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Hot Topics From Washington, DC

Hot Topics From Washington, DC. What’s Past May Not Be Prologue!. Scott E. Miller PHEAA smiller1@pheaa.org 10/11/10. 2010 in Focus. A Crucial And Volatile Political Year Potential To Be “Historic” Critical for President Obama’s Future Agenda

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Hot Topics From Washington, DC

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  1. Hot Topics From Washington, DC What’s Past May Not Be Prologue! Scott E. Miller PHEAA smiller1@pheaa.org 10/11/10

  2. 2010 in Focus • A Crucial And Volatile Political Year • Potential To Be “Historic” • Critical for President Obama’s Future Agenda • Political Dynamic Has Changed Dramatically from 2008 • Implications Abound for Student Aid and Higher Education

  3. Setting the Stage • February 10, 2007: Sen. Barack Obama Declares for the Presidency • January 3, 2008: Sen. Obama Wins Iowa Caucuses • June 7, 2008: Senator Hilary Clinton Concedes Democratic Nomination • November 2008: Sen. Obama Becomes President-Elect with 365 Electoral Votes • Democrats extend House majority by 21 seats • Democrats reach magic 60 Senate votes (in June when MN is finally decided) • Reduced to 59 votes with Scott Brown’s (R, MA) election in January

  4. Change! • 1955-1994 – 40-Year Democratic Control of House of Representatives • 1994-2006 – 12-Year Republican Control of House • 2006-2010 – 4-Year Democratic Control of House • 2011???? • Have Voters Lost Their Fear of Change?

  5. National Sentiment

  6. Right Direction/Wrong Track Summer of Town Halls 2008 Election Health Care Enacted Stimulus Bill Signed

  7. Health Care Reform

  8. Looking Ahead to November • Key Trends Point to Change • Will it be a “tidal wave”? • Anger Could Extend to Both Parties • Analysts Coalescing Around Republican Control of House • Republicans swamp Democrats in primary voter turnout • Republican voters more “motivated” • Democrats Likely/Possibly/Should Keep Control of Senate, Maybe! • Key States: CA, WI, NV, WA, IL, WV • Is PA in play? • 2012 could be real test of Democratic control • Will the Wave Wash Over State & Local Races? • Some Incumbents “Won’t See it Coming…”

  9. Comparisons to 1994 Post-9/11 High Water Mark (62%) Election Day 1994 22% Election Day 2008 23%

  10. Congress is Even Less Popular Today

  11. Independents Switching Sides? Summer of Town Halls Health Care Bill Signed Stimulus Bill Signed

  12. The Key Indicator? PA & National Unemployment Rates PA: Blue; National: Grey Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (8/2010)

  13. Meaningful? View of the Economy Generic Ballot • Gallup Poll – 10/5/10: • 3% Republican lead among registered voters • 13% Republican lead among “likely voters”

  14. What About the Tea Party? • Is it a Real Political Force? • 43% view favorably* • 35% unfavorably* • 8% never heard of (means 92% have)* • Is it a Bunch of “Wackos”? • Founding may have been in Bucks County, PA • Anger about stimulus bill & bailouts • Ask Lisa Murkowski, Mike Castle, Bob Bennett • Motivated Voters • Dominated low-turnout primaries • Likely to return to polls in November • Elected Members Will Be Part of Republican Caucus • Echoes of Late 1970’s*Politico/GWU Battleground Poll; September 19-22-2010

  15. Views of Tea Partiers • Recent Surveys Show Tea Party Members are “Social Conservatives” • “Values” not driving the movement • Different than Christian Coalition of 1970’s & 80’s

  16. Implications for Higher Education • Legislative Gridlock Could Preclude Major Legislation • Fewer moderates in both parties • Split control of Congress • 2012 campaign starts on November 3rd • Focus on Deficit Reduction Regardless of Outcome • Entitlement commission • Squeeze on domestic funds • Tough times for student aid funding • Across-the-board cuts??

  17. Pennsylvania Politics • Pennsylvania Races Seem More Locally Focused • Republicans Leading State-Wide Races • Several Congressional Seats in Play • Kanjorski (11th CD), Dahlkemper (3rd CD), P. Murphy (8th CD), Critz (12th CD), Carney (10th CD), 7th CD • What do they all have in common? • General Assembly Could Tip Republican • Implications for 2011 Redistricting

  18. PA Senate Race

  19. PA Governor’s Race

  20. It’s Tough to Make Predictions, Especially About the Future* *

  21. What To Watch For on November 2nd • Senate Seats: PA, FL, DE, IN, WV, IL, WI, CO, NV, CA • Republican’s need to gain 10 seats for majority • Governors Races: MA, FL, OH, IL, CA • House Races: Magic Number is 218 • Republicans need to gain 39 seats for majority • How many from PA?

  22. Hot Topics From Washington, DC What’s Past May Not Be Prologue! Scott E. Miller PHEAA smiller1@pheaa.org 10/11/10

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