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Dutch Reference Outlook Energy and Greenhouse Gases 2001-2010

Dutch Reference Outlook Energy and Greenhouse Gases 2001-2010. Remko Ybema, ECN Policy Studies Workshop on Energy-related National and EU-Wide Projections of Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 27 to 28 February 2002 Brussels. Main clients and reports. Clients

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Dutch Reference Outlook Energy and Greenhouse Gases 2001-2010

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  1. Dutch Reference Outlook Energy and Greenhouse Gases2001-2010 Remko Ybema, ECN Policy Studies Workshop on Energy-related National and EU-Wide Projections of Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 27 to 28 February 2002 Brussels

  2. Main clients and reports • Clients • Ministry of Environment (Evaluation report climate policy) • Ministry of Economic Affairs (Energy report) • Three main reports: • Reference Outlook Greenhouse gas emissions • Reference Outlook Energy and CO2 • Reference Outlook non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions

  3. Timing of projections • Previous 1997 (scenario) • Reference outlook was prepared in 2001 and released in January 2002 • Next update expected in 2004

  4. Reference outlook: Objectives • Make most likely projection of developments in energy supply, energy use and CO2 emissions until 2010 • Specific instructions • Include implemented and adopted measures • plus two variants: • include planned measures • exclusion of new measures since 1999 • Pay ample attention to sensitivity of results to uncertain developments

  5. Description of the procedures used in latest projection • Detailed analysis of past monitoring trends • Key uncertainties: identification • In depth analysis of some sectors and markets • Choice of key assumptions (GDP growth, oil price, etc) • Simulation of energy use development per sector • Calculation of CO2 emissions • Key uncertainties: estimation of impact • Several reviews and iterations

  6. Overview of models used • Monitoring tool for historic analysis • Market simulation models • Western European gas market (GASTALE) • Dutch electricity market (POWERS) • Calculation sheet for end-use prices (tariffs) • Model for energy demand (partly) driven by economic factors • Simulation models for most end-use sectors: • Industry, Households, Service sector, Agriculture, Transport • detail in bottom up elements varies per sector • Specific energy supply models • Refinery model, Electricity, CHP, Renewables

  7. How were the policies and measures quantified? • Action by an actor depends on: • availability of measures • information for actors • incentives (regulation, financial, etc) • possible barriers • Simulation models of behaviour of actors • actors as economic agents • include “soft” elements • include interaction between policy instruments • calibrated with analysis of historic trends

  8. Description of the critical assumptions used in the projections • Assumptions • base year : 2000 • economic growth: 2.5% (optimistic outlook of CPB) • economic structure less energy intensive • crude oil price: 22 $/vat (1 Euro = 1 dollar) • population size: 16.6 million inhabitants • electricity market: not much competition

  9. Crude oil price, gas commodity price,electricity commodity price

  10. Summary of policies and measures

  11. Example: P&Ms in household sector • Minimum efficiency standards new dwellings • Regulating energy tax • Energy labels in combination with subsidies • Subsidies for solar boilers, solar PV, etc • Existing dwellings: energy advisors

  12. Total CO2 emissions: projected rate of growth will drop to 0.6 %/yr [Mton] 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Historical Reference outlook Old reference

  13. Main results for energy and GHGs (1) • For non-CO2 GHGs: 20% reduction by 2010 • Total GHG emissions almost constant • Sectors: fuel use and CO2 • decrease for households, services and agriculture • increase for transport, industry and energy sector

  14. 60 Energy sector 50 Industry 40 Transport [Mton] 30 Households 20 Services & government 10 Agriculture 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Direct CO2 emissions by sector

  15. Main results for energy and GHGs (2) • Liberalised energy markets • reduced gas price • commodity price electricity relatively high • Energy savings and CHP • Rate of energy conservation remains at 1.2 %/yr • Growth of CHP half of period 1990-2000 • Fuel mix • Almost constant for fossil fuels • Renewable energy: from 1.5% to 3.5%

  16. Key uncertain developments for energy and CO2 • Import of electricity • Natural gas price • Level of competition on market • Commodity price in other countries • Transport capacity • Growth in production capacity of energy intensive industry • Success of renewable energy • Growth in new end-uses of electricity

  17. Comparison of latest projections with previous projections • Lower CO2 level 2000 (difference 6 Mton) • more favourable economic structure than projected • higher import of electricity • Lower CO2 level 2010 (difference 12 Mton) • impact of new policies and measures • more renewables • more energy savings • lower economic growth • (higher: electricity production and transport)

  18. Recommendations • Start with analysis of past trends • Explicitly consider uncertainties • Consider the effects of liberalisation of energy markets • Use a common approach to estimate impact of policy instruments • Aim at transparency • Include reviews

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