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Crop Marketing & Outlook

Crop Marketing & Outlook. Iowa PAS Regional Fall Conference Ames, Iowa September 25, 2009 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Source: USDA. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use. Source: USDA.

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Crop Marketing & Outlook

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  1. Crop Marketing & Outlook Iowa PAS Regional Fall Conference Ames, Iowa September 25, 2009 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA

  4. U.S. Soybean Meal Supply and Use Source: USDA

  5. Historical Freeze Data Source: Dr. Elwynn Taylor, ISU

  6. Fall Temperature Outlook Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center

  7. World Corn Production Source: USDA

  8. World Soybean Production Source: USDA

  9. Hog Returns vs. Corn Prices Sources: ISU Extension, Farrow-to-Finish; USDA-NASS

  10. Smaller Livestock Numbers Source: USDA, NASS, various reports

  11. Exchange Rates (Jan. 2003 = 1) Source: USDA, ERS

  12. Exchange Rates (Jan. 2009 = 1) Source: USDA, ERS

  13. Exports & Advance Sales(1st 3 weeks of marketing year) Source: USDA, FAS

  14. 2009 U.S. Corn Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  15. 2009 U.S. Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  16. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) 50% GHG Emission Reduction 60% GHG Emission Reduction 20% GHG Emission Reduction If construction started after Dec. 2007

  17. Ethanol Margins Source: ISU, CARD

  18. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

  19. Outside Influences (Jan. 2007 = 1)

  20. Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA, NYMEX

  21. Bio-based Market Opportunities Source: Informa Economics, Biobased Multi-Client Study, March 2006

  22. Biobased Pathways Source: USDA, 2008, U.S. Biobased Products: Market Potential and Projections Through 2025

  23. Dept. of Energy Projections Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2009

  24. Draft Lifecycle GHG Reductions Source: EPA, May 2009

  25. Corn 1990 - 2006

  26. Corn

  27. Seasonal Pricing Patterns Source: USDA, NASS, Monthly Price Data 1980-2008

  28. Corn Futures 2009 Rev. Ins. Price $4.04 Source: CBOT, 9/24/09

  29. Soybean Futures 2009 Rev. Ins. Price $8.80 Source: CBOT, 9/24/09

  30. Soybean Meal Futures Source: CBOT, 9/24/09

  31. Iowa Crop Basis

  32. Ratio: Nov. 2010 Soy/Dec. 2010 Corn Source: CBOT

  33. Input Costs Source: USDA, Agricultural Prices, Aug. 31, 2009

  34. Thoughts for 2009 and Beyond • General economic conditions • Recession concerns still hold significant power in the markets • Projected economic recovery is a major key for crop prices for the 2009 crop year • Continued weakness in the dollar helping exports • Most important ag. statistics: Weather forecast, feed demand • USDA is indicating 2009 season-average prices in the neighborhood of $3.35 for corn and $9.10 for soybeans • Current futures Yesterday: Corn $3.14, Soy $8.70

  35. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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