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Potential GHG impacts of future LULUCF activities in developed countries

QUATERMASS: Modelling greenhouse gas baseline projections and mitigation potentials in the forestry sector and their relevance for policy. Robert Matthews, Ewan Mackie, Paul Henshall, Tim Randle, Miriam White , Gemma Miller and Paul Taylor Forest Research

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Potential GHG impacts of future LULUCF activities in developed countries

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  1. QUATERMASS: Modelling greenhouse gas baseline projections and mitigation potentials in the forestry sector and their relevance for policy Robert Matthews, Ewan Mackie, Paul Henshall, Tim Randle, Miriam White , Gemma Miller and Paul Taylor Forest Research Centre for Forest Resources & Management Alice Holt Research Station, Farnham UNITED KINGDOM

  2. Potential GHG impacts of future LULUCF activities in developed countries under the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol

  3. Kyoto Treaty/Protocol UK government Sector potentials for emissions reductions National emissions trajectories/ reduction targets Pre-emptive action Improved practice Voluntary action Research policy context UNFCCC Forestry Forestry Commission Businesses, NGOs and consumers

  4. GHG dynamics in forest systems • Emissions, removals, saturation, reversibility • Complex, time-dependent responses • Human and natural impacts • (When evaluating and monitoring measures, natural impacts need to be ‘factored out’ as part of dealing with additionality) • Risks • Outcomes are not always reliable or certain • A large number of diverse actors are involved • Indirect Land Use Change (ILUC) • Also to bear in mind • Wider impacts/co-benefits in forestry • Harvested wood products (HWP) • Contributions of biomass/HWP in Energy and Industrial sectors.

  5. Taking action in the forestry sector • Reduce deforestation • Afforestation • Changes to management in existing forests • Enhance carbon stocks (longer rotations, less production). • Supply more bioenergy/timber (more production).

  6. Basic requirements for baseline projection • A carbon accounting model applicable at large scales - CARBINE. • Data on forest areas - FAO. • Data on forest areas by age class - generally FAO. • Estimates of species composition - country reports. • Estimates of rates of afforestation and deforestation (since 1990) - country reports. • Estimates of species-site productivity - literature. • Baseline description of how forests are being managed (in/not in production, thinning regime, rotations) - country reports and calibration.

  7. CARBINE

  8. Inventory data Species/productivity/management assumptions Pre-processor • Assumptions about developments since 1990: • Afforestation • Deforestation • Assumptions about developments • from specified year: • Afforestation • Deforestation • Species • Yield class • Management regime • Rotation. Estate simulator • Assumptions about sois: • % Sand • % Loam • % Gley • % Peaty. CARBINE

  9. Carbon stocks over time Soil Trees Litter HWP (Subs.) Carbon sinks/sources over time Soil Trees Litter HWP Subs. Reporting periods e.g. 2003-2007 2008-2012... • Sinks/sources by period/activity: • ‘FRF’, A, R, D, FM.

  10. Example of pitfall that can be enountered: accounting for restocking/new planting

  11. Testing the methodology: initial, simple scenarios (Annex I countries only) • RD - reduced deforestation • AF - afforestation • FM-A forest conservation (longer rotations, reduced production) • FM-B increased biomass/timber production (light) • FM-C increased biomass/timber production (moderate) • FM-D extra biomass/timber production from forest areas previously in reserve.

  12. Initial, simple scenarios: FM-A In each country: • Suspend harvesting in 5% or 1 million hectares of forest area, whichever is the smaller. • Extend rotations in 50% of forest area already in production. • Rotations are extended by 25% or 20 years, whichever is the smaller.

  13. Afforestation Year 2020 Period 2010-2150 Based on simulations using Forest Research CARBINE model produced for UK Department of Energy and Climate Change

  14. Forest Management (conservation, FM-A) Year 2020 Period 2010-2150 Based on simulations using Forest Research CARBINE model produced for UK Department of Energy and Climate Change

  15. Additional mitigation in Energy and Industry sectors due to increased biomass and timber availability Afforestation Year 2020 Period 2010-2150 Based on simulations using Forest Research CARBINE model produced for UK Department of Energy and Climate Change

  16. Additional emissions in Energy and Industry sectors due to reduced biomass and timber availability Forest Management (conservation, FM-A) Year 2020 Period 2010-2150 Based on simulations using Forest Research CARBINE model produced for UK Department of Energy and Climate Change

  17. Summary results for 5-year period around 2030

  18. Ongoing work • Extend to globe • Potentials at carbon prices • Harmonisation with country reports?

  19. Towards implementation (QUEST JIFor) Model-based/default values Plot/survey-based Enumeration-based Inventory-based

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