California Public Utilities Commission Workshop on Load Forecasting and Energy Efficiency

1. Demand Analysis Working Group (DAWG) Overview and Background:Progress on Integrating Energy Efficiency into Demand Forecasting California Public Utilities Commission Workshop on Load Forecasting and Energy Efficiency Chris Ann Dickerson, PhD DAWG Project Manager CAD Consulting Aspen Environmental Group For the California Energy Commission June 26, 2012

2. DAWG Mission • First-of-its-kind stakeholder group initiated by the California Energy Commission (Energy Commission) in 2008 to provide a forum for sharing information pertinent to electricity and natural gas demand forecasting in California.  • The Energy Commission’s Electricity Supply Analysis Division sponsors and manages the DAWG • Special focus on methods and approaches for including energy efficiency — the first resource in the state’s energy procurement loading order — in demand forecasts and energy procurement decisions.

3. DAWG Proceedings • Energy Commission’s (CEC) California Energy Demand Forecast (CED) and Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR) • California Public Utilities Commission’s (CPUC) Long Term Procurement Planning (LTPP) and Energy Efficiency Proceedings • California Independent System Operator (CAISO) proceedings such as Summer Assessment

4. DAWG Goals • Break Down “Silos” • Provide a forum for interaction between functional groups within and between organizations on topics related to demand forecasting, energy efficiency and energy procurement, recognizing that in many cases these activities operate in separate arenas within the member organizations • Promote Transparency in Demand Forecasts Understand differences in technique, assumptions, data, modeling approach so that these can be explained to the Energy Commission in the IEPR proceeding, and be useful for other regulatory proceedings such as CPUC’s LTPP

5. DAWG Working Group Membership STEERING COMMITTEE • Energy Commission Staff • Demand Forecasting • Energy Efficiency • CPUC Staff • Energy Efficiency Planning • Energy Efficiency EM&V • Gen. Procurement • Dept. • CAISO staff MEMBERS • IOUs • Forecasting • Energy Efficiency • POUs • California ARB • US DOE/LBNL • NRDC • TURN • Academic – Cal, Stanford • Approx. 130 individual members; 20 organizations

6. DAWG Topic Areas/Structure Demand Forecasting Subgroup (“Pup”) • Inputs to and development of demand forecasts • Modeling assumptions and techniques used to produce the forecasts • Approaches for ensuring transparency in demand forecasts • Uses for demand forecast results Energy Efficiency Savings, Goals, Potential Subgroup (“Pup”) • Use of reported energy efficiency results in demand forecasts • Integration of energy efficiency potential analysis and goalsetting with demand forecasts (consistency between assumptions, data, etc.)

7. DAWG Background • CPUC LTPP Biennial process, follows Energy Commission’s IEPR, established system 2004 • 2006 CPUC directs IOUS to consider demand forecasting issues in the CEC’s IEPR rather than LTPP (R. 04-04-003)– “Ups the game” for CEC’s demand forecast and IOU interest in it. • 2006 LTPP Initial issue identification – attempt to combine baseline demand forecast with energy efficiency program impacts -- how much energy efficiency (committed, uncommitted) is embedded in the demand forecast? • 2007 IEPR – CEC proposed a public process to better delineate energy efficiency savings assumptions included in the forecast.

8. DAWG Background • 2008 (R. 08-02-007) CPUC directs IOUs to participate in Working Group, noting that the Energy Commission’s demand forecast is used as a critical input for arenas including CPUC’s LTPP and Energy Efficiency proceedings and CARB’s AB32 GHG proceedings • The Working Group was initially called the “Demand Forecasting Energy Efficiency Quantification Project (DFEEQP)” -- name changed to DAWG in 2009

9. DAWG Selected Accomplishments by DAWG Members with input from DAWG • Incremental-Uncommitted Energy Efficiency Reports by Energy Commission – for 2009 IEPR and 2011 IEPR • Better coordination between Energy Commission and utility demand forecasts – use same inputs and modeling approach where possible, identify differences in approach and data so that they can be explained (IOUs and POUs) – results a lot closer • Developed improved understanding of how historical energy efficiency program impacts are included in Energy Commission’s demand forecasts • Forum for public input on CPUC’s energy efficiency potential study • Participate in CPUC’s macroconsumption metrics research

10. DAWG Benefits • Transparency • Stakeholders from diverse organizations and areas of expertise share information in informal setting – fosters communication between within and between organizations • Forecasting/EE Evaluation and Reporting • Energy Efficiency/Procurement • Utilities/Regulators • IOUs/POUs • Theory/Practice • Implementation/Policy • Significant stakeholder interest and participation

11. DAWG Benefits • Transparency • Stakeholders from diverse organizations and areas of expertise share information in informal setting – fosters communication between “silos” • Forecasting • Energy Efficiency Planning • Energy Efficiency Evaluation, Measurement and Evaluation (EM&V) • Generation Procurement • Grid Operations (CAISO) • Significant stakeholder interest and participation • 130 members on DAWG list

12. DAWG Working Group: Next Steps • CPUC Energy Efficiency goals study – forum for public input • Continue discussing options for a shared model (Energy Commission and utilities) for demand forecasting • Monitor and affect developments in energy efficiency program evaluation/reporting/data in a manner that can improve inclusion of program impacts in demand forecasts. • Consider expanding DAWG to include demand response, distributed generation • Closer coordination with CAISO

13. DAWG Website www.demandanalysisworkinggroup.org

14. DAWG Contact Chris Ann Dickerson, PhD DAWG Project Manager 510-562-1034 (Office) cadickerson@cadconsulting.biz