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FORECASTING AUSTRALIA’S TOURISM FUTURE

FORECASTING AUSTRALIA’S TOURISM FUTURE. SATIC Tourism Conference By Dr Leo Jago Chief Economist & GM 29 May 2014. Presentation Overview. Tourism – the state of play Tourism – forecasts Megatrends (CSIRO Futures) Summary of key tourism drivers. Global Tourism Statistics (UNWTO).

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FORECASTING AUSTRALIA’S TOURISM FUTURE

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  1. FORECASTING AUSTRALIA’S TOURISM FUTURE SATIC Tourism Conference ByDr Leo Jago Chief Economist & GM 29 May 2014

  2. Presentation Overview • Tourism – the state of play • Tourism – forecasts • Megatrends (CSIRO Futures) • Summary of key tourism drivers

  3. Global Tourism Statistics (UNWTO) • International tourism arrivals in 2013 : 1.1 billion • Annual growth of 4% expected to continue • Predicted arrivals for 2030 of 1.8 billion • Tourism export earnings in 2012 : USD 1.3 trillion • Accounted for 9% global GDP in 2012 • Generated 9% of total employment in 2012

  4. Tourism’s Economic Significance (2012-13)

  5. Australian Tourism Figures (YE Dec 2013)

  6. Inbound Versus Outbound Visitors

  7. South Australian Tourism Figures (YE Dec 2013) * Excludes pre-paid expenses

  8. Visitor Nights in South Australia

  9. Visitor Spend in South Australia

  10. International Arrivals to Australia in 2013

  11. Source of International Visitors to South Australia

  12. Source of International Visitors

  13. International Visitor Activities

  14. International Visitor Dispersal Nights outside capital cities, GC & TNQ YE December 2013

  15. Source of Interstate Visitors to South Australia

  16. Purpose of Visiting South Australia (All Visitors)

  17. Increasing Visitors to South Australia from UK, US & Europe • 53% could name a location in SA unprompted • Adelaide 49% • Kangaroo Island 10% • Barossa 5% • Respondents believed SA: • Has unique attractions • Just seems too far away • Is vast and empty compared to other places in Australia

  18. Main Reason for not Selecting South Australia in Planning the Trip • Not enough time in trip to include • Too expensive • Other destinations more appealing • Plan to visit in the future

  19. China Forecast to Remain Australia’s Top Expenditure Market

  20. Key Influences on Chinese Visitor Satisfaction • Attractions, especially nature based • Value for money • Good shopping • Good quality food, Western and Chinese • Chinese language services Source: Tourism Research Australia’s: Chinese Visitor Satisfaction Research January 2014

  21. South Australia has what China Wants • World class beauty and natural environments • A safe and secure destination • Good food, wine, local cuisine and produce • Friendly and open citizens, hospitality • Native or cultural heritage • Kangaroo Island, whale/dolphin watching Source: Tourism Australia’s: Understanding the Chinese Consumer June 2013

  22. Tools to Help You www.tra.gov.au Asia Focus

  23. Mega-trends Impacting Tourism Over Next 20 Years(Prepared by CSIRO Futures for Queensland)

  24. 1. The Orient Express • The generation of wealth is moving east

  25. 1. The Orient Express • Over 1 billion people in Asia will transition out of poverty into the middle income bracket in coming decades • China will dominate this trend • Chinese tourists prefer historical & cultural sites rather than just natural scenery • Like to incorporate visits to museum, art shows or watch sport during holiday • Countries throughout Asia are investing heavily in tourism so there is much competition

  26. 2. A Natural Advantage • Impact of climate change • Australia has world class natural assets • Nature is still Australia’s drawcard with tourists • Increased urbanisation is likely to increase the desire for nature

  27. 3. Great Expectations • Moving upwards through Maslow’s Hierarchy • As incomes rise, people move from consuming materials to consuming experiences • An increasing desire for authentic experiences • The tourist doesn’t want to be a tourist • VFR is important especially for domestic tourism & forecast to rise

  28. 4. Bolts From The Blue • Tourism is highly sensitive to extreme events • Climate change brings more extreme weather events • Increased human mobility is elevating the risk of infectious diseases

  29. 4. Bolts From The Blue • Increased uncertainty increases the popularity of domestic holidays • Australia is a relatively safe tourist destination • Australia’s safety ranked more highly by past visitors

  30. 5. Digital Whispers • Internet usage continues to grow • Increased internet usage on smartphones • IT will continue to change how tourists access and use information • The changing role of the travel agent • Greater information flows between travellers

  31. 5. Digital Whispers • The popularity of user-generated content in travel • More bookings are made online • Virtual experiences are not replacing actual experiences yet • A virtual experience may increase the intention to visit • Despite IT, there is the expectation for face-to-face interaction • For some there is too much IT and people want to disconnect

  32. 6. On The Move • Trade leads to travel • Global trade to increase by nearly 75% by 2025 • Strong trading ties with Asia • Growth in multi-purpose trips • Education exports (22% of students in 2009) • Rise of medical tourism

  33. 6. On The Move • Aviation access is critical • Air ticket prices also important • The world’s citizens are becoming more mobile • High speed rail more popular • Cruise ships on the rise

  34. 7. The Lucky Country • Australia rode the GFC better than most • Overseas holidays getting cheaper • Outbound tourism for Australians is on the rise • Australian tourism seen to be high cost globally • Lack of investment in domestic tourism product could hold back local potential • Ageing population means Baby Boomers form a key market

  35. Defining Characteristics Arising From Merging of the Megatrends • Safe and secure • Clean • Green • Friendly and authentic • Value South Australia performs well on most of these dimensions

  36. Domestic Tourism – Key Drivers • Safety and security • Value for money • Picturesque natural environments • Key attractions • Natural landmarks • Heritage sites • Historical landmarks • Food and wine experiences • Especially in natural settings

  37. Domestic Tourism Issues • Outbound tourism growing strongly • Aspirational • Broader product range • Better value • Lack of awareness of Australian product • Domestic travel helps unite families • Offering must suit all family members • VFR continues to grow • Weekend breaks continue to be popular • Challenge is to move them outside peak periods

  38. South Australia • Great natural environments • Wide range of natural and heritage attractions • Excellent food and wine • Good driving location BUT • Low levels of awareness • Limited access

  39. www.tra.gov.au Go to for accessible research for industry and government.

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