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Recycling Market Update Rob Taylor, November 1, 2017

Recycling Market Update Rob Taylor, November 1, 2017. Recycling Market Update. Until recently recyclable commodity trends have been favorable for public recycling programs

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Recycling Market Update Rob Taylor, November 1, 2017

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  1. Recycling Market UpdateRob Taylor, November 1, 2017

  2. Recycling Market Update • Until recently recyclable commodity trends have been favorable for public recycling programs • Series of Chinese initiatives have introduced uncertainty and are already impacting recycling markets, particularly paper (“National Sword”) • Public programs and MRFs likely to experience market-related stress • Hindsight allows market to understand what was happening with OCC

  3. What is National Sword? • A series of Chinese government actions impacting the import of recyclable materials into China • Includes ban on importation of post-consumer plastics and unsorted paper beginning Jan. 2018 • Intense scrutiny on bale quality for imported materials (0.3% contamination limits) • What’s behind National Sword initiative? • Concern about Chinese environment, seeking to end import of trash • Coupled with growth of Chinese middle class, China pivot towards looking towards their own waste stream for recyclables

  4. Fiber / Paper Prices (per ton) Last 5 Years

  5. Fiber / Paper Prices (per ton) Last 5 Years

  6. Fiber / Paper Prices (per ton) Last 5 Years

  7. Aluminum, PET and HDPE Prices (per .lb) Last 5 Years

  8. Gross Value of a Commingled Ton Over Time

  9. Gross Value of a Commingled Ton Over Time National Sword Impact On Paper Values

  10. Gross Value of a Commingled Ton Over Time

  11. Gross Value of a Commingled Ton Over Time ?

  12. Markets On the Near Horizon • “National Sword” will continue to impact pricing for recyclable commodities, especially those materials most dependent on export markets, e.g. • 3-7 plastics • Rigid plastics • Low grade plastic film • Mixed paper • Recycling industry waiting to see what will happen over next 6 months • Important considerations: • Chinese industry still needs feedstock • How will North American demand respond?

  13. Public Program Tips for Uncertain Times • Stay calm, don’t over react • No hasty decisions about accepted materials • Focus on things you can control (more in a minute) • Avoid public program dependency on revenue from materials sales • If possible, use earnings during good times to create a reserve account / rainy day fund

  14. More Tips • Establish and maintain communication and positive relationship with your processor / MRF • Support domestic demand for recyclables through post-consumer content requirements for public purchasing • Think long-term (market blips aren’t new) • Focus on program efficiency to control operating costs • Understand that periods of low value can exacerbate challenges with glass

  15. What’s a Program to Do? • Focus on materials quality and reducing contamination • Top messages for the public: • No plastic bags, no bagged recyclables!! • No trash, no tanglers!!

  16. Tools from The Recycling Partnership https://tools.recyclingpartnership.org/contamination/

  17. Rob Taylor NC DEACS rob.taylor@ncdenr.gov 919-707-8139 Thank You!

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