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AN SCGE model integrating the energy system and the regional economy

AN SCGE model integrating the energy system and the regional economy. Ruud Egging 24 Oct 2013 CREE meets CenSES. Insights we want from RegPol SCGE. Regional energy balance and supply costs/prices Impact (energy-intensive) industry output, goods prices and consumption levels

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AN SCGE model integrating the energy system and the regional economy

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  1. AN SCGE model integratingthe energy system andthe regional economy Ruud Egging 24 Oct 2013 CREE meets CenSES

  2. Insights we want from RegPol SCGE • Regional energy balance and supply costs/prices • Impact (energy-intensive) industry output, goods prices and consumption levels • economic activity & growth, commodity prices & demand • Integrated/consistent projections for energy supply and demand (rel. to other models)

  3. RegPol Models • Energy systems model (TIMES-Norway) • National macroeconomic model (MODDAG/MSG) • Economic-demographic single-region model (PANDA) • SCGE for regional economies and relations between economy and energy system (*)

  4. Role of SCGE in RegPol • Regional analysis • Spatial-Equilibrium setting • Bridge between TIMES and PANDA • Impact on value creation, energy balance & security, energy prices by region, industry type

  5. Multi-Regional Multi-Sector Multi-Period • 7+sokkel regions (later 19 counties + 1) • Enough sector detail to capture interactions, substitution and impact of energy system: • multiple fuels and energy carriers • production (sectors) & conversion technologies, incl. substitution and efficiency • transportation (infra: use of capital, or endowment) • consumption • government

  6. Prototype - Regions • Eight Norwegian regions (incl. Sokkel) • One outside world • Eventually: 19 Fylke + Sokkel + surrounding countries

  7. Production Sectors - Energy • Reflect energy carrier production and conversion: • OIL, GAS • Oil and natural gas (or separate, so that e.g. easier to reflect different developments in prod levels?) • ELE • Electricity (All inclusive Hydro plus newly installed renewables as scenario assumptions?) • Refineries?

  8. Production Sectors Other • Focus on energy intensive sectors • Construction (infra) • Energy intensive industries, incl. refining • Manufacturing other • Services • Eventually: separate refineries, and more detail in classes of energy intensiveness?

  9. Transport and trade • Want to reflect energy transport, general trade and pax transport (el-cars, biofuels..) • electricity • oil/gas • freight • passengers

  10. Transport and Trade • Trade, also foreign trade, on a regional level, especially for energy • Can consider an energy trader using energy transport services and needing capital and other input factors to reflect infrastructure (capacity needs) • Pax transport via consumer demand

  11. Household Consumption • Is not likely to be a main driver of our model in itself • But need to be able to reflect price, tax & other measures and incentives impact on consumption changes

  12. Governments • Regional and National • Measures, regulations, taxes, incentives • Regional: projects/business cases

  13. Modeling Rest of the World • Want to capture Energy Exports and Imports county specific: • FIN; RUS; SWE, DK, DEU, NLD, UKD, ROW…? • Levels/Balances: • Exogenous net import/export level?

  14. Time periods • Want to reflect daily load and seasonal variation in supply and demand • Eventually dynamic model with long-term horizon

  15. Thank you for your attention

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