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Explore the development of decision support tools to accurately anticipate and meet humanitarian needs during catastrophic events. Learn from past examples like Hurricane Katrina and the Pakistan/Kashmir earthquake and discover the implications for humanitarian assistance decision support systems.
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A First Step in Decision Support Tools for Humanitarian Assistance during Catastrophic Disasters: Modeling Hazard Generated Needs John R. Harrald Frank Fiedrich Theresa I. Jefferson Clinton Mexted-Freeman Sebnem Sener
Catastrophic Preparedness Catastrophic events exceed our ability to • accurately anticipate hazard generated humanitarian needs, • to develop the capacity and capability to meet these needs, • to deploy adequate resources to minimize human suffering Recent Examples • The US response to Hurricane Katrina (2005) • The Pakistan/Kashmir earthquake (2005), • the Andaman Nicobar (Aceh) earthquake and tsunami (2004) New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophic Preparedness Project funded by FEMA, Project Team: University of Illinois Mid American Earthquake Center George Washington University Institute for Crisis Disaster and Risk Management IEM, Inc
Hazard-Response Generated Needs • Examples: • Minimizing impact to the population • Care for the injured and ill • Processing fatalities • Hazard-related welfare needs • Protection against continuing threat • Maintaining community order • Promoting optimal recovery Examples: Achieving/maintaining situational awareness Information processing Effective decision-making Mobilizing & utilizing resources Coordinating actions across stovepipes Communication-response & public Political and bureaucratic issues
Modeling and Decision Support Transition from “doing the best we can with what we have” “being prepared to do what is needed” • Improved methods and models are required • Methods should be based on pre-event scenario estimates, combined with pre-event capabilities assessments, allowing the development of scenario driven catastrophic planning • HAZUS-MH • Multi-attribute model (Harrald) funded by American Red Cross • Extended in projects funded by • the National Science Foundation • conducted in partnership with the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) • used as a primary source for earthquake mass care preparedness planning in the San Francisco Bay Area • No adequate models for hazard generated needs such as the required capacity for feeding and mass care commodities as well as medical requirements
Implications For Humanitarian Assistance Decision Support Systems Figure 2
The New Madrid Seismic Zone Project The project objective is to bridge the gap between loss estimation modeling & preparedness and response decision making which is one of the firsts in this area. Figure 3