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Earth-Affecting Solar Causes Observatory (EASCO): A Heliophysics Mission at Sun-Earth L5

11. Assessing the Contribution of Heliospheric Imaging, IPS and other remote sensing observations in Improving Space Weather Prediction Bernie Jackson, Simon Plunkett, & Doug Biesecke r Scheduled Times, Ilima 14:00 – 15:15, 15:45 – 17:00

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Earth-Affecting Solar Causes Observatory (EASCO): A Heliophysics Mission at Sun-Earth L5

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  1. 11. Assessing the Contribution of Heliospheric Imaging, IPS and other remote sensing observations in Improving Space Weather Prediction Bernie Jackson, Simon Plunkett, & Doug Biesecker Scheduled Times, Ilima 14:00 – 15:15, 15:45 – 17:00 At: ftp://cass185.ucsd.edu/Presentations/2012_SHINE/Session_11 Instruments: Space-Based (LASCO, SECCHI, SMEI) Ground-Based: Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) In this session, we will discuss the results of coronal and heliospheric imaging in order to assess the improvements in space weather forecasting brought about by heliospheric and multi-viewpoint imaging. We will contrast Earth-based and non-Earth-based imaging to identify the areas where open issues remain and significant improvements can be made. Tentative Speaker Schedule (Attempt to present using fewer than 10 slides over half of the time): 14:00 - 14:20 Nat Gopalswamy, “EASCO, the L5 (L4) NASA Mission concept, and its coronal and heliospheric imaging (and other) use for forecasting" 14:20 – 14:40 Doug Biesecker, "Why a Sun-Earth Coronagraph is Best" 14:40 – 15:00 Angelos Vourlidas, “NRL CME and Co-rotating Structure Modeling and its use in Forecasting” 15:00 – 15:15 Bernard Jackson, “Inner Heliosphere Global Solar Wind Structure Forecasts using Ground-Based Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) Measurements” Break 15:45 – 16:00 Peter MacNeice / Aleksandre Tatakishvili, “Heliospheric Modeling at the CCMC and possible ways these modeling efforts can be improved” 16:00 – 16:10 Curt de Koning, “Polarimetric localization: A tool for calculating the CME speed and direction of propagation in near-real time” 16:10 – 16:20 Esmeralda Romero, “Report about MEXART and plans for its use as a dedicated IPS system” 16:20 – 16:30 Hui Tian, “CME observations using  spectroscopy and polarimetry“ 16:30 – 16:40 Neel Savani, “The influence of CME momentum onto the Earth's Magnetosphere” 16:40 – 16:50 Ying Lui, "Sun-to-Earth Propagation of CMEs and Connection with In Situ Signatures"

  2. Earth-Affecting Solar Causes Observatory (EASCO):A Heliophysics Mission at Sun-Earth L5 Nat Gopalswamy NASA Goddard Space Flight Center EASCO to be Located here http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011SPIE.8148E..30G

  3. SUN Nat Gopalswamy Earth-Affecting Solar Causes Observatory (EASCO):A Heliophysics Mission at Sun-Earth L5 CIRs can be observed ~4 days ahead of earth arrival Earthward CMEs can be measured without projection effects SUN CIR Earth View Halo CME L5 View Limb CME 2009 October

  4. Spacecraft Assembly & Launch Config. EASCO Total payload mass 138 kg Electric Propulsion key. SMART-1, DAWN, Hayabusa, >100 commercial

  5. Doug Biesecker NOAA/SWPC Why a Sun-Earth line Coronagraph is Best • Use classic Full Halo, Partial Halo, Limb morphology to determine Earth impact • Need secondary observations to resolve near side - far side ambiguity • X-ray flare, X-ray/EUV image, H-alpha image • Classic cone model can be used to derive CME parameters needed to drive WSA-Enlil • Need a constraint on CME width • Right now, more than one view is required, but there is hope • CME’s seen from the side have longitude ambiguity at best, and are unresolved at worst • Don’t know if Earth will get hit by the CME • Will polarization data resolve this? • Is there a preferred angular separation?

  6. Assessing Predictions of CME Time-of-Arrival and 1 AU Speed to Observations Angelos Vourlidas Naval Research Laboratory CIR Observations and Predictions Vourlidas- SHINE 2012 6

  7. Imaging CIRs with HI2: The 2008 January 31 CI Angelos Vourlidas Study the Evolution of CIRs in 3D Wood et al 2011 HI2-A HI2-B 3D CIR model Synthetic HI2-B image Synthetic HI2-A image Vourlidas- SHINE 2012 7

  8. Bernard Jackson STELab Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) Heliospheric Analyses IPS line-of-sight response 3,432 m2 STELab IPS array in Toyokawa, Japan STELab IPS array systems

  9. Bernard Jackson UCSD “Real-Time” Forecast UCSD Forecast Webpage  Aftcast Velocity MacNeice and Taktakishvili June 27 14 UT Heliospheric Modeling at the CCMC and possible ways these modeling efforts can be improved CCMC “Real-Time” Forecast  July 14 0 UT

  10. Report about MEXART and plans for its use as a dedicated IPS system Esmeralda Romero MEXART Institute of Geophysics UNAM

  11. 11. Assessing the Contribution of Heliospheric Imaging, IPS and other remote sensing observations in Improving Space Weather Prediction B. Jackson, S. Plunkett, & D. Biesecker Curt de Koning, “Polarimetric localization: A tool for calculating the CME speed and direction of propagation in near-real time” Neel Savani, “The influence of CME momentum onto the Earth's Magnetosphere” Hui Tian, “CME observations using  spectroscopy and polarimetry“ Ying Lui, "Sun-to-Earth Propagation of CMEs and Connection with In Situ Signatures" At: ftp://cass185.ucsd.edu/Presentations/2012_SHINE/Session_11

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