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Policy Synthesis on the Demographic Dividend: Experience from ADRF ’ s Working Method

Policy Synthesis on the Demographic Dividend: Experience from ADRF ’ s Working Method. Kua Wongboonsin and Philip Guest. Project objective.

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Policy Synthesis on the Demographic Dividend: Experience from ADRF ’ s Working Method

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  1. Policy Synthesis on the Demographic Dividend: Experience from ADRF’s Working Method Kua Wongboonsin and Philip Guest

  2. Project objective • To synthesize existing policy relevant research results related to the demographic dividend for policy recommendations/dialogue and to implement such policy dialogue into each country of the project members after presenting to the ADRF network

  3. Project outcomes • Practical policy measures to prolong the demographic dividend as well as to maximize the dividend with fewer gaps in capacity to enhance international competitiveness; and • the promotion of a wider scope of national and regional cooperation in related policies and actions in Asia based on a better understanding of the demographic dividend

  4. The Project Life-Cycle • Project initiation • Project identification • Project formulation • Project implementation and evaluation

  5. Project initiation • The project was initiated by the recent demographic history of Thailand • This was linked to work undertaken by the project co-ordinator on policy issues related to demographic change in Thailand

  6. Demographic Transition in Thailand Population size : 34.40 million in 1970 62.24 million in 2000 TFR : 6.4 in 1960-1965 1.82 in 2000-2005

  7. Census SPC 7 SOFT 6 TDHS 5 CPS Replacement 4 TFR 3 2 1 0 Figure 1 : Estimated Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 1960 - 2000

  8. Graph : Live Expectancy at Birth (e0) and Live Expectancy at age 60 (e60) by Sex.

  9. Fertility Assumption

  10. Number (in million) 76 74 72 High 70 Medium 68 Low 66 64 62 60 58 Year 56 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Figure 2 : Projected Population of Thailand 2000-2025: Low, Medium and High Fertility Variants

  11. 80 . 00 70 . 00 60 . 00 age 0-14 50 . 00 age 15-59 Percentage 40 . 00 age 60+ 30 . 00 20 . 00 10 . 00 0 . 00 year 2012 2003 2006 2009 2015 2018 2021 2024 2000 Consequences of Fertility Transition Figure 3 : Percent of Population below 15, 15-59 and 60 and above (Medium Fertility Assumption) Shifting age structure

  12. Percentage 70 65 High 60 Medium 55 50 Low 45 40 year 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2524 Figure 4 : Dependency Ratios (High, Medium and Low Fertility Assumption) Dependency ratio will fall from 0.52 in 2000 to 0.49 in 2009 then steadilyincrease to reach 0.62 in 2020.

  13. What is a demographic dividend? • Demographic dividend = the economic benefits that potentially derive from demographic change. Such benefits can accrue at the individual and societal levels • A demographic dividend occurs only once during a demographic transition and lasts for just a few decades • The benefits of a demographic dividend are not automatic

  14. Four conditions for attaining a demographic dividend • Demographic condition: Combination of a decline in mortality, fertility, and dependency ratio • Timing of the demographic transition: Occurs in the middle phase of demographic transition • Existing human-resource conditions: Quality of human resources • Policy conditions for a more productive workforce: economic policy, labor policy, HRD policy and financial system

  15. Project identification • As part of an existing TRF funded project, policy issues related to maximizing the demographic dividend were (and are) being explored by the project coordinator • This work in Thailand suggested the importance of both domestic and regional factors in exploring policy options to maximize the potential benefits of the demographic divided

  16. Project identification • Other countries in the region are at different stages in the demographic transition • They have valuable experiences to share • Identifying regional strategies can assist countries in the region to maximize the return they can obtain from the demographic dividend

  17. Coop: -TAC -TGV -TPC -FAC Paper: Policy Recommendations for Thailand Regional Cooperation for Policy synthesis to Upgrade regional Competitiveness An increase in the competitiveness of Thai and other Asian Economics Papers Project formulation Competiviness of Thai economy Demographic Dividend

  18. Project formulation • Project viewed as a process involving four parties: • Thai scholars • Policy makers in Thai government sector • Experts in Thai private sector • Foreign experts • Much of initial stages undertaken under an existing TRF project • This project expands the process by integrating regional dialogue

  19. Project implementation and evaluation • Administered by the College of Population Studies, Chulalongkorn University • Technical assistance provided by College of Population Studies, Chulalongkorn University and Population Council, Bangkok

  20. Identification of paper authors • The project is for one-year, and will be completed in early July 2004 • First step in implementation was to identify persons working on demographic-dividend related issues within the ASEAN region, or on issues that had relevance to the ASEAN region to write policy synthesis papers

  21. Paper topics • Five topics were selected: • Extending the demographic dividend • Maximizing the demographic dividend at the national level through education • Maximizing the demographic dividend at the national level by building labor force skills • Minimizing post demographic dividend health burdens • Regional cooperation in human resource development to capture the potential benefits of the demographic dividend

  22. Paper development • In November 2003 a seminar in Bangkok where paper authors presented drafts of their papers • In attendance were academics, policy makers, and private sector representatives • Comments for improvements for the papers provided to authors

  23. Paper presentations • The five papers are to be presented at this meeting – the 6th ADRF General Meeting • Dialogue based on the papers will not only help paper authors improve their papers after the meeting but will also initiate the regional dialogue that is an objective of the project

  24. Outcomes • Knowledge directed to policy formulations – five papers plus a synthesis paper • Dialogue – discussions at two meetings • Network – scholars, policy makers, and other working on issues in the the ASEAN region

  25. Lessons learned • Build upon country specific experiences • Identify experts in strategic areas with policy-related experience • Provide opportunities for experts to interact in an environment that includes a diverse audience • Promote continued dialogue by making results of project widely available

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