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Evolving Trade and Economic Architecture in the Asia-Pacific Region: Visions, Reality, Gaps, Layers

Evolving Trade and Economic Architecture in the Asia-Pacific Region: Visions, Reality, Gaps, Layers. Robert Scollay New Zealand APEC Study Centre University of Auckland. Visions. Trans-Pacific East Asia-Centric. Trans-Pacific Vision. Catalyst: end of Cold War and creation of APEC

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Evolving Trade and Economic Architecture in the Asia-Pacific Region: Visions, Reality, Gaps, Layers

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  1. Evolving Trade and Economic Architecture in the Asia-Pacific Region:Visions, Reality, Gaps, Layers Robert Scollay New Zealand APEC Study Centre University of Auckland

  2. Visions • Trans-Pacific • East Asia-Centric

  3. Trans-Pacific Vision • Catalyst: end of Cold War and creation of APEC • Accelerant: East Asia-North America economic interdependence • Vehicles • APEC • encountered limitations of “concerted unilateral” approach to trade liberalisation • FTAAP • APEC-wide FTA • TPP • ‘stepping stone’ to FTAAP?

  4. East Asia-Centric Vision • Catalyst: East Asian economic crisis 1997-98 • Spur to “East Asian regionalism” • Accelerant: expansion of East Asian production networks • Vehicles • ASEAN Plus Three (China, Japan, Korea [CJK] and ASEAN) • EAFTA (East Asian FTA) • monetary and financial initiatives • ‘Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI) • ASEAN Plus Six/East Asian Summit (including Australia, New Zealand, India) • CEPEA (Comprehensive Economic Partnership for East Asia) • key vehicle for New Zealand engagement with East Asia

  5. Today’s Reality “Noodle Bowl”: • Over 30 bilateral FTAs • Multiple impulses (no single “vision”) • Intra-East Asia • Trans-Pacific • East Asia-Australasia • Plurilateral • NAFTA, AFTA, P4 • “ASEAN Plus FTAs” • “ASEAN Plus One”: ASEAN-China, ASEAN-Japan, ASEAN-Korea • AANZFTA (ASEAN-Australia and NZ FTA)

  6. Gaps – East Asia • ASEAN has completed links with all prospective EAFTA and CEPEA partners • But CJK link is missing from both EAFTA and CEPEA • can this link be completed? how? CJK FTA? • implications for East Asian leadership • CJK-ANZ link missing from CEPEA (except China-NZ) • FTAs under negotiation: Australia-China, Australia-Japan, Australia-Korea, NZ-Korea • under discussion: NZ-Japan • India-CJK and India-ANZ links missing • India-NZ FTA negotiations about to start • Taiwan and Hong Kong • major players in East Asian trade

  7. Gaps – Trans-Pacific • TPP currently a “stepping stone” • Questions for moving beyond “stepping stone” status • participation by Japan? Korea? China? • ASEAN “buy-in”? • beyond Singapore, Brunei, Viet Nam • CJK link becomes a question mark here as well • complicated by concerns over relative positions vis-à-vis USA • could expanded TPP balance emerging G2?

  8. Layers Layers of regional economic integration: • Community-building • agendas in APEC, ASEAN+3, ASEAN+6, ASEAN • Monetary and financial integration • pursued mainly within ASEAN+3 at present • Common markets • ASEAN Economic Community, ANZ Single Economic Market • Trade • gains from trade: FTAAP > CEPEA > EAFTA (also as steps towards multilateralism) • political economy: ? • “decoupling” v. Trans-Pacific interdependence

  9. Does Layering Provide a Basis for Coexistence of the Two Visions? • East Asian and Trans-Pacific visions pursued within different layers of integration? • Provide for both East Asian identity and trans-Pacific interdependence?

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