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Watch in slide show mode to observe (modest) animation. comments questions: dan.kahan@yale

Watch in slide show mode to observe (modest) animation. comments questions: dan.kahan@yale.edu papers, etc: www.culturalcognition.net. www.culturalcognition.net. What does the science of science communication have to say about the climate change conflict?. Dan M. Kahan Yale University.

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Watch in slide show mode to observe (modest) animation. comments questions: dan.kahan@yale

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  1. Watch in slide show mode to observe (modest) animation. comments questions: dan.kahan@yale.edu papers, etc: www.culturalcognition.net

  2. www.culturalcognition.net What does the science of science communication have to say about the climate change conflict? Dan M. Kahan Yale University

  3. The Science Communication Problem • 1. What the source of the problem isn’t • 2. What the source of the problem is • 3. What “ ‘isn’t’ & ‘is’ ” imply for climate-change communication • a. Local engagement • b. evidence-based communication: lab models to … field models

  4. The Science Communication Problem • 1. What the source of the problem isn’t: public irrationality thesis (PIT) • 2. What the source of the problem is • 3. What “ ‘isn’t’ & ‘is’ ” imply for climate-change communication • a. Local engagement • b. evidence-based communication: lab models to … field models

  5. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Greater perceived risk (z-score) Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi:10.1038/nclimate1547.

  6. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” PIT prediction: Science Illiteracy & Bounded Rationality Greater High Sci. litearcy/System 2 (“slow”) perceived risk (z-score) Low Sci. litearcy/System 1 (“fast”) Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi:10.1038/nclimate1547.

  7. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Greater Risk PIT prediction PIT prediction actual variance actual variance perceived risk (z-score) Lesser Risk low high low high Science literacy Numeracy U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi:10.1038/nclimate1547.

  8. The Science Communication Problem • 1. What the source of the problem isn’t: public irrationality thesis (PIT) • 2. What the source of the problem is • 3. What “ ‘isn’t’ & ‘is’ ” imply for climate-change communication • a. Local engagement • b. evidence-based communication: lab models to … field models 

  9. The Science Communication Problem • 1. What the source of the problem isn’t: public irrationality thesis (PIT) • 2. What the source of the problem is: motivated reasoning • 3. What “ ‘isn’t’ & ‘is’ ” imply for climate-change communication • a. Local engagement • b. evidence-based communication: lab models to … field models 

  10. Cultural Cognition Worldviews Risk Perception Key Low Risk High Risk Hierarchy Abortion procedure Environment: climate, nuclear Gays military/gay parenting Guns/Gun Control compulsory psychiatric treatment HPV Vaccination Individualism Communitarianism Abortion procedure Environment: climate, nuclear Gays military/gay parenting Guns/Gun Control compulsory psychiatric treatment HPV Vaccination Egalitarianism

  11. Source: Kahan, D.M., Jenkins-Smith, H. & Braman, D. Cultural Cognition of Scientific Consensus. J. Risk Res. 14, 147-74(2011).

  12. Climate Change High Risk (science conclusive) Low Risk (science inconclusive)

  13. Geologic Isolation of Nuclear Wastes High Risk (not safe) Low Risk (safe)

  14. Concealed Carry Laws High Risk (Increase crime) Low Risk (Decrease Crime)

  15. Cultural Cognition Worldviews Risk Perception Key Low Risk High Risk Hierarchy Environment: climate, nuclear Guns/Gun Control Individualism Communitarianism Environment: climate, nuclear Guns/Gun Control Egalitarianism

  16. Featured scientist is a knowledgeable and credible expert on ... Egalitarian Communitarian More Likely to Agree Hierarchical Individualist More Likely to Agree Pct. Point Difference in Likelihood of Selecting Response 60% 40% 20% 0 20% 40% 60% 54% Climate Change 72% 22% Nuclear Power 31% 58% Concealed Carry 61% N = 1,500. Derived from ordered-logit regression analysis, controlling for demographic and political affiliation/ideology variables. Culture variables set 1 SD from mean on culture scales. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence

  17. Source: Kahan, D.M., Jenkins-Smith, H. & Braman, D. Cultural Cognition of Scientific Consensus. J. Risk Res. 14, 147-74(2011).

  18. The Science Communication Problem • 1. What the source of the problem isn’t: public irrationality thesis (PIT) • 2. What the source of the problem is: motivated reasoning • 3. What “ ‘isn’t’ & ‘is’ ” imply for climate-change communication • a. Local engagement • b. evidence-based communication: lab models to … field models 

  19. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Cultural variance conditional on sci. literacy/numeracy? Cultural Variance... Greater Egalitarian Communitarian Low Sci lit/numeracy perceived risk (z-score) High Sci lit/numeracy Hierarchical Individualist Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi:10.1038/nclimate1547.

  20. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” PIT prediction: Culture as heuristic substitute Greater Egalitarian Communitarian Low Sci lit/numeracy perceived risk (z-score) High Sci lit/numeracy Hierarchical Individualist Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi:10.1038/nclimate1547.

  21. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Actual interaction of culture & sci-lit/num... Greater HighSci lit/numeracy EgalComm LowSci/lit numeracy EgalComm Low Sci lit/numeracy perceived risk (z-score) High Sci lit/numeracy LowSci lit/num. HierarcIndivid HighSci lit/numeracy Hierarch Individ Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi:10.1038/nclimate1547.

  22. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Actual interaction of culture & sci-lit/num... Greater HighSci lit/numeracy EgalComm LowSci/lit numeracy EgalComm Low Sci lit/numeracy perceived risk (z-score) High Sci lit/numeracy LowSci lit/num. HierarcIndivid HighSci lit/numeracy Hierarch Individ Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi:10.1038/nclimate1547.

  23. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” POLARIZATION INCREASES as scil-lit/numeracy increases Greater HighSci lit/numeracy EgalComm LowSci/lit numeracy EgalComm Low Sci lit/numeracy perceived risk (z-score) High Sci lit/numeracy LowSci lit/num. HierarcIndivid HighSci lit/numeracy Hierarch Individ Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi:10.1038/nclimate1547.

  24. The Science Communication Problem • 1. What the source of the problem isn’t: public irrationality thesis (PIT) • 2. What the source of the problem is • 3. What “ ‘isn’t’ & ‘is’ ” imply for climate-change communication • a. change places, change teams • b. evidence-based communication: lab models to … field models   : motivated reasoning

  25. The Science Communication Problem • 1. What the source of the problem isn’t: public irrationality thesis (PIT) • 2. What the source of the problem is • 3. What “ ‘isn’t’ & ‘is’ ” imply for climate-change communication • a. change places, change teams • b. evidence-based communication: lab models to … field models   : motivated reasoning

  26. Two Channel Communication Strategy • channel 1: content • Risk • Perception • Information • channel 2: meaning

  27. study_dismiss scale (α = 0.85)

  28. Cultural Cognition Worldviews Risk Perception Key Low Risk High Risk Hierarchy Climate change Individualism Communitarianism Climate change Egalitarianism

  29. Study dismissiveness Dismiss Hierarch Individ z_Study dismiss 2 EgalCommun Credit anti-pollution

  30. Control Condition

  31. Study dismissiveness Dismiss Hierarch Individ z_Study dismiss 2 EgalCommun Credit anti-pollution

  32. Anti-pollution Condition

  33. Geoengineering Condition

  34. study_dismiss scale (α = 0.85)

  35. Two Channel Communication Strategy • channel 1: content • Risk • Perception • Information • channel 2: meaning

  36. Anti-pollution Condition

  37. Study dismissiveness Dismiss Hierarch Individ z_Study dismiss 2 EgalCommun Credit anti-pollution

  38. Study dismissiveness Dismiss Hierarch Individ z_Study dismiss 2 EgalCommun Credit anti-pollution

  39. Geoengineering Condition

  40. Two Channel Communication Strategy • channel 1: content • Risk • Perception • Information • channel 2: meaning

  41. Study dismissiveness Dismiss Hierarch Individ z_Study dismiss 2 EgalCommun Credit anti-pollution

  42. Study dismissiveness Dismiss Hierarch Individ z_Study dismiss 2 EgalCommun Credit anti-pollution

  43. Polarization more polarization z_Study dismiss 2 less polarization anti-pollution

  44. The Science Communication Problem • 1. What the source of the problem isn’t: public irrationality thesis (PIT) • 2. What the source of the problem is • 3. What “ ‘isn’t’ & ‘is’ ” imply for climate-change communication • a. change places, change teams • b. evidence-based communication: lab models to … field models   : motivated reasoning 

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