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Population Estimation and Wildlife survival analysis

Population Estimation and Wildlife survival analysis. Matthew Jobrack. Capture-Recapture Method. Closed population of unknown size N M 1 animals captured, marked and released back into population Some time later, M 2 animals captured Let M be the number captured during both periods

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Population Estimation and Wildlife survival analysis

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  1. Population Estimation and Wildlife survival analysis Matthew Jobrack

  2. Capture-Recapture Method • Closed population of unknown size N • M1 animals captured, marked and released back into population • Some time later, M2 animals captured • Let M be the number captured during both periods • Estimate for N is (M1M2)/M

  3. Variations/Different Models • More capture periods • Time/behavioral/heterogeneity effects • Open populations • Removal models Question: How to add covariates which might effect the capture/survival probability of an animal (e.g. size).

  4. Survival Model Date: t 1 t2 t3 t4 Survival Parameters: Cohort: 1 f1 f2 f3 2 f2’ f3’ 3 f3’’ Capture Parameters: Cohort: 1 p2 p3 p4 2 p3’ p4’ 3 p4’’

  5. Adding Covariates Write the survival (or capture) probabilities as logistic functions; for instance Problem: This works fine if the covariate is fixed for a certain animal, but what if x changes from time period to time period?

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