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Portland MetroScope: A Regional Decision-Making Tool

This presentation discusses the Portland MetroScope tool, its development history, current status, and usage examples. It covers demand forecasting, travel times/access, job demand and location choices, residential and non-residential models, land supply/capacity data, and more.

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Portland MetroScope: A Regional Decision-Making Tool

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  1. Portland Metro: MetroScope 2002 – 2008 A Tool for Regional Decision Making Presentation to the New York Metropolitan Transportation Council Sonny Conder, Principal Planner May 1, 2008 Metro Data Resource Center

  2. Presentation Outline • Model Description • Model Development History • Present Status and Operating Staffing • Examples of How We Use the Model Metro Data Resource Center

  3. HIA Demand Forecast Travel Times/Access (Travel Demand Model) Job Demand Forecast HIA location choices Job location choices Job Location Choices Metroscope Residential Model Metroscope Non-Residential Model HIA Location Choices Land Supply / Capacity Data Vacant Land, Refill Supply, UR etc. Metroscope Schematic Metro Data Resource Center

  4. Clark Co. Washington Co. Multnomah Co. Tailored to allocate growth to UGB, but also anticipates external “leakage”. Clackamas Co. Forecast Allocation Area 6.5 counties 2 m pop 425 rzones 72 ezones 2029 taz’s Metro Data Resource Center

  5. Present MetroScope operating requirements • Model operates in 5 year periods from year 2000 to 2035. A 35 year run requires 28 hours. • Staff time required per run for model. • Model operation: Less than 1 staff hour for review, initiation and run time monitoring • Run setup: 2 – 6 staff hours for land use schedules by period – UGB expansions, Urban Renewal births/deaths. • Run output evaluation and reporting: 1 – 21 staff days depending on use, mapping and write up needs. Metro Data Resource Center

  6. Background of MetroScope • Originally one zone residential model used for housing needs analysis. • Multi-zones added in 98. • Developed entirely “in house” by Metro technical staff starting in 96 – 97. • Non-residential model added in 99. • Partial conversion from entirely spreadsheet to Visual Basic in 2001 – 02. • Complete Visual Basic in 2004 • Addition of internal travel demand – assignment model; conversion to open source,R code (PTV) and programming integration (PTV) as one model in 2005 – 2006. Metro Data Resource Center

  7. Informing Planners & Policy Makers • Transportation Planning • Corridor Studies • Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) • Transit Studies (e.g., Light Rail) • Land Use Planning • Jobs and Housing Needs Analysis • Periodic Review • UGB analysis • Testing Alternative Land Use & Transportation Policies Metro Data Resource Center

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  17. Annual Land Consumption

  18. Land Consumed by Type: 2000-2030 Metro Data Resource Center

  19. Land Consumed By Source2000-2030 • Annual vacant land consumption rate: 1,500 gross acres per year • 36,000 gross acres total • Refill land: 8,300 • 2,300 gross acres in centers Metro Data Resource Center

  20. Land Efficiency MeasuresEmployment • : 8.7 units/gross acre • Clackamas 4.6 • Washington: 4.9 • 158,000 single family units -> 64% • 90,000 multi-family units -> 36% Metro Data Resource Center

  21. Land Efficiency MeasuresEmployment • Floor to Area Ratios: • Industrial = 0.24 (regional average) • Commercial = 0.34 (regional average) • Job Densities • Industrial = 800 sq. ft. / job (13 jobs/acre) • Commercial = 480 sq. ft. / job (31 jobs/acre) Metro Data Resource Center

  22. Capture Rate Housing: 69.5% Employment: 75.5% Refill Rate Housing: 30.9% Industrial: 7.6% Commercial: 47.7% Institutional: 40.7% Aggregated Total: 36.5% Residential Refill and Capture Rates Metro Data Resource Center

  23. Residential Development Density by Land Source Metro Data Resource Center

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