What will future Communities look like? Peter Marshall Strategy & Policy Manager 5 May 2011

1. What will future Communities look like? Peter Marshall Strategy & Policy Manager 5 May 2011

2. Questions? What is a Community? Why should Communities be any different? What time scale – 10 years – 20 years – 100 years?

3. Questions? What is a Community? Why should Communities be any different? What time scale – 10 years – 20 years – 100 years?

4. What is a Community? Trade and service areas surrounding a central village (C. J. Galpin 1915) Fellowship is heaven, and lack of fellowship is hell (William Morris 1886/7) Place-Work-Folk Patrick Geddes

5. Why should Communities be any different? Aspirations Dissatisfaction with recent developments

6. Why should Communities be any different? Aspirations Communications revolution Home working Hub offices

7. Why should Communities be any different? Climate Change Changing weather patterns affecting design and location New street trees Palms, London Plane Energy & Fuel prices Individual & community renewable technologies Clustering round public transport corridors Aging population Smaller houses / retirement communities Mortgage availability Tenure & lifestyle shift

8. What time scale – 10 years– 20 years – 100 years? • I doubt if we will see much change • The developments largely already have consent • Development curtailed • Little appetite for risk • Little money for research and development • The current financial climate is curtailing innovation

9. What time scale – 10 years– 20 years – 100 years? • What we can expect is • Heightened debate with more Regulation & Guidance • Individual solutions • Demonstration projects

10. What time scale – 10 years – 20 years – 100 years?

11. What time scale – 10 years –20 years– 100 years? • Common themes • Mixed communities / neighbourhoodsGreater percentage of needs met locally • Perhaps based round community schools • Greater tenure diversity • More live work opportunities within community

12. What time scale – 10 years –20 years– 100 years? • Common themes • Energy efficient buildings • Community renewables /District Heating / CHP • Clustered round public transport nodes • People will be more involved in shaping their communities

13. What time scale – 10 years –20 years– 100 years? • The great debate is design • HRH Prince Charles • v • Radical thinkers

14. Poundbury

15. Poundbury

16. Poundbury

17. Poundbury

18. Poundbury

19. Poundbury

20. Bedzed

21. Bedzed

22. Living Solar Wall BDP

23. Living Solar Wall BDP

24. What time scale – 10 years – 20 years –100 years? Who knows?

25. What time scale – 10 years – 20 years –100 years? 2100 and England is 4oC hotter. Between super-dense city tenements where most live, the parks are parched and dusty. What vegetation remains is mostly on buildings as they are clad to offset the heat. Children play on green rooftops. The roads are white reflect solar radiation. Londoners emerge in the "warmth-heavy night" to parade on the traffic-free streets like Spaniards. Idyllic?

26. What time scale – 10 years – 20 years –100 years? Nature will survive mainly in the Scottish Highlands. The bad news according to Kohn Where human settlement is rendered impossible by midges and ticks, scrub will spread over the bare hills, except where wild fires wipe them clean again. Final thoughts The future is coming and it will be different But do any of us know what our Communities will look like?