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Electricity Demand and Supply Outlook

Electricity Demand and Supply Outlook. Presentation to the Assembly Utilities and Commerce Committee. William J. Keese, Chairman California Energy Commission January 15, 2004. Electricity Demand Trends. 2. Projected 2004 – 2010 Supply. 3. Supply/Demand Balance. 4.

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Electricity Demand and Supply Outlook

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  1. Electricity Demand and Supply Outlook Presentation to the Assembly Utilities and Commerce Committee William J. Keese, Chairman California Energy Commission January 15, 2004

  2. Electricity Demand Trends 2

  3. Projected 2004 – 2010 Supply 3

  4. Supply/Demand Balance 4

  5. Projected Operating Reserves 5

  6. 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Megawatts High DSM Scenario Peak Demand Reduction 1 145 414 712 983 1,205 1,395 Incremental New Renewables Goals of Energy 1 Action Plan 36 50 145 246 352 461 567 2 Demand response goals from D-03-06-032 859 1,125 1,522 1,925 1,965 1,972 2,006 Total (MW) 896 1,320 2,081 2,883 3,300 3,638 3,968 Potential Energy Savings and Generation Additions from Demand Reduction, Demand Response, and Renewable Generation Program Goals 1. Dependable Capacity during Peak Hours 2. CPUC Interim Opinion In Phase 1 Addressing Demand Response Goals And Adopting Tariffs And Programs For Large Customers 6

  7. 12000 10000 8000 Dependable Capacity (MW) 6000 4000 2000 0 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s Decade online California’s Natural Gas Power Plants Are Aging Nearly 31,000 MW of Total Gas-Fired Generation 10,627 8,035 5,109 3,848 2,038 1,203 7

  8. Plant Retirement Issues • Market forces are currently working to retire uneconomic plants. • Not all aging power plants are a problem. • Resource Adequacy requirements are one way to mitigate reliability concerns. • Aging Power Plant Study to be conducted as part of 2004 IEPR update. 8

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