Environmental Data Analysis with MatLab

1. Environmental Data Analysis with MatLab Lecture 3: Probability and Measurement Error

2. SYLLABUS Lecture 01 Using MatLabLecture 02 Looking At DataLecture 03 Probability and Measurement Error Lecture 04 Multivariate DistributionsLecture 05 Linear ModelsLecture 06 The Principle of Least SquaresLecture 07 Prior InformationLecture 08 Solving Generalized Least Squares Problems Lecture 09 Fourier SeriesLecture 10 Complex Fourier SeriesLecture 11 Lessons Learned from the Fourier Transform Lecture 12 Power SpectraLecture 13 Filter Theory Lecture 14 Applications of Filters Lecture 15 Factor Analysis Lecture 16 Orthogonal functions Lecture 17 Covariance and AutocorrelationLecture 18 Cross-correlationLecture 19 Smoothing, Correlation and SpectraLecture 20 Coherence; Tapering and Spectral Analysis Lecture 21 InterpolationLecture 22 Hypothesis testing Lecture 23 Hypothesis Testing continued; F-TestsLecture 24 Confidence Limits of Spectra, Bootstraps

3. purpose of the lecture apply principles of probability theory to data analysis and especially to use it to quantify error

4. Error, an unavoidable aspect of measurement, is best understood using the ideas of probability.

5. random variable, d no fixed value until it is realized d=? d=? d=1.04 d=0.98 indeterminate indeterminate

6. random variables have systematics tendency to takes on some values more often than others

7. example:d = number of deuterium atomsin methane D H D D D C C C C C H H D H H D D H D H D H H D H d =0 d=1 d =2 d =3 d =4

8. tendency or random variable to take on a given value, d, described by a probability, P(d) P(d) measured in percent, in range 0% to 100% or as a fraction in range 0 to 1

9. four different ways to visualize probabilities 0.0 0.5 P P 0 1 2 3 4 d

10. probabilities must sum to 100%the probability that d is something is 100%

11. continuous variablescan take fractional values 0 d=2.37 • depth, d 5

12. p(d) area, A d1 The area under the probability density function,p(d), quantifies the probability that the fish in between depths d1 and d2. d2 d

13. an integral is used to determine area, and thus probability probability that d is between d1 and d2

14. the probability that the fish is at some depth in the pond is 100% or unity probability that d is between its minimum and maximum bounds, dmin and dmax

15. How do these two p.d.f.’s differ? p(d) d 0 5 p(d) d 0 5

16. Summarizing a probability density function typical value “center of the p.d.f.” amount of scatter around the typical value “width of the p.d.f.”

17. several possible choices of a “typical value”

18. p(d) 0 dmode 5 mode One choice of the ‘typical value’ is the mode or maximum likelihood point, dmode. It is thed of the peak of the p.d.f. 10 15 d

19. p(d) 0 area= 50% dmedian median Another choice of the ‘typical value’ is the median, dmedian. It is thed that divides the p.d.f. into two pieces, each with 50% of the total area. 10 area=50% 15 d

20. p(d) 0 5 dmean A third choice of the ‘typical value’ is the mean or expected value, dmean. It is a generalization of the usual definition of the mean of a list of numbers. mean 10 15 d

21. step 1: usual formula for mean d data step 2: replace data with its histogram Ns ≈ ds s histogram step 3: replace histogram with probability distribution. Ns ≈ s N p ≈ P(ds) s ds probability distribution

22. If the data are continuous, use analogous formula containing an integral: ≈ p(ds) s

23. MabLab scripts for mode, median and mean [pmax, i] = max(p); themode = d(i); pc = Dd*cumsum(p); for i=[1:length(p)] if( pc(i) > 0.5 ) themedian = d(i); break; end end themean = Dd*sum(d.*p);

24. several possible choices of methods to quantify width

25. p(d) area, A = 50% dtypical – d50/2 One possible measure of with this the length of the d-axis over which 50% of the area lies. This measure is seldom used. dtypical dtypical + d50/2 d

26. A different approach to quantifying the width of p(d) … This function grows away from the typical value: • q(d) = (d-dtypical)2 so the function q(d)p(d) is small if most of the area is near dtypical ,that is, a narrowp(d) • large if most of the area is far from dtypical , that is, a wide p(d) • so quantify width as the area under q(d)p(d)

27. variance use mean for dtypical width is actually square root of variance, that is, σd.

28. visualization of a variance calculation dmin d - s d d +s now compute the area under this function dmax p(d) q(d) q(d)p(d) d

29. MabLab scripts for mean and variance dbar = Dd*sum(d.*p); q = (d-dbar).^2; sigma2 = Dd*sum(q.*p); sigma = sqrt(sigma2);

30. two important probability density distributions: uniform Normal

31. uniform p.d.f. p(d) box-shaped function • 1/(dmax-dmin) d dmin dmax probability is the same everywhere in the range of possible values

32. Normal p.d.f. bell-shaped function 2σ d Large probability near the mean, d. Variance is σ2.

33. exemplary Normal p.d.f.’s same variance different means same means different variance 0 0 40 40 d =10 15 20 25 30 s =2.5 5 10 20 40 d d

34. Normal p.d.f. probability between d±nσ

35. functions of random variables data with measurement error inferences with uncertainty data analysis process

36. simple example data with measurement error inferences with uncertainty data analysis process one datum, d uniform p.d.f. 0<d<1 one model parameter, m m = d2

37. functions of random variables given p(d) with m=d2 what is p(m) ?

38. use chain rule and definition of probabiltiy to deduce relationship between p(d) and p(m) = absolute value added to handle case where direction of integration reverses, that is m2<m1

39. p(d)=1 so m[d(m)]=1 with m=d2and d=m1/2 p.d.f.: p(d) = 1 so p[d(m)]=1 intervals: d=0 corresponds to m=0 d=1 corresponds to m=1 derivative: • ∂d/ ∂ m = (1/2)m-1/2 so: • p(m) = (1/2) m-1/2 on interval 0<m<1

40. note that p(d)is constant while p(m) is concentrated near m=0 p(d) p(m) 0 0 1 1 m d

41. mean and variance of linear functions of random variables given thatp(d) has mean, d, and variance, σd2 with m=cd • what is the mean, m, and variance, σm2, of p(m) ?

42. the result does not require knowledge of p(d) formula for mean the mean of m is c times the mean of d

43. formula for variance the variance of m is c2 times the variance of d

44. What’s Missing ? So far, we only have the tools to study a single inference made from a single datum. That’s not realistic. In the next lecture, we will develop the tools to handle many inferences drawn from many data.