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AHI + Humanitarian Action

This presentation provides an overview of Avian Influenza (Bird Flu), its potential threat to humans, and the implications for humanitarian action during a pandemic. It includes updates on IASC and AHI, past pandemics, and the challenges faced in ensuring continuity of humanitarian operations.

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AHI + Humanitarian Action

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  1. AHI + Humanitarian Action Sources: UNSIC, UNICEF, WFP, Other.

  2. Purpose of presentation • AHI basics • Update on IASC + AHI • Next steps

  3. Three Kinds of Influenza • Seasonal Influenza • An annual pattern • Usually mild, but can be serious – even fatal – in elderly • Routine vaccination available • Avian Influenza (“Bird Flu”) • Current epidemic of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Asia and entering Europe • Pandemic Influenza • Intermittent, Major morbidity and mortality, Economic and social consequences

  4. Past Influenza Pandemics 1847 42yrs 1889 29yrs 1918 39yrs 1957 11yrs 1968 1850 1900 30 – 40yearscycle 1950 No Pandemic for > 35 years 2000

  5. H5N1 is a new strain of influenza virus present in birds • The human population has demonstrated low immunity to the H5N1 strain with high mortality 2. Outbreaks have occurred in poultry, migratory birds and other fowl across SE Asia, Europe and Russia 3. This “Bird Flu” has caused millions of poultry deaths, affected household economies & infected humans What is the “Bird Flu”? Why is it a threat to humans? 2. Influenza viruses can be highly transmittable (e.g. airborne) 3. The H5N1 virus could change and become transmissible between humans

  6. ? Prerequisites for a pandemic • A novel influenza virus must emerge to which the general population has little or no immunity and for which there is no effective vaccine • The new virus must be able to replicate in humans and cause disease • The new virus must be efficiently transmitted from one human to another

  7. WHO classification

  8. Interventions P R E P A R E 1 2 StrategicActions Prevent Contain Respond Chain of Events

  9. Some knowns • A pandemic will happen at some point • Short time between detection and response • Vaccine will take x months to be developed • Pandemic is different; unique features: - surge in mortality & morbidity rates - dramatic impact on social, economic, and governance systems - social distancing/reduced human contact

  10. Some unknowns  How severe it will be?  Where it will start?  When it will occur, how quickly it will spread, how long it will last?  How governments and societies will react

  11. The epidemiological case for “Chicken Little” • More human cases • More countries affected • More deaths • Multiple species affected • Timing right for pandemic cycle—looks like 1918 but with greater chicken-human contact, faster transportation • Inadequate vaccines, anti-virals • Modernization, just in time inventory, outsourcing, globalization make us more vulnerable

  12. The epidemiological case for ostriches • No human to human transmission documented • Y2K, Swine flu (1976, US) over-reactions • Better medical care • Better communications technology • No WWI to accelerate viral spread, no wartime censorship to hide epidemics • Denial, fatalism

  13. Search for wise “owls” • As we try to make decisions under conditions of uncertainty, we would like to find some prescient experts to guide our decisions and scenarios but the experts themselves vary from Chicken Little to ostriches…how can we try to find the owl’s wisdom? ….

  14. Implications of a severe pandemic for humanitarian action  humanitarian staff levels will decrease  humanitarian operations disrupted  current humanitarian caseload dramatically affected  numbers of vulnerable will increase  essential services stretched/overwhelmed

  15. Programme & operations continuity How to continue business if …. • Borders closed • Travel restrictions, staff at home, etc. • Staff at risk? • Which activities/services to continue? • Which staff are key to new roles?

  16. Challenges to continuity of humanitarian operations  Reliance on voluntary donations  Just-in-time management system for staff & supplies  Physically decentralized but centralized management system  High proportion of expatriates in management functions  Relatively little investment in preparedness  Uneven partnerships with national NGOs

  17. Next Steps • Meeting in Geneva, 22-24 February • Mid-March IASC WG meeting in Rome

  18. “What we do now will make the difference of whether it’s 5 million or 150 million” • David Nabarro, UN System Senior Co-ordinator for Avian Flu, 2005.

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