. • Support for new WWRP projects on Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (S2S) project and Polar Prediction Project (PPP) (2011-present) • Implementation plan, science plan, and steering/planning committee contributions • Development of background resources (e.g., annotated S2S bibliography) • Communicating Risk and Uncertainty Workshop (26-27 July, 2012, Melbourne) • SERA member expertise combined with Australasian researchers and practitioners to update and report on current and cutting-edge research across two of the SERA research priorities: understanding and improving the use of weather information in decision making; and understanding and improving the communication of weather forecast uncertainty

9. SERA WG Current and Planned Activities • WWRP Open Science Conference (2013-14) • Co-chair, input and support to User, Application, and Social Science Programme • Contribution to guidance document on Assessing the Socio-Economic Benefits of Meteorological and Hydrological Services (2013-14) • Collaboration with larger project supported by the World Bank, Climate Services Partnership, and WMO Forum: Social and Economic Applications and Benefits of Weather, Climate and Water Services • Foster further development of SERA components for new WWRP projects (2013-15) • Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (S2S) project • Polar Prediction Project (PPP) • High Impact Weather (HIW) project

10. SERA WG Current and Planned Activities • Economic Analysis of Hydro-Meteorological Services in Mozambique (2013-14) • World Bank funded study led by Jeff Lazo to estimate the costs and benefits of a program to improve the capacity of the hydrological and meteorological (hydro-met) services • Important addition to the list of cases for future comparative work (results, methods, capacities, etc.) by SERA-WG as it broadens the range of economies and socio-cultural contexts examined • Retrospective Thorpex TIGGE impact/benefits analysis (2013-14) • Development and implementation of research proposal • Understanding the societal and economic dimensions of weather-related warning systems: A SERA Research Demonstration Project (RDP)(2013-16) • Based on case studies developed through WWRP projects (PPP, S2S, HIW) and collaborations with WMO, members services, and other partners • User perspectives, needs, and use of NHMS R&D, products, and services (2013-) • Systematic evaluations of large users of weather and related risk knowledge/information provided or sourced to NHMS organizations, beginning with insurance

11. SERA WG Current and Planned Activities • SERA Guidance Document • Replaced with a larger project administered and financially supported through the World Bank, Climate Services Partnership, and WMO Forum: Social and Economic Applications and Benefits of Weather, Climate and Water Services • Aims to provide a cutting-edge guidance document on Assessing the Socio-Economic Benefits of Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NH summer 2014) • Scope of the value chain to be considered includes research, development, and technology-transfer steps that are of primary interest to WWRP • Activity has a direct link into support for the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) • Three SERA-WG members and several subject matter expert colleagues on the WMO Forum are leading and/or contributing to chapters • Proponents of WWRP projectsseeking a societal dimension should continue to work through the SERA WG and JSC to request and receive guidance

12. SERA WG Current and Planned Activities • WWRP/Thorpex/WCRP Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project • Input to the revised project implementation plan (final version revised in April 2013) • Joanne Robbins represented SERA-WG at the February 2013 planning group meeting in Exeter • Interest in defining SERA contributions/involvement with 2 S2S thematic subproject areas (extremes, verification) and 1 regional (Africa) subproject area • Draft publication Applications of seasonal to sub-seasonal weather and climate predictions: An annotated bibliography has been updated in support of the project. It will form the basis of a critical analysis of available application research to be undertaken in 2013 and reviewed by SERA members

13. SERA WG Current and Planned Activities • WWRP Polar Prediction Project (PPP) • Final project implementation and science plans contain significant SERA-related elements • Recommended structure for involving SERA expertise is through a parallel committee that focuses on social and economic evaluation aspects with liaison to the main steering group through 1-2 key members • Committee unlikely to be formalized until a trust fund is established and an IPO is launched • Strongly recommended to consider adding a social scientific officer to the IPO or add qualification to the selection criteria (applies to all 3 legacy projects) • Separate yet complementary process will be required to promote and plan a societal pillar within the Year Of Polar Prediction (YOPP) activity

14. SERA WG Current and Planned Activities • Thorpex High Impact Weather (HIW) Prediction Project • Rebecca Morss (NCAR) represented SERA WG at the HIW workshop in March 2013 • Based on reports and feedback from these meetings, and the AMS town hall in January 2013, a strong SERA element is desired by participants with particular foci on extending prediction to impacts and measuring the social and economic benefits of improving forecast information for events on the scale of minutes to weeks • SERA WG is interested in assisting in scoping and developing these elements through involvement in the Task Force and future case studies; could be a major part of a warning demonstration project • Initial proposal to be reviewed by SERA WG in coming weeks

15. SERA WG Current and Planned Activities • Retrospective Thorpex TIGGE impact/benefits analysis (2013-14) • Action item from ICSC-10 • Proposed assessment/evaluation based on two sets of TIGGE objectives: • TIGGE as a resource to facilitate EPS and NWP model comparative R&D, especially among academic institutions and small NMHSs lacking access to large, comparable, multi-model forecast datasets • TIGGE as a resource to extend and/or develop new EPS-based decision support forecast products for underserviced regions/populations

16. SERA WG Current and Planned Activities • Objective 1 Activities • Identify who is using TIGGE, for what purpose, what knowledge has resulted, and how has this spurred additional activity relative to what existed before • Existing indicators and inventories are adequate, however, more could be mined • Bibliometric analysis and survey (4-6 months) • Scopus application to complement existing indicator data collected • Original peer-reivewed articles, layers of citation/reference, author characteristics and affiliations • Targeted survey to elicit input on use and benefit (short and longer term) • Potential tie back to innovation theory

17. SERA WG Current and Planned Activities • Objective 2 Activities • Decision Support Capabilities (1-2 years) • Obtain 3-5 year global disaster loss dataset from MunichRe and/or CRED and isolate hydrometeorological events on a scale commensurate with TIGGE detection (TCs, regional riverine floods, heat and cold waves, strong ML cyclones/winter storms) • Apply Matsueda or similar extreme event index over comparable period of TIGGE data • Evaluate detection success and statistics for important characteristics (e.g., lead time)

18. SERA WG Current and Planned Activities • Objective 2 Activities (cont’d) • Regional, Event and Agency-specific case studies (1-2 years) • Select a sample of recent, well-studied (from an impact/response perspective) events from both developed and developing countries • Assess relative benefits/avoided losses under 3 scenarios: perfect information, TIGGE, reality) • Examine other societal and institutional forces that constrained decision-making and qualify scenario-based evaluation • Use SWFDP case as an agency-specific real-time evaluation and analzye longitudinally in greater detail • *Objective 2 activities would be tied into the HIW project and IRDR Forensic Investigation of Disaster Studies

19. Planned Meetings • Fourth WWRP-SERA WG meeting, Canada (November/December 2013) • WWRP Open Science meeting (coordination with IRDR science symposium?) (2013-14) • Social science training workshop? (tbd)

20. Challenges • Limited capacity (esp. time) relative to expectations • Funding challenges within WMO, NMHSs, home organizations, research councils, etc. (supportive statement from WMO might be helpful) • Coordination within WMO programmes • Membership renewal/replacement (growing bridge experts)