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Communications, Travel and Social Networks since 1840: A Study Using Agent-based Models

Microsoft Summer School, June 2010. Communications, Travel and Social Networks since 1840: A Study Using Agent-based Models Supervisors: Nigel Gilbert, Richard Harper. Lynne Hamill. Centre for Research in Social Simulation University of Surrey, UK. Outline. Communication & travel

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Communications, Travel and Social Networks since 1840: A Study Using Agent-based Models

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  1. Microsoft Summer School, June 2010 Communications, Travel and Social Networks since 1840: A Study Using Agent-based Models Supervisors: Nigel Gilbert, Richard Harper Lynne Hamill Centre for Research in Social Simulation University of Surrey, UK

  2. Outline • Communication & travel • Computational sociology • Results • Doing a PhD

  3. Communication & travel Overview Key idea: The more we communicate, the more we travel. Approach: • Person-to-person social communication • Interaction of transport, communication & social networks • Three case studies

  4. Communications & travel 1. 1840-1913: Mail & rail

  5. Communications & travel 2. 1951-2001: Phones & cars

  6. Communications & travel 3. 1998-2007: Digital age

  7. Communications & travel General model: adoption Adoption of a new mode of communication depends on • availability • affordability • skills • social networks

  8. Communications & travel General model: use (1) A new mode of communication affects communication use in four ways: • Social solidarity effect • Communication substitution • New practices • Global village effect

  9. Communications & travel General model: use (2) A new mode of communication affects travel in three ways • Travel substitution effect • Travel complementarity effect • Travel communications effect

  10. Computational sociology Sociology • Study of society • Individuals & society • the micro-macro problem • Emergence & complexity Strogatz (1994): “…linear systems can be broken down into parts. Then each part can be solved separately and finally recombined to get the answer. But many things in nature don’t act in this way. Whenever parts of a system interfere, or cooperate, or compete, there are nonlinear interactions going on. Most of everyday life is nonlinear.”

  11. Computational sociology Computational sociology

  12. Computational sociology Agent-based models Two components • Environment: • representing social space • Agents: who interact with one another and the environment • representing individuals or households, with characteristics that can change over time

  13. Computational sociology Examples Model Results

  14. Results Key results • Demand for communications and travel generated from social networks. • The importance of literacy • Same model with different parameters can reproduce adoption of mobiles and internet • Internet differs from previous communication modes because in enables new contacts

  15. Results Forecasts: 2021 • Texting: • two-thirds higher compared to 2007 • Internet: • Personal networks 15% larger • 2½ times more online links than in 2007

  16. Doing a PhD Tips • Stay focussed • Take supervisors’ advice • Don’t underestimate the time needed for the ‘end game’ • Enjoy it!

  17. Thank youLynne Hamill Centre for Research in Social Simulation University of Surrey, UK www.hamill.co.uk

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