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Britain in 2010 : Retrospective Reflections

Britain in 2010 : Retrospective Reflections. Ben R. Martin SPRU – Science and Technology Policy Research, University of Sussex B.Martin@sussex.ac.uk

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Britain in 2010 : Retrospective Reflections

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  1. Britain in 2010:Retrospective Reflections Ben R. Martin SPRU – Science and Technology Policy Research,University of Sussex B.Martin@sussex.ac.uk Invited Presentation at the Policy Studies Institute Workshop on ‘Back to the Future: Assessing Britain in 2010’, held at the Royal Society of Arts, London, 12 May 2010

  2. Introduction • Set Britain in 2010 in wider historical context • Focus more on technology and technological forecasting • Impact and significance? • Conclusions

  3. Historical background • 1950s – origins of (technological) forecasting • US – DoD, RAND, Hudson Institute • France – Gaston Berger –La Prospective • Development of basic tools – e.g. scenarios, Delphi etc. • 1960s – spread to • academic community • emergence of ‘futures’ community • establishment of journals, conferences etc. • other countries • e.g. UK –The World in 1984 (New Scientist, 1964) • companies • e.g. General Electric, Shell (scenarios)

  4. Historical background • 1970s – challenges • The Limits to Growth (1972) • Application of computers and systems modelling • World’s resources running out fast so future growth limited •  Fierce debate (e.g. SPRU critique) • Failure to foresee 1973 oil crisis  crisis of confidence in forecasting • Japan • Large forecasting exercises (e.g. STA 30-year forecasts) • Emphasis on process and wide-scale involvement (cf. earlier reliance on ‘experts’) –‘5 Cs’ process benefits • Use by both government and industry • Beginnings of shift from forecasting to ‘foresight’

  5. The UK context • 1983 – ACARD & Cabinet Office • How to identify exploitable areas of science? • SPRU study –‘Project Foresight’ • Survey of 4 countries – F, G, J and US • Quite extensive use of forecasting in private sector & in Japan • Shift from forecasting to ‘foresight’ • Learn from international experiences & set up pilot exercise in UK • But political circumstances not right!  Little immediate impact • Late 1980s – upsurge of interest in forecasting in UK • Cabinet Office & ACOST – technology matrices, Committee on Emerging Technologies • CEST – better/faster exploitation of S&T by companies • DTI – Forward Looks, IT Futures Study • DoE – 1986 Appraisal • Companies – various prospective analyses

  6. Britain in 2010 • Approach • “problem-oriented … empirical and pragmatic” • “rely mainly on information already available” • Focus on S&T component • Drew on articles in newspapers, popular sc journals etc. • Developments in new technologies – e.g. IT, biotech • General issues – e.g. convergence between technologies, rapid pace of change, constraints on tech exploitation • Effects of S&T on sectors (e.g. agric, mfg, households) • Implications • Successful exploitation of tech’y associated with effective R&D • Specialist skills crucial • Gov’t regulation & intervention often vital (e.g. telecomms) • Predictions stand up reasonably well 20 years on!

  7. Impact and significance • Relatively few citations (6 in WoS, 16 in GS) • But part of resurgence of interest in forecasting in UK • Reflected the shift from forecasting to foresight • “what is involved is not predicting a future that is fixed, but making possible better-informed choices so that the future can be made better than it would have been otherwise” • Picked up in 1993 SPRU Report to OST, which recommended UK establish a Foresight Programme • Helped make wider political climate more receptive to benefits of forecasting • Hence contributed to OST & Waldegrave decision to launch Technology Foresight Programme in 1993

  8. Conclusions • Forecasting or ‘foresight’ now an established tool in government and industry • Britain in 2010 • part of renewed interest in forecasting in early ’90s • reflected fundamental shift from forecasting to ‘foresight’ • helped prepare ground for OST launch of TFP • Impact of research on policy? Need • ‘market research’ to identify opportunity (Carpe diem) • clear ‘demand-pull’ as well as ‘science-push’ • marketing, even missionary work to articulate demand • adequate ‘absorptive capacity’ in host • ‘product champion’ • perseverance and a thick skin! • Cf. literature on innovation and entrepreneurs

  9. Reference • B.R. Martin, ‘Foresight in science and technology: on the origins and importance of terminology’, Special Issue of Technological Forecasting and Social Change on ‘Strategic Foresight’, edited by Joseph Coates, Michel Godet and Philippe Durance (forthcoming)

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