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Richard M. Hodur Marine Meteorology Division Naval Research Laboratory Monterey, CA

Discover how NRL Monterey is enhancing cyclone modeling using COAMPS, focusing on infrastructure, analysis, coupled systems, and ensemble predictions for improved accuracy.

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Richard M. Hodur Marine Meteorology Division Naval Research Laboratory Monterey, CA

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  1. Richard M. Hodur Marine Meteorology Division Naval Research Laboratory Monterey, CA NRL Monterey Plans for Tropical Cyclone Modeling using the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) 61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, New Orleans, LA 6 March 2007 COAMPS® is a registered trademark of the Naval Research Laboratory

  2. NRL Monterey Plans for Tropical Cyclone Modeling using COAMPS Outline • Introduction/Background • Modeling Infrastructure • TC Related Research • Analysis/Initialization • Boundary Layer • Moving, Nested Grids • Air/Ocean Coupling • Ensemble Prediction • Summary

  3. NRL Monterey Plans for Tropical Cyclone Modeling using COAMPS Introduction/Background • COAMPS operational at FNMOC since 1998 • Operational use primarily for mid-latitudes • Atmosphere only • 0-3 day forecasts • Not used operationally as a ″TC model″ • Non-optimal grid configurations • High-resolution nest not centered on TC • NRL research now focused on TC analysis and prediction • Infrastructure • Analysis • Physical parameterizations • Air-Ocean-Wave Coupling • ″COAMPS-TC″ scheduled for operational use in FY08

  4. NRL Monterey Plans for Tropical Cyclone Modeling using COAMPS Outline • Introduction/Background • Modeling Infrastructure • TC Related Research • Analysis/Initialization • Boundary Layer • Moving, Nested Grids • Air/Ocean Coupling • Ensemble Prediction • Summary

  5. COAMPS Modeling Infrastructure Atmospheric Model Dynamics Physics

  6. COAMPS Modeling Infrastructure Atmospheric Model Ocean Model Dynamics Dynamics Physics Physics

  7. COAMPS Modeling Infrastructure ESMF Modeling Superstructure Atmospheric Model Ocean Model Dynamics Dynamics Physics Physics ESMF superstructure used to couple models

  8. COAMPS Modeling Infrastructure ESMF Modeling Superstructure Atmospheric Model Ocean Model Dynamics Dynamics Physics Physics Flux Coupler Flux coupler transfers fields between models ESMF superstructure used to couple models

  9. Dynamics Physics NRL NCAR NCEP COAMPS Modeling Infrastructure ESMF Modeling Superstructure Atmospheric Model Ocean Model Dynamics WRF Physics Interface to Physics Suites Flux Coupler Flux coupler transfers fields between models WRF interface allows for different physics suites ESMF superstructure used to couple models

  10. Dynamics Physics NRL NCAR NCEP Flux coupler transfers fields between models WRF interface allows for different physics suites ESMF superstructure used to couple models COAMPS Modeling Infrastructure ESMF Modeling Superstructure Atmospheric Model Ocean Model Dynamics WRF Physics Interface to Physics Suites Flux Coupler Bottom Line: Share Community Models/Share Community Physics

  11. Dynamics Dynamics Physics Physics NRL NCAR NCEP Flux coupler transfers fields between models WRF interface allows for different physics suites ESMF superstructure used to couple models COAMPS Modeling Infrastructure ESMF Modeling Superstructure Atmospheric Model Ocean Model Wave Model Dynamics WRF Physics Interface to Physics Suites Flux Coupler Bottom Line: Share Community Models/Share Community Physics Relatively easy to add new modeling components

  12. COAMPS Modeling Infrastructure • Using ESMF to couple models • Using WRF to include physics suites • Advantages: • Easy to couple models • Can test many physics options • Lessons Learned • Large overhead in running “plug-and-play” physics • Learn from past/present: Set community standards • Grid orientation (i,j,k) • Input variables (i.e., namelist control) • Standard way of building models/systems • Collaborate w/NCEP, NCAR, others on ESMF development/use • Treat computer science as science

  13. Atmospheric Analysis Ocean Analysis • Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA)System • 2D OI: SST • 3D MVOI: T, S, SSH, Sea Ice, Currents • Complex Data Quality Control • Initialization:Stability check • Complex Data Quality Control • 3DVAR analysis: u, v, T, qv, radiances; observation-space based; supports nested grids; includes synthetic TC observations • Initialization:Hydrostatic Constraint on Analysis Increments, and/or Digital Filter Atmospheric Model Ocean Model • Numerics:Nonhydrostatic, Scheme C, Nested Grids, Sigma-z, Flexible Lateral BCs • Physics:PBL, Convection, Explicit Moist Physics, Radiation, Surface Layer • Aerosols: Surface databases, High-order Transport, Dry Deposition, Wet Removal • NRL Coastal Ocean Model(NCOM) • Numerics:Hydrostatic, Scheme C, Nested Grids, Hybrid Sigma/z • Physics:Mellor-Yamada 2.5 • Flux Coupler Features • Globally Relocatable:5 Map Projections • User-Defined Grid Resolutions, Dimensions, and Number of Nested/Parent Grids • Applicable for Idealized or Real-Time Applications • Single Configuration Managed System for All Applications • FNMOC Operations:8 Areas, 4 runs/day, grid spacing: 6 km, 30 levels; forecasts to 72 hours COAMPS Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System

  14. NRL Monterey Plans for Tropical Cyclone Modeling using COAMPS Outline • Introduction/Background • Modeling Infrastructure • TC Related Research • Analysis/Initialization • Boundary Layer • Moving, Nested Grids • Air/Ocean Coupling • Ensemble Prediction • Summary

  15. (74 cases) NOGAPS Synthetics COAMPS Synthetics Forecast Track Error (km) NOGAPS Synthetics NOGAPS Synthetics Forecast Time (Hours) COAMPS Synthetics COAMPS Synthetics High-resolution Synthetic Observations for TC Initialization Case: 0000 UTC 9 September 2000 • Synthetic Observations Built From: • Modified Rankine Vortex • JTWC Warning Message w/Satellite Data • NOGAPS T20/L15 truncated fields • Blend Synthetics w/all other observations in MVOI Improved TC Track Forecasts with new synthetics Higher resolution with new synthetics Improved TC representation with new synthetics

  16. Satellite Photo at Analysis Time TC Analysis: NAVDAS/Relocation 850 mb Wind, Analysis Time: 0000 UTC 29 September 2005

  17. First Guess First-guess field has TC circulation in wrong location Satellite Photo at Analysis Time TC Analysis: NAVDAS/Relocation 850 mb Wind, Analysis Time: 0000 UTC 29 September 2005

  18. First Guess First-guess field has TC circulation in wrong location Analysis w/o Relocation Satellite Photo at Analysis Time NAVDAS w/synthetic obs creates elongated TC circulation TC Analysis: NAVDAS/Relocation 850 mb Wind, Analysis Time: 0000 UTC 29 September 2005

  19. First Guess First-guess field has TC circulation in wrong location Analysis w/Relocation Analysis w/o Relocation Satellite Photo at Analysis Time NAVDAS w/synthetic obs creates elongated TC circulation Relocation improves analysis position of TC circulation TC Analysis: NAVDAS/Relocation 850 mb Wind, Analysis Time: 0000 UTC 29 September 2005

  20. First Guess First-guess field has TC circulation in wrong location Analysis w/Relocation Analysis w/o Relocation Satellite Photo at Analysis Time NAVDAS w/synthetic obs creates elongated TC circulation Relocation improves analysis position of TC circulation TC Analysis: NAVDAS/Relocation 850 mb Wind, Analysis Time: 0000 UTC 29 September 2005 Also studying impact of using “spin-up” storm and NAVDAS options

  21. Increased resolution yields improved depiction of details in the SST field 9 km 27 km 81 km NCODA NRL Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation Focus: Optimal fit of observational and model data • Options: • 2D OI SST analysis • 3D MVOI analysis (T, S, SSH, Currents, Ice Concentration, Significant Wave Height) • Features • Integrated with COAMPS • Assimilates MCSST; GOES, LAC, Ship, and Buoy SST; XBT; CTD; PALACE Float; Fixed and Drifting Buoy; Altimeter SSHA; SSM/I Sea Ice; Altimeter and Buoy SWH • Nested grids • 5 Map projections • Integrated w/Modular Ocean Data Assimilation System (MODAS) databases • Transitions to FNMOC: • FY99: 2D SST analysis for COAMPS • FY02: New QC code • FY03: 3D ocean MVOI; 2D SST for NOGAPS • Supports: • Atmosphere: NOGAPS, COAMPS • Ocean: NCOM, HYCOM, SWAFS, WW3 • On-going Research: • New data types: • Currents: HF Radar, Drifters • SST: Microwave, Skin SST from AATSR • Detection and Correction of Aerosol Contamination in Infrared Satellite SST Retrievals • Convert to 3d variational analysis

  22. NRL Monterey Plans for Tropical Cyclone Modeling using COAMPS Outline • Introduction/Background • Modeling Infrastructure • TC Related Research • Analysis/Initialization • Boundary Layer • Moving, Nested Grids • Air/Ocean Coupling • Ensemble Prediction • Summary

  23. Objective Understand air-sea interaction in the coastal environment and improve boundary layer parameterization in COAMPS for low- and high-wind events over the ocean Approach Perform COAMPS simulations down to LES scales, and analyze CBLAST observational data Black and Chen (2006) CBLAST Coupled Boundary Layers/Air-Sea Transfer ONR DRI CBLAST measurements (heavy black line with asterisks) suggest that the drag coefficient does not vary with wind speed as much as earlier estimates for winds over about 21 m/s. CBLAST Uncertainty also exists for CE/CD

  24. COAMPS 4.2.4 1000 980 960 Central Pressure (mb) Observed SLP 940 COAMPS new 920 900 COAMPS w/ARWSFC 880 0 20 40 60 80 Forecast Time (h) CBLAST Coupled Boundary Layers/Air-Sea Transfer ONR DRI COAMPS 4.2.4 Based on Louis (1979) and COARE (Fairall 1996; 2003) COAMPS new Based on COAMPS 4.2.4, with constant drag coefficient over 22 m/s and modified z0q and z0h COAMPS w/ARWSFC COAMPS model implemented with the WRF ARW surface layer parameterization COAMPS TC intensity forecasts have strong sensitivity to surface flux parameters

  25. NRL Monterey Plans for Tropical Cyclone Modeling using COAMPS Outline • Introduction/Background • Modeling Infrastructure • TC Related Research • Analysis/Initialization • Boundary Layer • Moving, Nested Grids • Air/Ocean Coupling • Ensemble Prediction • Summary

  26. COAMPS MPI Moving Nests Hurricane Gordon: 00Z September 17- 00Z September 19, 2000 Fixed Nest Option 48 h 0 h Forecast position every 6 hours 27 km (121x85) 81 km (61x61)

  27. Nest 2 at tau = 48 h Moving Nest Option 27 km (46x46) Nest 2 at tau = 0 h 81 km (61x61) COAMPS MPI Moving Nests Hurricane Gordon: 00Z September 17- 00Z September 19, 2000 Fixed Nest Option 48 h Forecast position every 6 hours 0 h Forecast position every 6 hours 27 km (121x85) 81 km (61x61)

  28. Nest 2 at tau = 48 h Moving Nest Option 27 km (46x46) Nest 2 at tau = 0 h 81 km (61x61) COAMPS MPI Moving Nests Hurricane Gordon: 00Z September 17- 00Z September 19, 2000 Fixed Nest Option 48 h Forecast position every 6 hours 0 h Forecast position every 6 hours 27 km (121x85) 81 km (61x61) • Results • Identical Track Predictions for Fixed and Moving Nests • Moving Nest Option: 2.7x Faster

  29. Nest 2 at tau = 48 h Moving Nest Option 27 km (46x46) Nest 2 at tau = 0 h 81 km (61x61) COAMPS MPI Moving Nests Hurricane Gordon: 00Z September 17- 00Z September 19, 2000 Fixed Nest Option 48 h Forecast position every 6 hours 0 h Forecast position every 6 hours 27 km (121x85) 81 km (61x61) • Results • Identical Track Predictions for Fixed and Moving Nests • Moving Nest Option: 2.7x Faster • Recently Added Two-Way Interaction between all Nests

  30. NRL Monterey Plans for Tropical Cyclone Modeling using COAMPS Outline • Introduction/Background • Modeling Infrastructure • TC Related Research • Analysis/Initialization • Boundary Layer • Moving, Nested Grids • Air/Ocean Coupling • Ensemble Prediction • Summary

  31. M1 Observations COAMPS 3 km Forecast Surface Stress Compares Favorably to Observed Stress at M1 Buoy August 2003 COAMPS Forecast 27 km August 2003 The leftmost 3 boxes show COAMPS wind speed (color) and direction (arrows) for 27, 9, and 3 km grids Results: Improved representation of the wind stress curl using the 3 km grid at the coast leads to improved representation of upwelling  9 km M1 Representation of Coastal Jets, Wind Stress Curl, and Coastal Shear Zones Improved using Higher Resolution Grid 3 km 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Wind Speed (m/s) Coastal Upwelling Adaptive Ocean Sampling Network II (AOSN-II) Horizontal Resolution Sensitivity/Wind Stress Validation Graphs on right show observed (upper) and COAMPS (lower) Surface Stress

  32. Forecasts of Adriatic include a 4 km COAMPS nest and a 2 km NCOM grid 1. One-Way Coupling 12 h incremental update cycle MVOI MVOI 28 Repeat 6h Atmosphere Fcst 6h Atmosphere Fcst 24 SST Analysis SST Analysis SST Analysis 20 16 Wind Speed (m/s) NCOM FCST w/hourly forcing 12 Data Assimilation and Forecasts were run for the period of 23 Sept through 23 Oct 2002, which exhibited Bora conditions 8 2. Two-Way Coupling 4 12 h incremental update cycle MVOI MVOI 0 Repeat 6h Atmosphere Fcst 6h Atmosphere Fcst NCOM SST NCOM SST NCOM SST NCOM FCST w/hourly forcing, SST to atm every 6 hrs Bora • NCOM Initial Conditions (23 Sept 2002): • T/S Analysis from CTD Casts (SACLANTCEN) • 5-day diagnostic run using fixed hourly atmospheric forcing for 23 Sept One-Way vs.Two-Way Coupling Air-Sea Interaction in the Adriatic Sea

  33. One-way coupled SST One-way coupled Sensible Heat Flux Two-way coupled SST Two-way coupled Sensible Heat Flux Mean Potential Temperature for Two-way coupling (upper) and [Two-way] - [One-way] differences (lower), showing colder atmosphere mixed layer and warmer ocean mixed layer with two-way coupling. Two-way coupling exhibits smaller sensible heat fluxes (left), presumably from mutual adjustment in atmosphere and ocean mixed layers. As a result, NCOM SSTs (right) from the two-way coupled system are slightly warmer than those from the one-way coupled system. One-Way vs.Two-Way Coupling Air-Sea Interaction in the Adriatic Sea 30 day means: 23 Sept – 23 Oct 2002 Lowest SST and near-surface wind RMS and Bias Errors found using 2-way Coupling

  34. Prototype Two-Way Air/Ocean Coupling in COAMPS Hurricane Frances

  35. NRL Monterey Plans for Tropical Cyclone Modeling using COAMPS Outline • Introduction/Background • Modeling Infrastructure • TC Related Research • Analysis/Initialization • Boundary Layer • Moving, Nested Grids • Air/Ocean Coupling • Ensemble Prediction • Summary

  36. Satellite photo at validation time CTRL Mean l1 l2 Sh2 Sh1 Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System COAMPS:Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System • Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System Development • Collaborative w/Joint Ensemble Forecast System (JEFS) • Navy/AF • FNMOC/AFWA Computers • 29-member COAMPS ensemble: • Based on 29-member NOGAPS ensemble • 6-hour update cycle • Relocatable domain • Initial condition perturbations • Lateral boundary condition uncertainty • Model uncertainty • CTRL is the control forecast • Mean is the average of all the ensemble members • I1, I2, Sh1, and Sh2 are members using different values of boundary layer parameters Mean of ensembles represents west coast stratus better than the control run or any ensemble member generated using different boundary layer parameters

  37. NRL Monterey Plans for Tropical Cyclone Modeling using COAMPS Summary • Current Research • Infrastructure • Analysis • Boundary Layer • Moving, Nested Grids • Air/Ocean/Wave Coupling • Ensemble Prediction • Schedule • FY07 • Two-Way Air/Ocean Beta Test • Surface Flux/Moist Physics Upgrades to FNMOC • FY08 • Initial “COAMPS for TCs” to FNMOC • Improved TC analysis (e.g., relocation, spin-up) • Initial installation will be uncoupled • Air/Wave Coupling Development • FY09+ • Air/Ocean Coupling to operations • Air/Wave Coupling to operations

  38. Richard M. Hodur Marine Meteorology Division Naval Research Laboratory Monterey, CA NRL Monterey Plans for Tropical Cyclone Modeling using the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) 61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, New Orleans, LA 6 March 2007 COAMPS® is a registered trademark of the Naval Research Laboratory

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