small arms survey 2008: risk and resilience

1. Small Arms Proliferation and the Prospects for Peace and Development in Sudan a lecture for the “Global Trends and Diversity” class Organized by the Graduate Institute for International and Development Studies Geneva, 29 September 2009 small arms survey 2008: risk and resilience Eric G Berman, Small Arms Survey

2. Small Arms Survey: aims and work • An independent research institute based in Geneva with a mandate to investigate all aspects of small arms and armed violence issues • Provide reliable and impartial policy-relevant analysis • Work closely with a global network of partners • Support principally comes from governments: • □ Australia □ Belgium □ Canada • □ Denmark □ Finland □ Germany • □ Netherlands □ Norway □ Spain • □ Sweden □ Switzerland □ United Kingdom small arms survey 2008: risk and resilience Geneva, 29 September 2009

3. The Human Security Baseline Assessment (HSBA): five themes UN Headquarters, 14 July 2008 ■International, regional, domestic transfers ■Domestic stockpiles and inventories ■Command and control of armed groups ■Local security arrangements and demand ■Mortality, morbidity and victimization Geneva, 29 September 2009 small arms survey 2008: risk and resilience

4. Today’s Talk • ■ Small Arms and Armed Violence: an Overview • □ what are small arms and light weapons? • □ a global snapshot of producers, transfers, and holdings • □ direct effects: death and injury • □ indirect effects and costs • □ tackling the problem: the UN Programme of Action (PoA) • ■ Proliferation in Sudan and the Prospects • for Peace and Development • □ who has small arms and light weapons in Sudan? • □ what do they possess? • □how did they acquire them? • □ what can be done about it? Geneva, 29 September 2009

5. Light weapons: heavy machine guns, grenade and rocket launchers, recoilless rifles/guns, anti-tank guided weapons, man-portable air-defence systems, anti-material rifles Source: UN Panel of Governmental Experts, 1997 (A/52/298) What are small arms and light weapons? Small arms: handguns, rifles and carbines, sub-machine guns, assault rifles, light machine guns Geneva, 29 September 2009

6. Craft production ■ Explosively formed projectiles ■ Mortars ■Grenade launchers ■Rockets ■Handguns Geneva, 29 September 2009

7. Top exporters and importers ■ Top exporters of small arms: ■ United States ■ Austria ■ Belgium ■ Brazil ■ Germany ■ Italy ■ China ■ Russian Federation ■ Top importers of small arms: ■ United States ■ Australia ■ Canada ■ Cyprus ■ Egypt ■ France ■ Germany ■ Japan ■ Nether- ■ Saudi Arabia ■ South Korea lands small arms survey 2008: risk and resilience Geneva, 29 September 2009

8. Military surpluses • 200 million military small arms • 76 million are surplus • Countries as likely to export unwanted equipment as to destroy it Geneva, 29 September 2009

9. The 2009 Transparency Barometer Most transparent ■ Switzerland ■ United Kingdom ■ Germany ■ Norway ■ Netherlands, Serbia, United States Least transparent ■ Iran, North Korea ■ South Africa ■ Russian Federation ■ Israel small arms survey 2008: risk and resilience Geneva, 29 September 2009

10. Global distribution: a largely civilian arsenal • At least 875 million weapons held worldwide • Who has the guns: • More than two-thirds are in civilian hands • About one-quarter with the armed forces • Relatively very few with the police • …and less than one per cent with armed groups Geneva, 29 September 2009

11. Small arms proliferation: guided light weapons ■ More than 40 armed groups reported to possess, or have possessed, man- portable air-defense systems (MANPADS) ■ More than a dozen armed groups reported to possess, or have possessed, anti-tank guided weapons (ATGWs) ■ Groups active over the past decade in 30+ territories and countries Geneva, 29 September 2009

12. A trafficker’s perspective • Blank end-user certificates can be purchased • Small arms ammunition is plentiful and cheap • Transport can be arranged • Potential profits are attractive, while risks remain slight Geneva, 29 September 2009

13. Transfer diversion Geneva, 29 September 2009

14. Small arms proliferation ■ state support to pro-government militias ■ recirculation of weapons holdings ■ poorly planned disarmament and arms recovery initiatives ■ seizure and loss of state stockpiles ■ ill-discipline among state security forces Geneva, 29 September 2009

15. Direct and Indirect Effects Geneva, 29 September 2009

16. Armed violence: main findings (global) ■ Armed violence claims at least 740,000 lives per year ■ The vast majority – at least 490,000 – of these deaths occur in non-conflict settings ■ The annual economic cost of armed violence outside of war zones is at least USD 95 billion Geneva, 29 September 2009

17. Country Date Location Loss of Life Sudan 29 September 1998 Khartoum 0 DRC 14 April 2000 Kinshasa 101 Guinea 3 March 2001 Conakry 10 Sierra Leone 5 January 2002 Tongo Field 6 Nigeria 27 January 2002 Lagos 1,500+ Mozambique 24 October 2002 Beira ? Angola 16 July 2003 Menongue 6 Nigeria 23 February 2005 Kaduna 4 Sudan 23 February 2005 Juba 80 Côte d’Ivoire 4 March 2005 Abidjan 2 DRC 25 November 2005 Walikale, Nord-Kivu 6 Kenya 28 January 2006 Nairobi 0 Sudan 19 May 2006 Juba 2 Mozambique January 2007 Malhuxine 0 Mozambique 22 March 2007 Malhuxine 104+ Sudan 08 April 2007 Khartoum 0 DRC 17 June 2007 Mbandaka 3 Source: Based on Wilkinson, 2006, pp. 248-53; and Wilkinson, forthcoming. Mozambique 23 June 2007 Malhuxine 5 Explosions at arms depots (in Africa) Geneva, 29 September 2009

18. The UN Small Arms Programme of Action (PoA) ■ Political agreement concluded July 2001 (A/CONF.192/15) ■Initiative to counter …“illicit” trafficking of small arms … “in all its aspects” ■Three levels of action: (1) national; (2) (sub-)regional; (3) global ■Frequent reporting Geneva, 29 September 2009

19. The UN and the Small Arms Programme of Action (PoA) ■ Groups of Governmental Experts (GGEs): (e.g. Marking and Tracing; Brokering; Surplus Ammunition) ■ Open-Ended Working Group (OEWG) on Arms Trade Treaty ■ Biennial Meetings of States (BMSes): (2003; 2005; 2008; 2010) ■ Informal Meeting on Transfer Control Principles (2007) ■ Review Conferences (2006 and 2012) Geneva, 29 September 2009

20. Third Biennial Meeting of States Three Themes: International cooperation, assistance & national capacity-building Illicit brokering Stockpile management & surplus disposal Geneva, 29 September 2009

21. Third Biennial Meeting of States ■ Issues for future consideration include: □ producers □ recipients □ supply □ demand □ ammunition □ civilian possession (24 proposals in all) ■ Outcome Document (Consensus-2) Geneva, 29 September 2009

22. Implementation of the PoA: a snapshot from Central and South Asia Geneva, 29 September 2009

23. Sudan: an overview ■ Largest country in Africa (2.5m km2) ■ Large, heterogeneous population □ 35+ million people □ 500+ ethnicities/sub-groups □ 100+ languages □ Arab/non-Arab divide ■Unstable neighbourhood (9 countries sharing borders) Geneva, 29 September 2009

24. Sudan’s Ethnic (Sub-)Groups (Darfur Map courtesy Human Rights Watch) Geneva, 29 September 2009

25. Peace Processes • ■ Comprehensive Peace Agreement • (January 2005) • ■ Darfur Peace Agreement (May 2006) • ■Eastern Sudan Peace Agreement • (October 2006) • ■All three are fragile or broken Geneva, 29 September 2009

26. Arms Restrictions and Investigative Initiatives Peace Agreements ■ The CPA (January 2005) ■ The DPA (May 2006) ■ The ESPA (October 2006) United Nations ■ Resolution 1556 (July 2004) ■ Resolution 1591 (March 2005) European Union ■Council Decision 94/165/CFSP (1994) ■Council Common Position 2004/31/CFSP (2004) Geneva, 29 September 2009

27. Sudanese Armed Forces and Armed Groups Based in Sudan Government of National Unity (GNU) Forces ▪ The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF): Army, Navy, Air Force • ▪ Various other state services: Police, Prison, Wildlife, Intelligence, Customs • ▪ The Popular Defense Forces (PDF) Government of South Sudan (GoSS) Forces ▪ Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) ▪Various other state services: Police, Prison, Wildlife, Intelligence, Customs • Other Armed Groups • ▪ Armed groups based in the west (e.g. JEM, SLA, ‘Janjaweed’) • ▪ Armed groups based in the east (e.g. Free Lions, Beja Congress) • ▪ Armed groups based in the south (e.g. ‘White Army’, rump-SSDF, • pastoralist groups) Geneva, 29 September 2009

28. Non-Sudanese Armed Forces and Armed Groups Based in Sudan State Forces/Forces Comprised of State Forces • ▪ The African Union/United Nations Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID) • ▪ The United Nations Mission in the Sudan (UNMIS) • ▪ The Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF) Non-State Groups ▪ Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) ▪Chadian Rebels • ▪ Ambororo Geneva, 29 September 2009

29. Source: HSBA IB6 April 2007 Arms Holdings: an overview Geneva, 29 September 2009

30. Types of Small Arms and Light Weapons in Circulation (highlights) Small Arms • ▪ Assault rifles (including both 7.62 x 39/7.62 x 51 mm varieties) • ▪ Light and medium machine guns Light Weapons ▪ Heavy machine guns ▪ Recoilless rifles ▪ Mortars ▪Rocket-propelled grenade launchers ▪ Man-portable Air-Defence Systems (MANPADS) • Light Vehicle-Based Artillery Systems • ▪ Multiple-launch rocket systems Geneva, 29 September 2009

31. Arms Proliferation: the causes Planned ▪ Local production ▪State-to-state transfers ▪State-to-non-state transfers (“Proxy Wars”) ▪Disarmament/Arms recovery initiatives ▪“Ant trade” • Unplanned • ▪ Corruption • ▪ Seizure (state security forces, pastoralist and • armed groups, and peacekeeping forces) • ▪ Disarmament/Arms recovery initiatives Geneva, 29 September 2009

32. Arms Proliferation: local production (mostly unverified) The Military Industrial Corporation (MIC) ▪ Alshagara Industrial Complex (est. 1959) ▪ Yarmouk Industrial Complex (est. 1994) ▪ Alzargaa Engineering Complex (est. 1999) ▪Elshaheed Ibrahim Shamseldeen Complex (est. 2002) ▪Safaat Aviation Complex (est. 2005) source: MIC • Other Facilities Mentioned • ▪ GIAD Industrial Complex • ▪ Sudan Technical Center • Foreign Assistance/Machinery • ▪ Pakistan (technical know-how) (direct) • ▪ Germany and Russia (machine tools) (indirect) Geneva, 29 September 2009

33. Arms Proliferation: state-to-state transfers (to Khartoum) Based on customs data (2001-2006) according to Khartoum* ▪ China (mostly military firearms) USD 35.0 million* ▪Iran (mostly military firearms) USD 17.2 million ▪Egypt (mostly pistols and revolvers [p&r]) USD 0.8 million ▪United Arab Emirates (mostly shotguns) USD 0.3 million ▪Italy (mostly shotgun cartridges) USD 0.3 million ▪Saudi Arabia (mostly pistols and revolvers) USD 0.2 million ▪UK (mostly p&r parts/accessories [p/a]) USD 0.2 million ▪Russian Federation (mostly military firearms) USD 0.2 million ▪Germany (mostly shotgun and rifle p/a) USD 0.2 million ▪Turkey (mostly shotguns) USD 0.1 million ▪Kuwait (mostly p&r parts/accessories) USD 0.1 million (Note: USD, 100,000 minimum) Geneva, 29 September 2009

34. Arms Proliferation: state-to-non-state transfers (recipients) Recorded and Suspected ▪ Chad (Darfur rebel groups) • ▪ Eritrea (Darfur rebel groups) • ▪ Ethiopia (SPLA) • ▪ Libya (Darfur rebel groups) • ▪Sudan (“Janjaweed”, SSDF, LRA) ▪Uganda (SPLA) ▪ Ukraine/Kenya (SPLA) Geneva, 29 September 2009

35. Arms Proliferation: non-state-to- non-state transfers (recipients) Recorded and Suspected … … by Design … ▪ SPLA (SLA, Eastern Front) ▪ Chadian civilians (SLA) … and Involuntarily ▪ SLA (JEM) ▪ JEM (SLA) ▪ FUC (SLA – via N’Djamena) ▪ Chadian civilians (SLA) Geneva, 29 September 2009

36. Arms Proliferation: corruption and seizure ▪ Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) ▪ GoS-supported armed groups ▪Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) ▪UPDF ▪AU Peacekeepers ▪UN Peacekeepers ▪ Pastoralist groups • ▪ Civilians Geneva, 29 September 2009

37. Seizure and Loss of State Stockpiles: the results in pictures Photos Courtesy Mine Advisory Group Geneva, 29 September 2009

38. Arms Proliferation: disarmament and arms recovery initiatives SPLA disarmament effort in Jonglei (2005-06) ▪3,000+ weapons collected by SPLA (1,600 people killed) ▪2,000+ weapons collected with UN support (0 people killed) • SPLA disarmament initiative in 2008 • ▪ perhaps 20,000+ weapons collected • (sporadic reports of violence, some fatalities) • No weapons reportedly destroyed Geneva, 29 September 2009 Geneva, 29 September 2009

39. What can be done? ■ Strengthen the Expert Panel on Sudan (res. 1591) ■ Expand the mandate and increase resources of UN missions ■ Reform and professionalize the SPLA ■ Provide guidance and oversight for all civilian arms recovery initiatives ■ Support stockpile management, surplus destruction and security sector reform in neighboring countries Geneva, 29 September 2009

40. Questions? www.smallarmssurvey.org/Sudan