Thinking Forward: Preparing Our Students for the Future Session I

1. Thinking Forward: Preparing Our Students for the Future Session I Bringing the Best Home: International Best Practices in Education Presentation by Andreas Schleicher, OECD December 15, 2008

2. There is nowhere to hide How the global talent pool has changed

3. A world of change in baseline qualificationsApproximated by percentage of persons with high school or equivalent qualfications in the age groups 55-64, 45-55, 45-44 und 25-34 years (2006) % 1 13 1 27 1. Excluding ISCED 3C short programmes 2. Year of reference 2004 3. Including some ISCED 3C short programmes 3. Year of reference 2003.

4. High school graduation ratesPercentage of graduates to the population at the typical age of graduation %

5. A world of change – college education Access and affordability Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Cost per student Graduate supply Tertiary-type A graduation rate

6. A world of change – college education Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) United States Cost per student Sweden Japan Graduate supply Tertiary-type A graduation rate

7. A world of change – college education Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) United States (2000) United States (1995) Australia Tertiary-type A graduation rate

8. A world of change – college education Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate

9. A world of change – college education Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate

10. A world of change – college education Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate

11. A world of change – college education Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate

12. A world of change – college education Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) United States Sweden Australia Ireland Tertiary-type A graduation rate

13. A world of change – college education Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) United States Tertiary-type A graduation rate

14. A world of change – college education Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) United States Tertiary-type A graduation rate

15. A world of change – college education Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) United States Tertiary-type A graduation rate

16. A world of change – college education Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) United States Tertiary-type A graduation rate

17. A world of change – college education Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) United States Tertiary-type A graduation rate

18. A world of change – college education Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate

19. A world of change – college education • Rising higher education qualifications seem generally not to have led to an “inflation” of the labour-market value of qualifications. • In all but three of the 20 countries with available data, the earnings benefit increased between 1997 and 2003, in Germany, Italy and Hungary by between 20% and 40% • The challenge for the US • Identifying and addressing the factors that are driving the soaring costs of higher education as well as putting a greater spotlight on the learning outcomes so as to raise cost-effectiveness of the sector Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) United States Australia Tertiary-type A graduation rate

20. Moving targetsFuture supply of high school graduates

21. Future supply of high school graduates Future supply of college graduates

22. How the demand for skills has changedEconomy-wide measures of routine and non-routine task input (US) Mean task input as percentiles of the 1960 task distribution (Levy and Murnane)

23. OECD’s PISA assessment of the knowledge and skills of 15-year-olds Coverage of world economy 83% 77% 81% 85% 86% 87%

24. High science performance Average performanceof 15-year-olds in scientific literacy– extrapolate and apply (2006) … 18 countries perform below this line Low science performance

25. Improved GDP from achieving the goal of being first in the world by 2000 Percent addition to GDP 10-year reform 20-year reform 30-year reform Total U.S. K-12 spending Note: *K-12 education expenitures are assumed to be constant at the level attained in 2005. These data show that economic benefits from a 1989 reform that raised the U.S. to the highest levels of test performance would cover the cost of K-12 education by 2015 Source: Eric Hanushek

26. High science performance Average performanceof 15-year-olds in science – extrapolate and apply High average performance Large socio-economic disparities High average performance High social equity Strong socio-economic impact on student performance Socially equitable distribution of learning opportunities Low average performance Large socio-economic disparities Low average performance High social equity Low science performance

27. High science performance Durchschnittliche Schülerleistungen im Bereich Mathematik High average performance Large socio-economic disparities High average performance High social equity Strong socio-economic impact on student performance Socially equitable distribution of learning opportunities Low average performance Large socio-economic disparities Low average performance High social equity Low science performance

28. How to get there Some policy levers that emerge from international comparisons

29. Money matters - but other things do too

30. Countries spend their money differentlyContribution of various factors to upper secondary teacher compensation costsper student as a percentage of GDP per capita (2004) Percentage points

31. High ambitions and universal standards Rigor, focus and coherence Great systems attract great teachers and provide access to best practice and quality professional development

32. International Best Practice The past • Principals who are trained, empowered, accountable and provide instructional leadership • Principals who manage ‘a building’, who have little training and preparation and are accountable but not empowered • Attracting, recruiting and providing excellent training for prospective teachers from the top end of the graduate distribution • Attracting and recruiting teachers from the bottom third of the graduate distribution and offering training which does not relate to real classrooms • Incentives, rules and funding encourage a fair distribution of teaching talent • The best teachers are in the most advantaged communities Human capital

33. International Best Practice The past • Expectations of teachers are clear; consistent quality, strong professional ethic and excellent professional development focused on classroom practice • Seniority and tenure matter more than performance; patchy professional development; wide variation in quality • Teachers and the system expect every child to succeed and intervene preventatively to ensure this • Wide achievement gaps, just beginning to narrow but systemic and professional barriers to transformation remain in place Human capital (cont…)

34. High ambitions Devolved responsibility,the school as the centre of action Accountability and intervention in inverse proportion to success Access to best practice and quality professional development

35. School autonomy, standards-based examinations and science performanceSchool autonomy in selecting teachers for hire PISA score in science

36. Public and private schools % Score point difference Public schools perform better Private schools perform better

37. Strong ambitions Devolvedresponsibility,the school as the centre of action Integrated educational opportunities From prescribed forms of teaching and assessment towards personalised learning Accountability Access to best practice and quality professional development

38. A second chance?Expected hours in non-formal job-related training (2003)This chart shows the expected number of hours in non-formal job-related education and training, over a forty year period, for 25-to-64 year olds. % C5.1a

39. Thank you ! www.oecd.org; www.pisa.oecd.org All national and international publications The complete micro-level database email: pisa@oecd.org Andreas.Schleicher@OECD.org … and remember: Without data, you are just another person with an opinion